Tipster: Stanley

Nissan Open

Matchup plays (1.5 pts):

Jay Haas to beat Fred Funk -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Funk may have finished in the top-10 in the last two years at Riviera, but he has hardly started the 2004 season in good form: a top-finish of 36th in three events. Haas has finished ahead of him in both their common events and should do so again with such a difference in current form.

Jay Haas to beat Rocco Mediate -118 @ Expekt
With missed cuts and no round under-par in each of his last two events, Mediate should also have concerns about his form. Haas has also finished ahead in both of their two common events this year, but with a 9-2-1 h2h record against Mediate in the past year anyway, this looks to be an advantage that will continue for the Tour veteran.
(also available at WWTS)

Mike Weir to beat Sergio Garcia -130 @ Carib
Weir only needed his putter to defrost and he would resume his form of 2003 and this he has done with top-5 finishes in each of his last two starts. Having also won this event last year, there seem good reason to expect another string performance from the Canadian and that will be more than enough for the re-emerging, but still inconsistent, Spaniard.
(also available at Aces)

Adding (1.5pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Jesper Parnevik -160 @ Five Dimes

Parnevik's return to form is great to see, but he is still not the player of the current Masters Champion. He has three top-10 finishes in five events this year and still has finished behind Weir in the last two of their three common events. Weir looks set for a good week and if he does then Parnevik will not be able to stay with him.

David Toms to beat Rory Sabbatini -125 @ WSEX and Intertops [3pts]

Toms is returning from injury and should be backed with caution, but he is still a far better player than Sabbatini who has missed the cut or withdrawn from three of five events, finished 25th of 30 in the Mercedes Championship and only showed any sort of form last week in the Buick Invitational. He is not a player who can put together a good run of form and looks more likely to miss the cut than make it. Even a recuperating Toms can surely beat that.

Matchups - Final update: 3-2-0; -1.13pts

Haas/Funk LOST by 1
Haas/Mediate WON by 8
Weir/Garcia WON by 10
Weir/Parnevik WON by 6
Toms/Sabbatini LOST by 5

Three good wins, but a small loss overall.

 

Tipster: Shaker

Nissan Open

Matchup plays (1.5 pts):

K.J. Choi to beat Shigeki Maruyama -110 @ SkyBet
Looking to oppose Maruyama this week because I think he struggles on tight courses and, supporting that thinking, he really has a terrible record here. Going with Choi in this matchup as he tends to keep some form once he finds it and had a very fine 5th place here last year when he was in the running throughout.

Robert Allenby to beat Shigeki Maruyama -110 @ BlueSq
Not difficult to take Allenby here as I think he is the opposite to Maruyama in that he actually performs better on tough courses. In decent form and a past winner here, he is a consistently fine player with only 2 missed cuts in his last 16 months on the PGA Tour.

Mike Weir to beat Vijay Singh +175 @ Centrebet

Obviously tough to take on Singh but he's not got much of a record here plus I'm slightly surprised to see him turn out in this particular tournament immediately after finally running out of puff last week. I really fancy Weir to have a good week and feel he is now one of the very best players on tour, in terms of his all-round game and also his consistency. The price is the clincher for me, Weir is only priced +110 and +120 with the other two firms that offer this matchup.

Adding (1.5pts):

Nick Price to beat Jay Haas +121 @ Pinnacle

Little against Haas apart from his trend of the last two years of starting the season well before slipping to a poor finish here at Riviera. What points me to this matchup particularly is that almost everywhere I look I make Price slightly superior to Haas, even more so when comparing their course results in recent years. Price has a 3-1 h2h record over Haas at this venue and an even more impressive 17-5-2 h2h record over the last 3 years. The price is therefore very appealing to say the least.

Loren Roberts to beat Briny Baird -115 @ Five Dimes

Roberts has a consistent record here with 3 top 30s in the last 4 years whilst Baird has a 37th in '02 and a MC last year to his name. Roberts plays these tough courses well and with Baird struggling with almost all aspects of his game so far this season I'd make Roberts a fairly warm favourite in this matchup. Baird admitted before last week that his trademark straight driving had deserted him, and if he has lost that he has very little to offer, particularly on a course as tight as this.

Fred Funk to beat Shigeki Maruyama +130 @ Five Dimes

Apologies for opposing 'Smiler' a third time but it cannot be resisted, especially when it's at this price with a very accurate player who has finished T3 and T9 the last two years here. I am not worried about his lack of form so far this season, he has been playing on courses that to my mind do not play to his strengths and that is something that certainly shouldn't apply at Riviera.

Robert Allenby to beat Chris DiMarco +100 @ Stan James

As stated before, I have respect for Allenby when a tough course is the prospect. That is the opposite to what DiMarco's form implies. Of course, he is good enough to contend anywhere on his day, as a past 6th place here shows, but his other course results show 3 missed cuts and a 31st from 4 attempts. The past winner whom the course suits as outsider against a player who has little course form and seems to do best on low-scoring, easier, layouts ... that'll do for me.