PGA Championship

Tournament Trade 2 (Shaker):
Sell Stephen Ames FP at 17 with Sporting Index or Spreadex for 0.75 pts  MU 10.5, Profit 4.88 pts
Ames is currently tied-7th with three others on 5 under par, and the dilemma is do we have the Ames of mid-summer back? If we do we have a player who secured 7 top-10s in 8 events and his form in the first half of this championship is obviously encouraging. If he is playing his best again a profit would be nigh-on guaranteed, and the clincher for me is that of the 32 players up to four shots behind Ames, there are few I'd be expecting to kick on and get involved in the top ten; Roberts, Davis, Howell, Ogilvy, Sheehan, Tway, Waldorf, Faldo, Faxon, Gogel, Lewis, Pampling, Pettersson, Armour, Drummond, McGinley, Ogilvy, Quigley, Remesy, Sullivan, Tanaka are two-thirds of them and, while all occasionally capable of great golf, you wouldn't think them obvious contenders for a good weekend in a Major on a course that will surely play progressively more difficult. I'd like to think a poor weekend is unlikely for an in-form Ames, even an average one would still see him well inside the top fifteen from here, and a good weekend would be top-5.
 

Tournament Trade 1 (Shaker):
Buy Justin Leonard FP at 18 with Sporting Index or Cantor Sport for 0.75 pts  MU 2, Loss 12 pts
I think the PGA will toughen things up considerably from today onwards, and the late starters today could be the ones to suffer most, especially if the wind gets up later on. Clarke was a possibility to take on but I just fancy opposing Leonard more. He has been quite badly out of form all season and hasn't beaten tied-14th in his last 14 events despite missing only 4 cuts. I'll be surprised if he can suddenly step up on that in this field with, in all probablility, three very tough day's golf coming up.


Tournament Trades (Andy) (-19 pts)

Summary:
Shocker on day 4 with Haas and Waldorf shooting big scores and a loss overall after being in a good position at the start of the previous 3 days. First losing week for a while but that doesn't make it any easier to accept after where we were at the cut.

Specials

Sell Lowest Individual Round at 67.7 with Sporting Index for 2 pts. MU 65, Profit 5.4 pts

The stories coming out about this course are frightening but even if it turns out to be Carnoustie for the new millenium 67.7 is a little bit high considering around 440 players will take a stab at shooting 5 under par. The course architect reckons that as "these guys are good" some should score quite low. Certainly the weather is expected to be kind to those selling the trade.

72 Hole Match Bets (0.5 pt stake)

Buy Jay Haas over Lee Westwood at 0.75 using "My Matchmakers" at Sporting Index. MU 12, Profit 5.62 pts

One of our favourite players to support against one of our favourite to oppose and on home ground off a very small handicap. This is easily the best 72H quote posted so far.

Finishing Positions (0.5 pt stakes)

(adding) Sell Duffy Waldorf at 41 with Spreadex MU 50, Profit -4.5 pts

Buy Phil Mickelson at 17 with Sporting Index. MU 7, Profit -5 pts

Sell Jeff Sluman at 41 MU 50, Profit -4.5 pts
Sell Scott Verplank at 33 MU 50, Profit -8.5 pts
Sell Jay Haas at 35 MU 40.5, Profit -2.75 pts
Sell Kirk Triplett at 40.5 MU 50, Profit -4.75 pts
Reasons:-

Waldorf: A mix of reasons here. Main reason is of course his current form of 11th and 4th last two events. However another reason which applies to all the sells is the fact that the event has its usual 25 PGA local professionals who shouldn't in theory trouble the 50 places up for grabs in the FP scoring. With that in mind, Waldorf is in a theoretical field of just over 100 possibles

Mickelson: An unbelievable record in Majors this year but 17 is quite low as I have his figure around 20-21. Worth a buy considering the upside is greater than the down.

Sluman: 4 Top 25's in his last 5 events means that current form cannot be questioned. With a downside of 4.5 pts it is a bet worth taking on.

Verplank: Last years' PGA was the last time Verplank missed a cut. He is, along with Haas, the most consistent performer for FP sellers. 11th place is his worst performance since the start of July with 4 events played.

Haas: Six top 12's in the last eight events is just further proof of the above comment, albeit two were on the Champions Tour. His worst performance of the year when making the weekend is 43rd so if he gets through Friday night the stats are in his favour. All in all, 35 is quite high for such a regular Top 10 placed player.

Triplett: More based on price, a risk of just under 5 pts being worth it for a player, who is in ok form. 4 top 20's in 8 events proof of that.