Spread Picks

Tournament Trades

Buy Jay Haas over John Daly 72H Match Bet at Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -7, Profit -5.81 pts)

These two players have been given a "your choice" quote by Sporting Index. This quote i believe is heavily based on the fact that the course is over 7300 yards long and therefore should suit the longer hitters. At this point i have to admit that i think Daly could have a big week as everything is in his favour, the reason though for opposing him is purely on price alone. In my opinion, given all the facts and stats, Haas should be a clear favourite. Their 2004 forms reads as follows:

Daly : 30 / 54 / 1 / 4 / 69 / 10 / 79 / mc.
Haas: 3 / 33 / 10 / 39 / 34 / 6 / 17 / 7

Haas was also 7th on this course last year when it was played here for the first time. So although it is a course that can suit the long hitters, you still need to play good golf once you get inside the "scoring range" of 100 yards and in. Recent form suggests Haas is coping with this better than Daly at the moment. I may also be tempting fate by stating this but if you take out the "name" events (Players, Tour Champs, Majors, WGC) Haas has shot 73 or less in every round he has played since the Greater Hartford Open last July. Daly can shoot really high at times and is far less trustworthy when appearing in match bets. So although he appeals as an outright bet where you know your potential loss is the unit you have staked, on the spreads he is much more volatile and it is certainly better at the prices offered to be on the side of the more consistant player.

Round One Trades

Sell John Daly over John Huston 18H MB at 2 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -25, Profit 20.25 pts)

Eggs and baskets i hear you shout, but the only common denominator is of course Daly. We are backing against a contestable price and in the case of these two, Daly is too high at 2-5 against a player who has posted a regular run of good, if not spectacular, finishes recently. Top 40 in his last 3 events compares favourable with Daly's 10 / 79 / mc, albeit the MC was at the Masters, where Huston was not present. Once again we are backing current over course as Huston missed the cut here whilst Daly was 7th but at the price offered 2 is value on a match where the price could easily flipped over in favour of Huston.

Buy Vijay Singh over Len Mattiace 18H MB at 13 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13)

This is more an opposition to Mattiace than getting with the world no. 2. Mattiace has came back from an injury suffered during a skiing holiday. He really just hasn't got going though and a 33rd at Sawgrass is his only weekend of the year in 5 events. Worrying for him though is that he has got under 70 only once in 12 rounds this year and his last 4 rounds have been 76/75/76/77. Singh is struggling to get back to the level he was at through the turn of the year. However, three top 20's in a row including 6th at Augusta suggest that he isn't that far away and it is a measure of his standing in the game now that a run of 15 / 13 / 6 is considered "not quite there yet". Singh should be a higher price as there are positives for him and negatives for Mattiace which suggest this should be more one sided than the price implies.

Sell John Daly over Tommy Armour III 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U 0, Profit 5.25 pts)

I have just noticed whilst browsing Stanley and Shaker's picks that there seems to be a collective opposition to Daly this week. All reasons given for opposing him in spreads, fixed odds matches and laying on the exchanges are all sound in that the prices are wrong.  Armour, though, does have to perform as well and his recent form has went back a little. 9th at the Honda has been followed by missed cuts in Orlando and Sawgrass, although he did make the weekend at the Heritage but only finished 71st. To oppose Daly who can shoot ridiculously high scores though at 7 is just too good an offer to refuse.

Buy Stephen Ames over Joe Ogilvie 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 11.25 pts)

This one is a case of the price being too low. Ames is a fairly consistant player who gets high finishes without ever seriously worrying those who lay him on the outright markets. 6 Top 20's in 04' including 3 in a row compares well to Ogilvie's best place 30th and a MC last week in Harbour Town. This should be a buy in double figures, so 7 is worth getting with Ames at.

Round Two Trades

Sell Justin Rose over Tom Byrum 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -22, Profit 22.5 pts)

4-7 yesterday, this has went up  due to Byrum's 82 yesterday. Arguably, though, the 82 was a blip on what has been a fairly good run for Byrum (16th at Sawgrass and a 32nd last week). If we adopt the view that Byrum will either withdraw before play if he can't be bothered or turn up and give it his best shot on a matter of professional pride, he should not be priced as far behind Rose as he is. Rose is level and is therefore ultimately concerned today with making the weekend. The only fear is that Byrum starts poorly and doesn't see the point in continuing, which would leave an automatic 25 Make-up but at an 8 start that is a risk worth taking.

Buy Vijay Singh over Len Mattiace 18H MB at 12 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 7.5 pts)

Playing up yesterdays R1 match where it took a bit of stupidity from Mattiace to get us out level. Mattiace got hit with a 2 shot penalty for a rule infringement in sand which was completely unnecessary and was the difference in the end from breaking even and losing nearly 20 points.  Reasons for the trade today are as above, and nothing said against Mattiace has changed considering his score yesterday. Singh was poor yesterday and similar today will see us struggle to get a winner here. However, we know what he is capable of and something near that coupled with Mattiace continuing his poor run will see us obtain a better return today

Round Three Trades

Buy Fred Couples over John Daly 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -31, Profit -25.5pts)

Buy David Peoples over Joe Ogilvie 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -25, Profit -19.87 pts)

These are mythical matches as R2 hasn't finished yet and there won't be enough time to price up R3 when the pairings are known.

Daly has came back well and crept into the weekend on the same mark as Jay Haas. This has led once again to a price that over-rates his chances. Couples is defending champion although i doubt he will be retaining the trophy. His seasonal stats though are quite good and he has posted 5 Top 25 places. He is just too low at 3 to beat Daly.

Basic reasons for opposing Joe Ogilvie are detailed above in the R1 trade advised. Peoples hasn't had a great year with a 12th at the Bellsouth the most he can shout about. A good weekend here though and that will be bettered. Ogilvie has 4 holes to play and ultimately will play 22 holes today if the weather holds up.  Peoples should probably be clear favourite in this market.

Buy Stephen Ames over Heath Slocum at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit 16.5 pts)

Ames, like i said above is a player who does seem to struggle on a Sunday to just take that extra step but he does get himself positioned well over the preceding days to give himself that chance. Slocum has done well this week to come back from the mental torture of last weeks finish. A R4 78 dropped him way down the field from a possible winning position. Ames is a far superior player to Slocum though at the moment and should be traded at the fairly low price.

Buy Robert Allenby over Aaron Baddeley 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 7.5 pts)

This price is wrong, pure and simple. So wrong in fact that the firm will probably rate it as an "error" and void bets. But, it has been up now online for an hour or so and is still there so if they are happy to stand the price then we should be happy to take it.

Round Four Trades (Mythical)

Buy Justin Leonard over John Daly 18H MB at 1.5 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -22, Profit -17.62 pts)

With R3 not completed yet a couple of firms have priced up players who are on roughly the same scores at the moment.
We seem to have caught Daly on Thursday during a poor round and since then he has flew up the leaderboard which unfortunately will result in a loss on our R3 trade v. Couples who has went backwards. This has prompted Sportsspread to price him as "your choice" v. Leonard which is probably an over-reaction again. Leonard hasn't really got going this season yet but he is a quality player and has played some steady golf this week. Giving up 1.5 against the erratic Daly
is a fair trade.

Sell Patrick Sheehan over Dudley Hart 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit 12.75 pts)

Strange price this, Hart has no reason to be rated as much as an outsider as he is by Spreadex. This is by far Hart's best week this season where he has only played in 5 events, with a best placed 45th. Sheehan was similar until a burst of form recently has seen him finish 3rd at the MCI and he has followed up quite well this week. Bar that 3rd though his form is only moderately better than Hart's.

Summary = 34.7 pt Profit

Slightly disappointing end to the week as John Daly became as important to our week as Wittenberg did at the Masters. Haas was looking good for a fair win on the 72H bet on Day 1 then Daly moved into another gear getting into the "long" weekend and winning two subsequent 18 Holers. Leonard collapsed somewhat on day four which didn't give us a chance to have a winning day Monday as Daly gave three late shots back. All in all we have had a good week clearing well over 60pts over the two tours.



 

PGA Tour

Tournament Trade:

Sell Briny Baird FP at 34 at Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts
The 2nd highest ranked of the field in GIR this season behind the hot favourite Singh (the only two of the current GIR top ten competing), I think that'll stand him in good stead this week. Definitely a doubtful winner but a very consistent performer nonetheless and this makes him ideal for a finishing position sell. Actually, his level of form so far this season has been slightly down on that of 2003, but I'm pretty sure it is due to his driver being a good deal more unpredictable, something that should not matter this week (I think he started trialling different drivers, lost his accuracy and has struggled to get it back). Four of his last five Texas appearances have been well inside the top 25 and he looks a good bet to at least equal last year's 17th on this course.
Result:
Baird MC, MU 50, Loss 8 pts

The highest-ranked GIR player on tour wins the event and the 2nd highest misses the cut .. typical!