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Tipster:
Shaker
The Players Championship
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Outright plays:
Back Jonathan Kaye to win 1 pt @ 130 at
Betfair
A short time ago this very promising player was a top
priced 40/1 and 50/1 in the two events succeeding his
win at the FBR Open. He finished last year with three
top tens from five events and is simply a major player
these days. He was very impressive securing the
aforementioned win against Mickelson & DiMarco and that
followed a 4th place the week before, clinched with a
65-64 weekend. The bookmakers do have short memories
though, thankfully, and their almost-universal shoving
of him to three figures here have prompted the layers at
Betfair to go to this lovely price. I'd be a backer at
120 but it seems 130 is available and maybe it will go
even higher, who knows? He has performed very well in
the biggest events before and I see no reason why he
can't do so here as well. It should be a tough week
tee-to-green with the course being hard and fast, and
these 2004 statistics suggest he's well overpriced: 9th
for GIR & 3rd for Total Driving lead to him being 1st on
tour for Ball Striking, the combined stat of those two
which sorts out the players with the best long game. |
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Summary
1 pt loss ... His iron play was well off this week and never gave us
any hope.
Pre-4th round plays:
Back Adam Scott to win 6 pts @ down to 3.5 at
Betfair
For me, there are serious doubts about the chasing 10 (down to 4
shots behind) ... either they shot too good a round yesterday and will
find it desperately difficult to follow it up (Lickliter, Stankowski,
Parry), they are poor Sunday performers if the pressure is really turned
on (Kelly, Sutherland, Waldorf), or they are big names but not playing
at their complete best and have 3 or 4 shots to find on a top-class
player (Perry, Mickelson, Els, Singh). Perry has done the least wrong
out of that group, whilst Mickelson could conceivably continue his
truly-amazing recoveries from all corners of this course - but I can't
quite see either going the whole hog. The presence of so many top names
in the top ten is obviously having an effect on Scott's price but he has
undoubtedly been the best player so far this week and is already
developing a reputation as a player who turns third-round leads into
tournament victories. The 3.5 could look very big very quickly and I'll
be shocked if he falters badly today with his game in such superb shape.
It is entirely possible that Scott could find himself with a bigger
lead than he currently has if he plays the front nine well, in which
case (like Appleby last week) he'll be at very short odds. Because the
back nine today is going to be extremely tough it would be foolish not
to cash in should this happen, however strongly one would feel about
having the eventual winner. So, we'll stick some lays up for when the
action starts.
Lay Adam Scott 6 pts @ 1.33 and 10 pts @ 1.2 at
Betfair
Truly great performance by Scott despite the late lapse.
Profit = 10 pts.
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