Tipster: Shaker

**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. My rate will be £20 per Point and it will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me). With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you want to think of these as recommendations to bet or lay these players then please do so, but be aware that sometimes the price will shift and you'll have to decide whether the new odds are value or not. If they are only one or two increments different to what are on here then I'm sure I'd usually suggest to still play**


The Masters @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

WINNER MARKET: +18.05 pts
ROW MARKET: -0.25 pts
18H MARKET: -4 pts

TOTAL: Profit = 13.8 pts

Click image below to see Betting History. Started with £1000, now on £1276.

 
Summary:
Pity all my backs were rubbish, and also a pity that I always saw Mickelson as too short to actually bet, but it all worked out with keeping him firmly on our side and, although we backed 4 back to varying degrees at a later stage, we laid 19 losing players at average odds of just over 33/1 (lowest 4.9, highest 80). Betfair even helped out by suspending the market precisely the moment the putt went in, saved the 10 pts @ 1.2 on Mickelson being hoovered up.


     


Page Update #8:
(Winner market)
Lay Chris DiMarco 5 pts @ 4.9
Lay Paul Casey 1.5 pts @ 12.5
Lay Bernhard Langer 0.75 pts @ 22
Back K.J.Choi 0.5 pts @ 21
Back Kirk Triplett 0.25 pts @ 55
Back Padraig Harrington 0.25 pts @ 70
Back Stewart Cink 0.25 pts @ 200
Back Davis Love 0.25 pts @ 80 --- ALL MATCHED

The following two lays are in case the players get as low as the prices stated:
Lay Phil Mickelson 10 pts @ 1.2
Lay Stewart Cink 10 pts @ 5 --- NEITHER MATCHED

Click on the box below to see our positions after matching the above bets.


Taking on DiMarco as I really don't rate his ability under pressure and this will be the most he has ever faced. Don't think Casey is ready to win a Major yet and not convinced Langer can do it either. Backing Choi and Love to cover earlier lays as they have some chance in my mind, and adding speculative backs on Triplett, Harrington and Cink just to try and eek a little extra out of this if we've got the lays right, someone will come from behind to challenge I expect. All in all I really think this is Mickelson's week with Cink looking great value at anything over 150/1; he may wilt when he hits the front but he's definitely capable of firing in a very low round when coming from behind.


Page Update #7 (3rd rd 18H bet):
(Olazabal v Choi)
Back Olazabal 4 pts @ 2.08 --- MATCHED --- LOST
Olly has the most remarkable record here, even when coming into the event out of form, and now he's involved in the leaders I can't see him backing off. Choi looked to be taking the tournament by the scruff of the neck when scorching to the turn yesterday but he struggled badly coming home and it'll be a brilliant effort if he can progress again today. He's quite susceptible to following good play with a very poor round and I'm happy to take this inconsistency on, even if Choi would be heavy favourite on almost any other course.


Page Update #6 (after 2nd round):
Click the box below to see the state of our book at the half-way stage. Only Rose and Woods of the lays are currently under odds of 25/1 in the Betfair market. Again, if the text is too small to read, rest your cursor for a second somewhere on the image and then click on the little 'button' that appears in the bottom right-hand corner of your screen. This will enlarge the image and make it readable.


(Winner market)
Lay Ernie Els 2 pts @ 8.4 (CANCEL lay at 2.5 from Page Update #5)
Lay Davis Love 1.5 pts @ 12.5
Lay K.J. Choi 1 pt @ 22 --- ALL MATCHED
Don't want to be totally against Els with his record here but I just feel he's not firing on anywhere near all cylinders. Have this niggling feeling he may struggle today and have to take something out of him just in case. Wanted to lay Tiger again really, but I see he rarely struggles in round 3 here so will wait until after that, if he does fail today that's all well and good because we're still against him. Who knows what Love will do today? After a 67, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a tough day. And somewhat similarly Choi, as he is now very possibly on a permanent slide down the leaderboard after his early fireworks yesterday. He will do incredibly well to bounce back from playing the back nine +4 after -6 on the front. After these lays we still have Mickelson, Olazabal, Cejka, DiMarco, Couples, Sluman, Flesch and O'Meara as 'skinners' (haven't laid at all) who are under par and in the top 13.


Page Update #5 (pre-day 2):
(Winner market)
Lay Ernie Els 5 pts @ 2.5
Lay Justin Rose 1.5 pts @ 17.5
Back Tiger Woods 0.5 pts @ 17
Lay Colin Montgomerie 0.5 pts @ 46
Back Stuart Appleby 0.5 pts @ 60
Lay Charles Howell 0.5 pts @ 50
Back John Rollins 0.5 pts @ 200 --- ALL MATCHED (except for ELS lay)
Don't fancy Rose at all to remain at the summit for very long, and also feel that Monty's under-par position won't last long. Howell is a very unlikely winner in my opinion so we'll take a little of him while we can too. Backing Tiger just to take the edge off our liability on him as many of the other lays went well for us, and we'll just omit Appleby from that list by backing him back as he is still very much in this at a decent price. Not badly placed at +1 and now he's started fairly well, he could be just the type of player to excel in these difficult conditions. The final back is just a gut feeling that this could be the BIG dark horse that always seems to contend in Majors these days. Rollins has had the most awful year imaginable but how often do players bounce right back with no warning? Won't ignore him just because he isn't a 'name', he is a fine player when on form and could still finish round one under par. Putting the Els bet in just in case he gets firing really early and contracts to a silly price. Will hang onto the pre-tournament backs of Riley and Faxon as they are 2nd and 4th out respectively in round 2 and have great chances to get properly involved in this Masters.


Click image below to see pre-tournament market positions of the top 19 players in the Betfair list. If the text is too small to read, rest your cursor for a second somewhere on the image and then click on the little 'button' that appears in the bottom right-hand corner of your screen.



Page Update #4:
(Winner market)
Back Chris Riley 0.5 pts @ 170
Back Fred Funk 0.25 pts @ 370
Back Rocco Mediate 0.25 pts @ 530 --- ALL MATCHED
Riley is a big price for one with the short game skills he possesses. Almost a winner this season and has contended in Majors before. 23rd on his debut last year, I'd not be at all surprised to see him show up. Funk and Mediate are very doubtful winners, but they both have oodles of experience and have challenged in Majors before. No real Masters form to speak of but these prices are just massive and they are big enough names that if they show up early they will have their backers for us to be able to lay off without giving it away. I expect this to be the end of our pre-tournament outrights but will undoubtedly be getting involved after round one.


Page Update #3:
(Winner market)
Back Shigeki Maruyama 0.75 pts @ 100
Lay Adam Scott 0.5 pts @ 30
Lay Darren Clarke 0.5 pts @ 44 --- ALL MATCHED
I think Maruyama is well overpriced in the general market and getting the three figures would be about twice what he was trading at for his last event, the Players Championship. 4th/2nd/11th/6th were his 4 strokeplay finishes before that event and he seems to have stepped to a different level this season. His short game seems particularly good nowadays and that's what is needed here. Haven't laid Scott and Clarke to the hilt as they could obviously challenge at some point and this would leave me scope to lay them again if need be. Just feel Scott won't be winning this event so soon after the brilliant Players effort whilst Clarke is a law unto himself and you'd usually find he'll beat himself even if he does get into contention.


Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Lay Mike Weir 1 pt @ 34
Lay David Toms 0.5 pts @ 75
Lay Robert Allenby 0.5 pts @ 80 --- ALL MATCHED
Hard to see Weir being able to secure a second successive Masters, even if we were ignoring the run of poor form he's slipped into. Toms was nothing short of woeful last week, especially on and around the greens, and a similar performance here will see him having the weekend off. He is probably still struggling with his wrist and at least has that excuse - Allenby, on the other hand, is consistently infuriating on the greens and a decidely below-average record here supports the view that his short game is simply not good enough for this challenge.

(Top Rest of World market)
Back Angel Cabrera 0.25 pts @ 40 --- MATCHED --- LOST
Would like to see him start challenging leaderboards in the big events again and possibly he has found some form again and may do so. Recent finishes of 12th at Tucson and 17th at Doral are encouraging and this price looks decent when you see his record of 10th/9th/15th here the last three years. Surely hasn't enough bottle to win the title but could give us a good run in this market and I'm happy to speculate the minimum stake.
 

Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Brad Faxon 0.5 pts @ 190
Lay Tiger Woods 5 pts @ 5.7
Lay Chad Campbell 0.5 pts @ 42
Lay Stuart Appleby 0.5 pts @ 55
Lay Kenny Perry 0.5 pts @ 60
Lay Sergio Garcia 0.5 pts @ 60 --- ALL MATCHED
Don't see the short game requirements at Augusta suiting Campbell, Perry or Garcia, and their records back that up to differing degrees. Appleby has next to no form here and is still inconsistent while Woods has to be taken on in the current climate. Faxon has some splatterings of current form and has sneaky-good course form, especially when considering the last two Masters have been played in soft conditions thus making the course play much longer. I don't expect him to win it but he is a very big price indeed and I could see him playing well and challenging at some stage.