Tipster: Shaker

*** Please note, trading plays were posted in January only to highlight the benefits of introducing Betfair into your golf betting. By backing players at standout early prices and then laying back at the lower odds on Betfair, you can have extremely large odds on a player to win an event. This is a simple process that, once learned, can be applied to any golf betting market.

There are many other advantages to using Betfair and Shaker will now be introducing these instead of concentrating on trading alone. His Betfair plays will be found on this page. Trading advice will continue to be given on this page only during February and these will not be 'official' plays, so specific staking and lay-price advice will not be given. However, these bets should be virtually risk-free given the price that you will be able to lay on Betfair.

Nissan Open

Outright play:

Tim Herron 0.5 pts at prices down to 170 (currently 200)

Six top fives for 'Lumpy' last year on his return to form with the putter, all that was missing was a win. 3 of those top fives were in his last 8 events of 2003 and during that time he was going off at 50/1 in decent fields, alongside the likes of Riley and Howell who are still going off at those prices these days. Herron hasn't done much wrong this season, having just struggled a little on the greens, and I think it's far too early for him to be trading at these prices. Although he hasn't much form here, I think the difficulty everyone will have in finding the greens this week will suit him, he has some very good finishes under similar conditions in his career, and I'm more than happy to chance half a point on odds which are around 50% more than the still-pretty-generous 125/1 top price of the bookmakers.

Update:

Playing very well and we really should get our stake back here but I'm not happy selling out at the available odds of 36 and upwards, that's too high and I'd rather take the chance and stick with it. Just in case he starts well, we'll put up some bets for the duration of the third round. Put up to Lay Herron 0.5 pts @ 21, 1 pt @ 11, 2.5 pts @ 5 at Betfair. Please note that the third round is kicking off early due to forecast bad weather and all players will be on the course by about 17:00 UK time.

After the 3rd round:

OK, so it's incredibly long odds but we'll leave those bets up just in case something truly remarkable happens. Herron's price unfortunately only got as low as 23 last night. Hundreds were matched at 28 and just another birdie or two at that time would have got us something back.

Summary:

Lost our half a point ultimately but had a real run at massive odds for the second week running.
Total points staked: 0.5 ... Total points laid: 0 ... Profit = -0.5 pts.