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Tipster:
Stanley
The Players Championship
Outright plays (1.5pts):
Retief Goosen to win 40/1 e.w. @
Paddy Power
A large price for a player that fits the bill of the usual winner here -
a Major winner with very good greens in regulation stats. Presumably,
that is because of his very poor record at Sawgrass - one cut made in
five attempts - but Goosen is a far better player than this.
He had finished 1st and 3rd in his last two
Florida events before last week's Bay Hill
Invitational and does play better on Bermuda greens.
He is more than capable of winning in this
company, so these odds do look rather generous.
Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w. @
SkyBet,
BetInternet
and
Victor
Chandler
Rather doubtful that Verplank can win in this company, but the place
odds are nowhere near as attractive so sticking with the each-way play.
He was very impressive over the difficult
closing stretch on Sunday and the same steely nerves over the final few
holes at Sawgrass will gain him a great deal of strokes over the field.
Plus, having finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven strokeplay
events (and only 20th in the other), there is good reason to side with
Verplank again and hope he secures another profitable top-5 finish.
Robert Allenby to win 50/1 e.w. @
Paddy Power
and
Victor
Chandler
Like Goosen, Allenby missed the cut last week, but that is of little
concern with a player who is a proven winner on this Tour.
He as finished higher up the leaderboard in
each of his last four visits to Sawgrass and was a top-5 finisher last
year. At 50/1 that would represent a nice profit for just a place win.
And he is playing just as well. In the past three months, he has won
once and finished in the top-15 in five of seven strokeplay events. Just
can't see all three of these finishing outside the top-10, so should be
a good chance of a decent return from at least one of them this week.
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One outright play by
Shaker
(2 pts):
Charles Howell to be top US without Woods 66/1 e.w.
@
BetDirect
Compared to other firms pricing up a similar market this
week, these are excellent terms; he is 50/1 for top US
player wherever else it has been priced up, and this
includes Tiger Woods. Four places too, we may even
get a return for as low as a 12th place finish with so
many contenders these days being non-American. It cannot
be disputed that Howell has been desperately
disappointing so far this season but you cannot keep
players of this quality down for long and there have
been definite signs recently that he's coming back to
form. His scrambling has improved immensely the last two
weeks and the four rounds of 71 last week, in finishing
15th, was a good effort, definitely his best of 2004. He
played well tee-to-green at the Honda previous to that
as well, but couldn't sink a putt, and with the demands
being on making par and not making mistakes this week,
we could easily see a big run from him. His results last
year, and his own statements also, state undoubtedly
that he favours a very difficult course; it almost
certainly is going to be so this week, hard and fast are
the reports I've read so far with no indication of any
changes in store for the remainder of the week.
Summary 0-1
Loss of 2 points ... Howell never gave us any hope
and looks one to avoid for now.
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Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts
Goosen mc
Verplank 26th
Allenby 33rd
Verplank got as high as 7th after the 1st round, but it
was downhill from then onwards with these selections.
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