Tipster: Stanley

The Players Championship

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ Bet365

For all that Clarke has improved his form this year, he has yet to finish ahead of Appleby in any of their five common strokeplay events this year. And for all his improved form, he has only made two of six cuts this year which is not very impressive. So long as there is not too much reaction to losing the lead last week, Appleby looks set for another good week.

(also available at Victor Chandler)

Scott Verplank to beat Darren Clarke -111 @ SIA

This price will definitely not last! Verplank is a best-price of -137 elsewhere and justifiably so. Clarke really needs Verplank's consistency if he is to become a true world-class player.

(also available at Aces, Five Dimes, Pinnacle, Sirbet and Olympic)

Tom Lehman to beat Aaron Baddeley -140 @ Five Dimes

Lehman is certainly another very consistent player. His last missed cut was back at the PGA Championship in August! He has also missed just one cut in the last nine years here at Sawgrass (six top-15 finishes), whereas Baddeley has yet to play this course and so should struggle to make the cut.

Justin Leonard to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ Five Dimes and Pinnacle

Leonard is another who can be supported in match bets because of his consistency. He has made every cut this year, finishing in the top-30 in all but one event and with the emphasis more on straight driving this week, the 1998 champion should be favoured. Bjorn's driving does let him down and his form has certainly dropped over the past month.

(also available at Aces, Olympic and Sirbet)

Padraig Harrington to beat Colin Montgomerie -114 @ Centrebet

For all that Monty won against a very weak field in Asia last week, one statistic is very decisive in this matchup. Over the last three years, Harrington leads Montgomerie 12-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour. Little more needs to be said!

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Colin Montgomerie -154 @ NordicBet
Also siding with Maruyama against Monty. With every cut made in his eight starts this year, plus three top-6 finishes, this has been a pretty good start to 2004 for Maruyama. He could certainly repeat his top-15 finish of 2002, but should need much less to beat a tired Monty who has missed three of his last four cuts in Florida.

Chris Riley to beat John Daly -111 @ BetandWin [3pts]

Not quite the boom or bust of previous years, but Daly showed in how he played the last hole at Bay Hill with a place in the Masters on the line that he still doesn't know how to play cautiously. That just too much of a handicap at Sawgrass and can explain why he shot 80 in the final round last year when in a good position after 54 holes. On this tough course that requires a great deal of patience, I'll side with Riley every time.

Adding (1.5pts):

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Thomas Bjorn -130 @ WSEX

Simple extension of the previous plays backing Maruyama and opposing Bjorn. Aside from Maruyama's impressive start to the year, there is also support from the h2h stats: he leads Bjorn 9-2-1 in PGA Tour events over the past three years.

Chris DiMarco to beat Tom Lehman -125 @ WSEX
Backed Lehman against Baddeley, but DiMarco is a completely different class of player and particularly in Florida. DiMarco has yet to finish behind Lehman this year and can boast a 2nd place finish in the FBR Open. He will do far more than just make the cut and so is a very different opponent to Baddeley.

Final update: 2-7-0; -11.66pts

Appleby/Clarke LOST by 4

Verplank/Clarke TIED (Lost)

Lehman/Baddeley WON by 6

Leonard/Bjorn WON by 3

Harrington/Montgomerie WON by 12

Maruyama/Montgomerie LOST by 1

Riley/Daly LOST by 12
Maruyama/Bjorn LOST by 4

DiMarco/Lehman LOST by 2

Started the final day wit the matchups standing 6-3-0 and showing a healthy profit. Not a very enjoyable last round.

Tipster: Shaker

The Players Championship

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Jerry Kelly to beat Chris Riley -120 @ WWTS
Justin Leonard to beat Chris Riley -110 @ Sportingbet/Sporting Odds
Opposing Riley this week due to his lack of success here in the past and, somewhat hand-in-hand, the expectancy that the course isn't good for him. I think to be successful here you need to hit greens in regulation and he doesn't do that; he is currently 135th on tour in that category. His worst performance this year came on the hardest course to hit greens he's encountered and that may be no coincidence. I expect both Kelly and Leonard to do OK this week; they are decent tough-course players with pretty fair current form and course form.

Nick Price to beat Jay Haas +100 @ Sirbet [3pts]
Haas' 2nd here last year was the only time he's finished in front of Price here in 4 attempts and with conditions this year being very different I think he'll struggle to do so again. I certainly wouldn't have Haas favourite in this matchup as his course form prior to that is nowhere near the level of Price's. Even aside from that, Price's 3-year top-25 percentage figure is plenty superior enough to warrant support as outsider.

Adam Scott to beat Shigeki Maruyama +100 @ Bet365 [3pts]
Expecting a good run from Scott this week as his general level of form is now approaching the top class he's always looked capable of. That's not to say Maruyama's current form isn't good, because it is - very - but there were arguably signs over last weekend that his current performances would start to slide and with his past Sawgrass form being pretty poor overall I am firmly in Scott's camp at this price; he was 17th on only his 2nd appearance here last year.
 

Round 3 18H Matchups (3 pts):

Joe Durant to beat Brad Faxon +125 @ SkyBet
Just going, on this course, with the much better long game against the much better putter in a matchup which, in my opinion, shouldn't have this difference of odds. Tee-off 13:47 UK time.

Neal Lancaster to beat Stewart Cink +150 @ Sporting Odds & BlueSq
Cink doesn't have a good record here while Lancaster's long game is in fine shape this week, particularly his iron game; he is tied 1st for GIR so far this week. 16:11 UK time.
 

Round 4 18H Matchups (3 pts):

Shaun Micheel to beat Ian Poulter +110 @ Sporting Odds,Coral  & BlueSq
Can't see why he's priced as outsider. He's a good tee-to-green player and on this type of course I fancy him to outscore the far more erratic debutant.

Robert Allenby to beat Alex Cejka -125 @ BlueSq, Coral & Ladbrokes
Allenby enjoys a difficult course and has been hitting the ball very well this week. He is generally a far better player than Cejka, whose scores have got progressively worse this week.

Paul Stankowski to beat Kevin Sutherland +138 @ Paddy Power
Stamkowski has got better and better this week and is looking to continue the upturn in form his game showed last season. Sutherland has to be vulnerable having been in the spotlight for so long this week and I cannot see that he deserves to be this hot a favourite.
 

Final Update; 6-3: +7.83 pts

Kelly/Riley WON by 19
Leonard/Riley WON by 10
Price/Haas LOST by 8
Scott/Maruyama WON by loads.

Durant/Faxon WON by 1
Lancaster/Cink LOST by 6

Micheel/Poulter WON by 7
Allenby/Cejka WON by 1
Stankowski/Sutherland LOST by 3