Tipster: Andy

Nissan Open

Round One Trades

Bet 1 - Buy Vijay Singh over Spike McRoy 18H MB at 14 with Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 0, Profit -10.5 pts)
There are a lot of negatives flying around for Singh after a missed cut last week. He looked tired, he needed a rest, his course form here is poor. Only the last can be confirmed as fact, the others are purely speculation. However, we are talking about the guy famous for putting in the most practice on tour. Maybe, just maybe, the MC last week gave him all the rest he needs and he is finally ready to challenge Tiger Woods, which he failed to do last week. McRoy in 4 events has missed two cuts and finished out-with the top 60 of those two events that he did qualify for the weekend on. Last week at Torrey Pines he finished 77/80 to go right down the field to the bottom. He may take some time to recover from that.

Bet 2 - Buy Stewart Cink over David Frost 18H MB at 6 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 31, Profit 18.75 pts)
First time out for Frost this year although he did play in his native South Africa where he missed the cut in the SA Open and the Dunhill, then posted Top 25 finishes in the less glamorous Nashua Masters and Dimension Data Pro-Am. Cink  has current form of 10th and 14th although his 10th could have been so much better as he blew up on the final day. However, we are backing him on Thursday here not Sunday afternoon. Cink is arguably in better current form enough to warrant a bet. Their course form is another factor. Frost is 50/43/MC in three events from 99-01 whereas Cink has played twice more in that time with results of 62/5/20/37/17.

Round Two Trades

Buy Vijay Singh over Spike McRoy 18H MB at 13 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit -19.5 pts)
One of the quirks of 2 ball betting before the cut is that usually you will get the same price or slightly better than a R1 trade that lost, whereas you won't generally get the chance to play up your winners at similar price you won with. I believe that what has happened in R1 is nowhere near as important as all the stats and reasons that made the original bet value, so very rarely will be refuse a chance to get our losses back on a Friday. With Singh and McRoy yesterday it was a case of our player struggling whereas McRoy just toddled along to a predictable par score. Hopefully today Singh will kick on and make the cut with some ease and at least we get the chance to bet at a point less than we did on day 1.

Sell Fred Couples over David Toms 18H MB at 4 with Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit -6.75 pts)
This is priced high for two reasons, there are various media reports as to the current fitness of Toms, with this being a comeback from a long injury and being his first event of the year. The 2nd reason being Couples won on day 1 by 5. However, over and above those two reasons Toms, is now, a far better player than Freddie and if he has got the cobwebs off is a stonking good bet at the price. Toms' record here isn't great but its in his interests given the circumstances to get as much match practice as possible. So he won't want to miss the cut with the $1 million Matchplay event only a week away. Couples may play a little more conservatively today and get himself into position for the weekend rather than try and shoot the lights out.

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Tom Pernice Jr. 18H MB at 1 with Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit -13.5pts)
Baddeley won this 2 ball yesterday by 5 strokes but this now puts this R2 matchup up as a betting opportunity. Pernice, on this tour, is probably a bit more reliable than the erratic Aussie who has struggled since his impressive 2nd in the Sony in 03' to Els. Baddeley has posted scores over 76 five times in the last year compared to Pernice's two.  Also, recent form for "Badds" is poor, mc/mc/40 in February compares poorly with Pernice's 59th, 7th and 10th. Pernice has a bit to find to reach the cut, being currently +4 but we only need him to beat his opponent today.

Summary (Weekly Record - 31.5 pts)

Everyone has these weeks when everything just goes wrong. This was one for me, all these bets over the three tours were sound but on the whole most failed and some by a fair way. Another week and it would be the exact opposite. Over the season the win/loss ratio is 25-19 which i would like to be higher. Over the season though i would expect a long term profit but there will be days where it all seems to go wrong or all right. This has just been one of the bad days.
 

Tipster: Shaker

Nissan Open

Sell Nick Price FP 0.5 pts at 34 with Spreadex (MU 50, Profit -8 pts)
Over the last two years we'd have collected on this bet at least twice as many times than we would have lost on it. And with the past course form being good and characteristics of the course suiting him down to the ground this looks a very decent play.

Sell Fred Funk FP 0.5 pts at 37 with Sporting Index, Cantor Sport (MU 35, Profit 1 pt)
Funk's credentials aren't quite so obvious without delving deeper, but I have and I think his record on similarly tight courses suggests that he'll do well this week, particularly when we see his high finishes the last two years here. Hasn't had conditions to suit so far this season so we are getting a good price because they think he's out of form. But Funk is so steady these days that he is generally very reliable and performs decently when the course suits his game, whether he had a bad finish last time out or not.

Sell Chris DiMarco/Charles Howell 72H MB 0.5 pts at 0.65 with Sporting Index (MU 7, Profit -3.18 pts)
Sell Chris DiMarco/Chad Campbell 72H MB 0.5 pts at 1.45 with Sporting Index (MU -1, Profit 1.23 pts)
Both these matchups are attainable using the very useful 'My Matchmakers' option which Sporting Index provide. They are based on similar criteria, namely selling DiMarco as favourite against two players with huge potential on a course that I think should suit them much more than him. Both of the picks are struggling for results but there is a suggestion Howell has only just recovered from being unwell and I think it's only a matter of time before Campbell's short game recovers and starts rewarding his almost-always sound long game. Both had good finishes at Riviera last year.

Buy Hidemichi Tanaka/Geoff Ogilvy round 1 18H MB 0.5 pts at 1.5 with Sporting Index (MU 13, Profit 5.75 pts)
Tanaka is a steady player of tight courses whereas Ogilvy's record on them is more erratic. Ogilvy seems to be struggling for form and I can't see any reason why the difficulty of the course here is going to bring an improved performance from him. Tanaka, on the other hand, is playing nicely enough and has started his two tournaments this year with rounds of 67 and 69. Ogilvy's opening round here last year was 79.

Round Three Trades

Sell Jesper Parnevik/Paul Azinger 18H MB 0.5 pts at 3 with Cantor Sport (MU -40, Profit 21.5 pts)
Two trades for round three and they're both on the basis that the putting now seems to be what's splitting the leaders from the also-rans. Parnevik is playing his sixth consecutive week and the stats are finally showing signs of decline. He has started 2004 really, really well but Azinger has also enjoyed a similar return to form this season and actually looks the better this week. Despite dropping 6 shots in two consecutive holes on the front nine in round one he has played brilliantly and stood second for both birdies and for putts per GIR in the first two rounds. A super price I think, all things considered.

Sell Briny Baird/John Daly 18H MB 0.5 pts at 0 with SportsSpread (MU -13, Profit 6.5 pts)
Daly is quite simply the best putter on the planet at the moment and is playing very well tee to green also. Baird, too, seems to finally have his game in good shape after some very ropey performances so far this season but the reasons for doubting his ability to progress from here this week are twofold. First, he admits that he's suddenly found his swing again but the wind and rain will be giving that a thorough test today. Secondly, he is putting well so far this week but that really is not his strength and, again, I'd be far from certain that that would hold up in this difficult third round. I can't see the weather knocking Daly out of his stride today (any wayward driving this week is seemingly not being punished as it usually is at Riviera) and his short game is in a different league to Baird's.

Round Four Trades

Buy Stewart Cink/Luke Donald 72H MB 1.5 pts at 8.6 (current diff. 8) with Sporting Index (MU 7, Profit -2.4 pts)
Discounting the round in the pressure cooker of the Buick Invitational final group last Sunday, Cink has done little wrong for a good while now and his game is holding up very well this week. His iron play is good and his putting more than acceptable. Donald has been playing well too, but this is a course where he had missed both cuts prior to this week and his efforts since a decent first round have pretty poor. In fact, his long game statistics have got progressively worse all week and his putting stats are nowhere near that of Cink's. They've both been in the limelight a lot lately but Cink is coping far better this week and I can see no reason why Donald should suddenly perk up his game today. In fact, I feel he could struggle quite badly. With the lead out of reach I envisage Cink carrying on the good work and shooting a decent score today; on past results here, not forgetting this week's work, the course obviously suits him far better than it does Donald.

Sell Mike Weir/Vijay Singh 72H MB 2 pts at 12.2 (current diff. 13) with Cantor Sport (MU 11, Profit 2.4 pts)
This is a big day for Weir as he has never gone on to clinch a win after leading on day three, despite having 5 attempts at doing so. I'm sure he'll play fairly conservatively and try to allow his tremendous putting to seal the victory, but he has just putted so magnificently all week that it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever were it to desert him somewhat today. So with the pressure and much more to worry about than Singh, I think it's a knocking bet for big Vijay to outscore him today. This course has never been a happy hunting ground for Vijay but you have to be impressed with yesterday's round, it coming despite him seemingly having nothing to play for. But then, he tries like nobody else in golf and you can be sure he'll be wanting every last drop out of today's round. His driving improved massively yesterday, his GIR stats are at number one for the whole field this week, and his putting has improved with each round this week. After the bogey free 68 yesterday another good round looks more of a probability than a possibility to me.

I think Singh tees off at 16:30 UK time so apologies for the timing of the play but the spread firms are so slow in pricing up it really pushes you if you want to put some proper research into their offerings.

Adding:

Sell J.J. Henry/Hank Kuehne 18H MB 0.5 pts at 0 with Sporting Index, IG Sport, Spreadex (MU -16, Profit 8 pts)
This volatile-looking match between the week's two longest drivers so far kicks off at 18:00 UK time so there's plenty of time for the faint-hearted to ponder the potential downside! Either of these players could shoot 80 today, but I think everything is looking in Kuehne's favour, including the fact they make him outsider. Henry's putting this week has been a revelation, he lies 28th for putting average this week, but he still trails Kuehne in that area and it has to be very doubtful that he'll continue that form today. He is regularly one of the worst putters on tour and his excellent third round only heightens the belief that he'll have a tough time today. Consistency is not a word J.J. is usually familiar with and he'll often throw a high score in the same tournament as a really low one. I make Kuehne by far the most gifted of the two (despite Henry playing above himself this week Kuehne is still recording better GIR stats as well as the putting) and in my eyes is by far the more likely to throw a good round in today.

Summary (Weekly Record - Profit 32.8 pts)

Price played poorly, Howell and Funk, to some extent, too, but the round-by-round bets went very well indeed.