Mercedes Championship

Matchup plays (1.5 pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Chad Campbell -115 @ Five Dimes
Campbell will undoubtedly be reappearing in this event next year, but not courtesy of a win this week. His accurate play is not suited to this wide-open course and he has struggled on his two previous visits to Hawaii. This will be his debut on this course and he should struggle to beat a player as consistent as Weir and who has already competed on this course three times already.
(available generally)

Mike Weir to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Just don't see Clarke in the same class of player as Weir, or least week-in, week-out. He finished 46th and 19th on this course in the Kapalua International in 1995 and 1996 and has no other experience of Hawaiian conditions. Clarke finished 15 shots behind Weir in their last competitive event, the Target World Challenge, and a similar margin may very well be repeated this week.
(also available at Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Intertops)

Kenny Perry to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Olympic [3 units]
Perry also finished ahead of Clarke in the Target World Challenge and is also tipped to repeat the feat. With an impressive 3rd place two years ago, the outright selection looks set for a decent week this week, while Clarke should be no better than mid-table.
(available generally)

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -110 @ BetInternet [4.5 units]
This will be a steep learning course for the young Australian. After one impressive and one indifferent event in Australia last month, he will be making his debut in Hawaii this week. He could easily struggle on the vast and very slow greens at Kapalua and there really is no substitute for course experience. Backing the outright selection again.
(also available at BetandWin)

Fred Couples to beat Jonathan Kaye -111 @ NordicBet
At 66/1, Couples was a tempting selection for the outrights, particularly given his record on this course: 17th (1987), 5th (1992), 1st (1993), 1st (1994), 9th (1995), 2nd (1996) and 10th (1999). However, he looks a much safer bet against Kaye who has never played this course and has finished 27th, 28th, mc and mc in four attempts at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Rory Sabbatini to beat Shaun Micheel -130 @ Aces
Buoyed by partnering Tim Clark to victory in the World Cup in November, this could be one of Sabbatini's better weeks. I can't see him repeating his 2nd place finish in the 2001 event, but he will surely compete more than Micheel who has never played this course and has missed the cut in four of six attempts at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
(also available at Olympic, Pinnacle and Five Dimes)

Kirk Triplett to beat Shaun Micheel -120 @ Five Dimes
Will also side with Triplett to beat Micheel given his considerable experience in Hawaii. He has played on this course eight times and finished in the top-20 on six of those occasions. Not one to win this event, but certainly much less likely to finish last.

Adding (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to beat Chad Campbell -138 @ Bet365
Will pit Weir and Goosen against Campbell this week. Not as attractive odds as with the Canadian, but Goosen does have a much better chance of winning this event as outlined in the outrights selections. He is a proven player in Hawaii and that is something that Campbell has yet to achieve.
(also available at Aces, Pinnacle, Five Dimes and Olympic)

Vijay Singh to beat Davis Love -135 @ Five Dimes
Love is a proven player in Hawaii as his record in the Kapalua International on this course will attest, but even though he finished in the top-3 in six of eight starts in that event in the 1990s, the last one was in 1997. His two appearances on this course since that time have resulted in finishes of 8th and 16th, which do not compare to Singh's performances in the last four years. With the 2003 Money List winner holding a 8-3-1 h2h lead on PGA Tour events over the past year, there is still value in these odds.

Final update: 3-6-0; -12.69 units

Weir/Campbell LOST by 2
Weir/Clarke LOST by 14
Perry/Clarke LOST by 12
Perry/Scott LOST by 8
Couples/Kaye LOST by 4
Sabbatini/Micheel LOST by 6
Triplett/Micheel WON by 7
Goosen/Campbell WON by 10
Singh/Love WON by 10

Ugly start to the year with Perry, in particular, being rather costly this week. It should only get better from this point onwards!