Mercedes Championship

Bet 1 - Sell C Campbell over K Perry at 1.05 with Sporting Index for 1pt using their "My Matchmakers" option. M/U 0, Profit +1.05

Having won his first event last season this is Campbell's bow at the Mercedes and he may need the year to get used to the course he is about to face. A player whose strength is his pinpoint driving and hitting regular small greens, this week he plays a course which has greens a full 50% bigger than the tour average. Also with wide fairways it is not really in my opinion a course that Campbell may be able to use his strengths on. Perry was #1 for GIR hit here two years ago and although i cant see Perry having a big week i have him as clear favourite by a good couple of strokes in this match. Therefore the chance to get over a stroke start is too good to resist.

Bet 2 - Sell A Scott over J Huston at 2.05 with Sporting Index for 1 pt using their "My Matchmakers" option. M/U 14, Profit -11.95

Similar here with Scott making his debut on the course. Some statistical analysis i read at the weekend showed that Scott is very poor on courses where hitting the greens is easy. With the size of these greens the Plantation course had understandably the highest "greens hit" % in 2003. Huston meanwhile is a player of whom stats have shown plays well on the easier courses and his Hawaii record is excellent having been 5th here in 01' and having a great record playing every year in the Sony Open, which, although the course is different the players still have to contend with the famous local "trade winds". Getting over 2 strokes start when you have course/local weather experience and with the above known knowledge also makes this a great bet to start the year off with.

Bet 3 - Sell T Woods over J Huston at 9.65 with Sporting Index for 1 pt using their "My Matchmakers" option. M/U 16, Profit -6.35

Playing up Huston against the unlikeliest of opponents. However, value is on our side here. In 4 Mercedes' in Hawaii, Woods has been 10th, 8th, 1st and 5th. Compare that to Furyk (6/4/1/4/9) or Els (1/3/2) and you can tell that Woods doesn't own this event the way he owns the Bay Hill (1/1/1/1). I priced this around 5 strokes so to get a start of nearly 10 with a ceiling of 25 strokes is excellent value. In the one year they both played this event Huston won by 3 so hopefully we can get a repeat 3 years later.

Bet 4 - Buy D Clarke Finishing Position at 12 with Sporting Index for 1 pt. M/U 3, Profit -9

Note: F/Posn. bets will normally be 0.5pt trades due to the volatility and the risk of a missed cut. However with a range of only 30 places here the volatility is greatly reduced.

Buying Clarke as there are so many question marks over him that 12 could turn out to be a great price. He seems to score better on easier putting courses, has no course/local weather experience and has only covered this spread 8 times in 45 attempts on the PGA tour. OK, it is a reduced field but it has a lot of quality and 12 is too low in my opinion.

Post round 1:

Bet 5 Buy Jim Furyk on Spreadex's Super 10 Index list at 14 for 0.5 pts. M/U 0, Profit =-7

Furyk hasnt been out the top 10 here since the Mercedes moved to Hawaii in 99 and there is nothing in yesterdays play to suggest that record will go this week. Tied 1st for greens hit, he shot 70 only because he didnt make many putts, averaging over 1.8 per round which held him back a little. I would pitch Singh here as favourite with Furyk just behind so 14 is fairly low in a market that pays 50-30-20-10.

Take the 14 at Spreadex as although he is 13 at Sporting they have Clarke (-6) in their list whereas Scott in Spreadex's (-3) is equal with Furyk.

Bet 6 Sell Jim Furyk Finishing Position at 10 with Cantor Sports  for 0.5 pts. M/U 11, Profit -1

For the same reasons as above, Furyk is under-priced here with Cantor. As low as 9-10 in three other places, 10 is just a little too high for a player already handily placed and of greater ability than most in this field. We are only going half a point due to the low price being taken and the downside being higher than the upside.

Bet 7 Buy JL Lewis Finishing Position at 18.5 with SportsSpread for 1 pt. M/U 22, Profit +3.5

Lewis didnt really do a great deal yesterday bar get an eagle on the last. It allowed him to finish -3 and in the top 10. However he took 30 putts, and hit only 78% of greens (Tied 18th). 18.5 is a fair price to take given the quality of field against him (19 is also ok at most other firms).

Bet 8 Sell Adam Scott over Kenny Perry on a 72 Hole Match with Spreadex at 3.1 for 1 pt. M/U 8, Profit -4.9

Final bet for today on a match i nearly put up yesterday. Having a second chance to do so at odds in our favour, this time i will. The reasons for opposing Scott are highlighted above and we are backing here more on the belief that Scott is over-rated than Perry being under-rated. Scott currently leads by 4 mainly due to Perry taking 33 putts yesterday, hopefully he can improve that today.

Summary.

A poor end to the week after a good start. Unfortunately any small wins made were wiped out by a shocking 81 (the week's highest score) by John Huston in R4. This left us with a big loss on the Scott match and turned a potentially good win against Woods into a fair loss having been well ahead at the half way point. Scott done very well over the weekend and therefore turned his match around with Perry as well. All in all, a disappointing week but that's Spread betting. With the volatility involved you get big swings from week to week and from a fairly comfortable position on Saturday morning most of the trades went backwards from there on in.