**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying long odds on. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you want to think of these as recommendations to bet or lay these players then please do so, but be aware that sometimes the price will shift and you'll have to decide whether the new odds are value or not. If the new odds are only one or two increments different to what are on here then I'm sure I'd usually suggest to still play** 


Shell Houston Open @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Loss = 8.35 pts

Bank is now £1175.57 after 3 weeks (started at £1000).

Summary:
Singh was at his grinding best and was long odds on for the majority of the last round. The one thing I could've done to avoid this was back him back after his first round 74, at which stage he was 8 shots off the lead. It probably would've only taken 3/4 of a point to cover what I'd laid him for ... but then I expect I would've laid him for a bigger stake in update 5, so the end result would probably have been quite similar. Trying to consistently lay the shorter odds players it's impossible to always get it right, but it's still disappointing to have some very nice lays in there (players like Johnson, Pampling & Riley at 13.5 and under who were rarely dangerous after opposing) and still lose on the week. Hope I can get it back on the right track next week; at least there is still some profit there, and this is without any of the backs getting anywhere near contending seriously over the three weeks.


<----Click to see the current state of the book (after Page Update 6 without the Singh back having been matched and without the £5 spent on Pappas being accounted for)

Page Update #6 (as 3rd round finishes):
(Winner market)
Back Vijay Singh 3 pts @ 5 --- NOT MATCHED
Back Geoff Ogilvy 0.5 pts @ 19
Back John Daly 0.5 pts @ 22 --- BOTH MATCHED
So difficult to know what to do, not happy betting Singh at so short, but I'd hate to let some good lays go to waste and end up with a losing week. Have only laid three of the current top ten so have plenty of players onside and have decided to take at least try and take some evasive action on the other three. This seems a better course of action than trying to lay some extra players at big prices but I can't bring myself to bet Singh at his current odds of around 2.40 so I'll have to put up a back in case of a sizeable drift in his price.


Sunday night update:
I estimate the third round will be finished by about 09:30 CT / 15:30 UK time Monday (weather permitting, of course) so I would hope to get another page update online some time between 16:00 and 17:00. If the times are delayed again I'll endeavour to update as soon as the third round finishes and lets just hope they manage the four rounds. For those who don't know, you can sign up here to get email alerts the second our pages are updated.



<----Click to see the current state of the book (after Page Update 5)

Page Update #5 (after Friday's play):
(Winner market)
Lay Vijay Singh 1 pt @ 4
Lay Zach Johnson 1.5 pts @ 9.2
Lay Steve Stricker 0.75 pts @ 29
Back Justin Leonard 1 pt @ 18.5 --- ALL MATCHED
With so many players in contention this could come down to who putts the best, and if that's the case I think the clear favourite Singh is opposable. Often he struggles to make his exemplary long game count and the fact he has to try to follow an excellent round yesterday just strengthens my belief that this is a fair price to lay. For all Johnson's promise, I'm not sure he quite deserves to be this short in the betting. The field is extremely tightly packed and he'll do well to stay ahead of the pack today judging on his current position of 144th on tour in third round scoring. Possibly an unfair stat given how he's progressed, but I don't agree with the single figures for one so young at a stage where so many still have good chances. Steve Stricker has been so desperately out of form for so long now that it'll be an amazing effort if he can keep this performance up. Even way back when he was playing well he struggled to turn good play into wins so I have no hesitation laying, even at this not-exactly-short price. Getting Leonard onside as he finally seems to have sorted out his putting. Seems that was all that was holding him back and he currently sits 2nd this week for putts per GIR. And, of course, this is Texas; in his last 10 attempts in his home state he has 4 top tens (1 win) and 4 other top 25s. If he is putting as well as he can he has to be a live danger and I wouldn't want to be against him.



<----Click to see the current state of the book (after Page Update 4)

Page Update #4 (after round 1):
(Winner market)
Lay Rod Pampling 1.5 pts @ 13
Lay Chris Riley 0.75 pts @ 13.5
Lay Fred Couples 0.5 pts @ 34 --- ALL MATCHED
As I mentioned last week when laying him after round one, Pampling often starts well only to fade away, and the fact he's outright leader is helping bring his price down. Since the start of last season he has finished round one top five or better 7 times and his first round to second round positions were 2nd->21st, 5th->19th, 1st->3rd, 1st->4th, 3rd->16th, 4th->29th and 5th->6th so you can see it has to be doubtful that he'll throw another low round in today. His 2nd round scores on those occasions were 4,5,7,8,6,5 and 1 shots worse than what he shot in round one and I'd be expecting him to shoot over 70 today, in which case he definitely wouldn't be leading. Riley doesn't strike me as a confident front-runner either but he did make his score in the afternoon yesterday so deserves credit. He'll find it hard to maintain his remarkable round one putting stats though, and I'll just take a little out of him. Fancy getting our stake back on Couples as his two closing bogeys undid a very good score and I wasn't happy with his pre-tournament chat. He was saying he doesn't expect to win because his body had struggled with all the physical effort he put into the Masters. Will still keep him as a winner but am not confident he can do it now.




<----Click to see the current state of the book (after Page Update 3)

Page Update #3:
(Winner market)
Lay Vijay Singh 2 pts @ 6.8
Lay Geoff Ogilvy 0.5 pts @ 34
Lay Stephen Ames 0.5 pts @ 44 --- ALL MATCHED
I think if you have no opinion on someone's chances and they are trading at under 6/1, a little lay should be in order. It's not as if Singh is firing on all cylinders so I'll have to take a little out at this price. Not often you get to lay Ogilvy at this price and despite being tipped up by all and sundry this week he'd be way down my list of potential winners. Granted, he has a lot in his favour this week, but no more than umpteen more reliable players. Steady Stephen Ames has a good run of high finishes going but to me that suggests he's due for a lapse rather than due for a win; a little like the opposition of Verplank last week, I don't see him as good enough to keep his present run going much longer.


Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
**0.66 pts of the Couples bet earlier was not matched, I shall move it to 29 just to try and get it rounded up with the lay also going in now. I would not be going in for the full stake at 29**
Lay Fred Couples 4.5 pts @ 28
Lay K.J. Choi 0.75 pts @ 24
Lay Robert Allenby 0.75 pts @ 28
Lay Justin Leonard 0.5 pts @ 38
Lay John Daly 0.5 pts @ 36
Lay Jay Haas 0.5 pts @ 32
Back Brenden Pappas 0.25 pts @ 200 --- ALL MATCHED
Laying back most of the Couples bet if we can, leaving us hopefully with just a 0.5 pts bet at enhanced odds. The other lays are of players who are generally not deserving of such skinny odds in my opinion, either in terms of their current form (namely Allenby & Leonard, and Daly who I think has finished his purple patch) or in comparison to what their price is week in, week out (Choi & Haas). Difficult to find many big prices that appeal (may not be a bad thing going by recent backs!) but will chance a small amount on Pappas, who I had down as a sure-fire winner for this season. He has undoubtedly been disappointing but the course should suit as it seems to not punish the wayward drivers. All Couples bets matched and we have 0.5 pt at odds of over 60/1 !!


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Fred Couples 5 pts @ 32 --- 4.34 pts MATCHED**
Trying to use the trading idea that started off our plunge into the exchanges here on Tour-Tips, although we are no longer using the traditional bookmakers to get the original bet on. I think Couples' price on Betfair will be a good few points shorter in the days to come due to his excellent win here last year and his sixth last time out in the Masters.