Matchup Picks

Tournament trades (1.5pts unless stated):

Charles Howell to beat John Daly -118 @ Centrebet
Daly's bubble appears to have burst. Take out the 10th place finish at Bay Hill and his best finish in his last four starts is 69th. It was also surprising how flimsical he was he needed to get down in two shots from the back of the 18th green at the Masters to make the cut, which he failed to do. Wouldn't back Howell for the outrights - too many lessons learnt last year - but he is a far more consistent player and is coming off a top-15 finish in the Masters.

Jay Haas to beat John Daly -118 @ Expekt [3pts]
Siding with Haas in both the outrights and the matchups. If I'm opposing Daly with a player who doesn't figure in the outrights, then I'm certainly going to also oppose him with a player who does. They don't come much more consistent than this particular Tour veteran.

Jay Haas to beat Zach Johnson -130 @ WWTS
Johnson may have won this year, but this will be his debut on this course whereas Haas finished 5th last year. But one stat alone warrants this play: Haas leads Johnson 5-0-0 h2h on Tour this season and 6-0-0 h2h overall. More than enough reason for me!

Nothing more for me in this event.

Final Update: 0-3; -7.26pts

Howell/Daly LOST by 5
Haas/Daly LOST by 7
Haas/Johnson LOST by 5

The only good news is that nothing else appealed in the matchups. Could have been quite profitable, but Daly recovered from an opening 76 to hit the cut line on the mark and it was all downhill from there!

PGA Tour

Tournament Trades (2 pts):

Chris Riley to beat Robert Allenby +140 @ Olympic
Neither player is doing particularly well of late, but I just don't see the gulf between them being as great as what these odds imply. Riley may be giving up length on this long course, but as long as the reported dry conditions prevail I don't see driving distance being the deciding factor here; much more importantly, I feel, is that judging on last year's tournament Riley's waywardness from the tee won't be punished.

Briny Baird to beat Justin Leonard +120 @ Five Dimes
A matchup between two players who don't miss many cuts at all. Leonard seems to be struggling more than Baird though and has broken the top 35 on only one of his last 5 events; his putter seems to be really cold and he is languishing in 102nd place on the Putting Average stats. Previous to the Masters, Baird made the top 35 on his last 5 strokeplay events and I can see his excellent iron play giving him another decent week. A repeat of last year's 17th here should be good enough and, again, I don't see these odds are correct.

Final Update: 1-1; Profit 0.80 pts

Riley/Allenby WON by 2
Baird/Leonard LOST by 7

Leonard found his putting stroke and Baird played all-round rubbish in round 2 ..  not to mention his 34 putts in round one. At least a not-much-better Riley squeezed home against Allenby.