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The International @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Loss = 9 pts

Bank is now £372.73 after 17 weeks (Down 31.36 pts overall).

Summary:
Just when I thought my picking couldn't get any worse, the extra staking on Sunday selections Love, Cink & Oberholser quickly goes down the drain as they all hack it round the first 12 or 13 holes in several over par. Olazabal did nothing on Sunday and yet again a most disappointing week. Bad runs are inevitable in outright golf betting but knowing that doesn't make it any easier!


Page Update #2 (after 3 rounds):
(Winner market)
Back Davis Love 1.5 pts @ 17.5
Back Stewart Cink 1.5 pts @ 19
Back Arron Oberholser 1 pt @ 50
Sorely tempted to lay the front three in the betting at combined odds of just under Evs, but with the 4th and 5th placed players not being convincing Sunday performers either, I will instead go for the bigger win on two players further back but noted for great final rounds when coming from behind, and one still looking for his first win but who is sure to find it soon and is being overlooked in the betting. Having these three along with Olazabal, another capable of super Sunday golf, will hopefully result in some much-needed profit!
Love will attack from the start and probably it will be all or nothing for him, but if he does manage to get some momentum going, anything could happen. Shot 63 to come from 7 behind to win the AT&T in '01 and just last year was simply incredible with a Sunday 64 to win the Players. Also, he shot the lights out here last year in rounds one and two so is definitely capable.
Cink, amazingly for a player so frail on the weekend when leading, currently sits 3rd in Final Round Scoring Average on tour and has already come from 9 behind the 3rd round leader to win this season. His other two wins on tour were from four behind so, again, here is a possible for a lights-out round to challenge the shaky three leaders, all of whom struggle to clinch victories.
Oberholser I really like and have already mentioned this on Tour-Tips this season. Three top-4s already this season, including one last time out, he is progressing well and I think the odds compensate for his very lowly standing on the Final Round Average list, especially as he'll very likely not be feeling any pressure to win today. Sits 2nd in GIR so far this week and has only had two bogeys (best in the field) so is obviously playing extremely well and could seriously challenge if he can get the putter working well today.


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back David Toms 1 pt @ 36
Back Mark Hensby 1 pt @ 85
Back John Rollins 0.75 pt @ 95
Back Jonathan Byrd 0.5 pt @ 110
Back José Maria Olazábal 0.5 pt @ 130
Back Patrick Sheehan 1 pt @ 150
Back Jonathan Kaye 0.25 pt @ 230
Yes, you are right, I have gone mad! Never backed seven players before in my life ... but why not at these prices? Still only spending 5 pts like I have many times before. They are listed in price order only (not order of preference), biggest value for me is Sheehan followed by Hensby. I am basing much of the analysis on birdie-making capabilities for this unique scoring format, as you will read.
Toms I am having a little 'saver' on as I just feel it could be one of those weeks where he plays unbeatable golf and runs away with the tournament. His last five events he has been 14th, 2nd, 7th & 10th for number of birdies made (even in his missed cut event he hit 9 birdies which was only one or two behind the leaders at the halfway stage) and he is a previous winner here.
Hensby is still underrated I feel. He now has 4 top-3s this season, as a virtual tour newbie, and he lies 9th in the all-around ranking, just ahead of Woods and Els. Recently secured his first tour win and promptly took three weeks off to enjoy it. Came back with a MC, but by only a single stroke, and had been third for birdies made in his win AND in his previous event and he has some other great stats that point to this event: 9th for Birdie Average (ave. no. of birdies per round) and 12th for Birdie Conversion Percentage this season. 80/1 at Coral
Rollins was 5th last year here, and 23rd in '02 (his only two appearances), and is in his best form of this season. 17th, 8th & 21st are his last three finishes and in those events he was 8th, 15th & 13th for birdies made.
Byrd I'm persevering with after a poor show last week. I'll forgive him that as he was still 10th for birdies made, and seeing as he was also 3rd for birdies made twice in his three previous events, it looks like this format could see a continuation of his return to form. 100/1 at Coral.
Olazábal is a past winner here and has made the top twenty in two of the last three years, not bad efforts considering the general state of his game over that time. As he has shown some good recent form, 14th France, 27th Loch Lomond & 12th last week in the Buick, I feel he could improve on those finishes this week. 125/1 available in places.
Sheehan is my big fancy. Could, maybe should, have won a fortnight ago and in the circumstances he didn't do badly turning straight out last week with 71-69-70-70 for 39th. His record for number of birdies made in his last four events is superb (12th, 8th, 2nd & 9th), and a continuation of that would surely see him show up far more prominently than his odds imply. Progressing all the time and has four top-15s (two top-4s) in his last 11 events, during which time he's missed just a single cut. 150/1 at Sporting Odds now the 175/1 at Stan James is gone.
Kaye is just a shot in the dark. Been a big fan of his for a long time but where his form has gone I don't know, he is far, far better than what he's been showing. Going for him this week as he is a massive price (250/1 Coral) and is playing in Colorado where he grew up and went to university. Also, he has just two weeks to improve sufficiently on his 18th place in the Ryder Cup Points list to make the team. Maybe all these factors will shake him right back up, and somehow he is still 23rd for Birdie Average this season.
Hope you're still awake after all that!