Mercedes Championship

Outright plays (1.5 pts):

Jim Furyk to win 12/1 e.w. available generally
No surprises here. Furyk has been a selection in this event for the past two years, though little chance of getting the 30/1 available two years ago. He has won in Hawaii three times, including this event in 2001, and likes this course so much that he has a house next to the course. No surprise that he has finished in the top-10 every year since 1997 and he certainly shouldn't be out of it this year.

Retief Goosen to win 16/1 e.w. @ Tote [1/5 1-2-3-4-5]
Maybe it's the ability to spend the close season in a warm climate, but Goosen does tend to start new seasons in very good form. In 2001, he finished 2nd in two of his first strokeplay events of the year; in 2002, he finished in the top-5 in four of his first five starts, including two wins; and in 2003, he finished in the top-five in four of his first five starts. One of those was in this event and the player who finished 1st and 3rd in his last two PGA Tour events of 2003 looks very capable of catching out the other players who will be rather rusty.

Kenny Perry to finish in the top-four 7/1 @ Centrebet
Perry should certainly be rusty, but he was very impressive when finishing 3rd on his debut in this event two years ago. Despite a cold putter, he only finished one shot behind Garcia. His incredible run of form in the middle of last summer may seem a long time ago, but these odds look rather large for someone who can compete at this level and has done so on this course.

Final update: 1-2; -1.35 units

Furyk 11th
Goosen 4th
Perry 15th

Would have been difficult to beat the impressive Appleby and Singh, but Goosen did have a share of the lead on the 2nd day and Furyk had been very much in contention until double-bogeying the easy par-5 last hole in the 3rd round. Small loss on the outrights, but Goosen does appear to be playing well and could easily be backed again very soon.