Tipster: Andy

The Players Championship

Tournament Trades

Sell Tiger Woods over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 3.5 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (M/U -1, Profit 2.25 pts.)

As low as 1.5 - 3 elsewhere, this quote is too high. The reasoning is purely on the price as there are so many negatives currently for both players that it seems difficult to assess them. However difficult that is though, selling at a 3.5 start is value.

Sell Scott Verplank FP at 30 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (M/U 29, Profit 1 pt.)

Playing up last weeks FP win on Verplank who is one of the most consistent players on tour when sold on FP. An aggregate sell of Verplanks' FP all season would produce a very healthy profit with finishes of 20/7/2/3 so far. Yes, this is the best field of the year, but 30 is too high for a player in excellent form.

Sell Kirk Triplett FP at 36 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit -7 pts)

Sell Chris Di'Marco FP at 34 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit -8 pts)

Sell Nick Price FP at 38 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (M/U 47, Profit -4.5 pts.)

Sell Jay Haas FP at 38 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (M/U 7, Profit 15.5 pts.)

Sell Briny Baird FP at 37 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 37.)

Sell Fred Couples FP at 38.5 (spread free) with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit -5.75 pts)

Sell Bob Estes FP at 42 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit -4 pts)

FP Sells Reasons.

The reasoning is basically similar in all, in that the prices are too high. However, a more detailed list to
the choices are as follows.

Couples was a double winner in his heyday years ago now, but you could argue that he has entered an indian summer in the last 12 months or so with vastly improved performances on tour. He was 10th last year which wasn't helped by a last round 74. His recent form is sounds with two top 30's in the last 2 weeks.  

Haas is even older than Couples, old enough to play Champions Tour golf. However, like Couples, he is
playing way above himself over the last year and a half or so. He was 2nd here last year which was a big improvement on a previous best 43rd. Current form is average but steady with 5 strokeplay events all of which resulted in finishes under 40th place.

Price had a great record here in his heyday too, and although the same statement about a late career improvement cannot be put up as a reason for Nick Price his Sawgrass record is too hard to ignore. 2003 was his worst year on tour and his MC at Sawgrass was an example of this. However previous form reads 9-10-17-3-3-8 which just cannot be ignored when you have a quote of 38 with a known downside of 12. A big plus though for the bet is his 11th at Doral suggesting some of the old form is back. Possibly this is the best bet of the FP sells we have suggested this week.

Baird is a fairways and greens player who should have a course to suit this week. Not being a regular on tour for long his Sawgrass record is harder to examine. 11th last year though suggests this course will suit and current form is ok with only one missed cut at the Hope and two top 10's.

DiMarco is a tough one to call. 21st last year was his best finish on the course and he does have poor state form. His current form is good, three top 30's from 5 strokeplay event. An 11th at Doral lays a question mark to his Florida form being suspect and at 34 the price seems just a bit too high.

Triplett is, like Verplank, an FP dream but a nightmare outright play. 8th last year was a best performance since 1997 when in the years in between then and now Kirk did very little at Sawgrass. Current form is sound though and he has posted 4 top 20's in six events this season so far.

Finally, Bob Estes. A player whose game has left him completely this season with 3 missed cuts and a best placed 27th at Scottsdale. So why advise him. Well, basically 42 is too high. I would never recommend an "unlimited" FP sell but with a ceiling of 50, 42 is value. Sawgrass form is nothing startling either with a 31st place last year his best result. I can only suggest this is a bet where come Monday we could rue the chance to sell Estes in the 40's for the first time outside majors if he were to perform to his known ability

Round One Trades

Sell Heath Slocum over Kevin Sutherland 18H MB at 2 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U -31, Profit 24.75 pts)

There is nothing really in the current form to suggest Sutherland as a viable bet. He hasn't really done much this year whereas Slocum has won an event, albeit the quality reduced event that Baddeley was 2nd in. Slocum also has 2 other top 20's to his name whilst Sutherland has only one. So at face value you could argue the IG price is correct. But i would argue that Slocum's 75/76 last year on this course when it was playing easier than in previous years suggests he will struggle badly (Sutherland was 48th). We are trading her two players probably both well odds on to miss the cut but as long as Sutherland prevails in the 2 ball it doesn't matter what happens over the 4 (or 2 !!!) days.

Buy Scott Verplank over Peter Jacobsen 18H MB at 10 with Spreadex  for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 9 pts)

Verplank is in a rich vein of form and positives for him have been posted above. To support him though in an 18 hole bet at 10 means that the confidence in him must be matched with the confidence in the negatives of the opponent. Jacobsen has recent finishes of mc and wd on this tour . In between he posted a 3rd on the Champions Tour in an event he was tipped up as having a very good chance of landing at the first attempt on the tour. 10 is a bit low and although i wouldn't be backing at much higher i feel that a fair price on these two should be 11-14.

Buy Padraig Harrington over Aaron Baddeley 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 28, Profit 18 pts)

I am beginning to feel i dislike Baddeley as i always seem to be opposing him. But i do feel, win or lose, that the firms are pricing up Baddeley on reputation rather than cold hard facts. His 2004 record is (in chronological order) - 15/mc/mc/40/32/2/21/56. The 2nd was when the worlds best were at La Costa for the Matchplay. These are not figures for a player who is in the elite of golf but more-so a journeyman however harsh that may be. Time will tell if he becomes more but as yet his winning record in golf amounts to three wins in Australia and his best majors finish is 57th. Harrington is just outside the worlds top 10 and even allowing for the fact that he hasn't kicked into gear yet after the recent addition to his family he should be higher than 4 to buy in a straight match with his opponent.

Round Two Trades

Buy Tiger Woods over John Huston 18H MB at 9 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit 5.25pts)

It must be hard for a spread firm to price up Woods through all the hype that surrounds him. At the top of his game they must realise everyone will want to buy and have to find a price that is not only poor for those buyers but will still attract a fair split of sellers and buyers. However, they have a new problem. We are now in the early days of a mad stampede of people doing the opposite. Now the spread firms have to get a price that will be poor for those sellers but attract an equal amount of buyers too. We are backing, as in all spread bets, the probability chances when sufficiently different to the quote being offered.

Buy Scott Verplank over Peter Jacobsen 18H MB at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit -19.5 pts)

Also available at IG and Spreadex, this bet was a winner yesterday and with a chance to trade at the same price we will do so. Verplank is showing a very good steady run of form just now so it would seem silly not to go in again.

Buy Nick Price over Shaun Micheel 18H MB at 0.75 ch with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 31, Profit 22.68 pts)

Another trade available at all other firms. Available at 1-4 yesterday, Price was well behind Micheel and now has to shoot a low score to see the weekend. Still, with a bet a levels against a player he has a long term better scoring record both generally and on this course he is a fairly confident pick

Round Three Trades

Buy Chad Campbell over Spike McRoy 18H MB at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 9 pts.)

Campbell flirted with the cut yesterday but a good 2nd round has seen him in with 2 shots to spare. McRoy has shot 74-71 to get in also by 1. Campbell is a far superior player to McRoy and is probably worthy of a higher quote.

Buy Davis Love over Greg Norman 18H MB at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U 31, Profit 15.75 pts)

Love is 5 under par for his last 28 holes after starting the first 8 in 6 over. Having been totally out of it he has managed to claw his way back in. Norman is in with rounds of 72 and 73 so Love is on the up and is a fair price against the ageing Australian.

Buy Scott Verplank over Len Mattiace 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 4.5 pts )

Our only 18H blemish so far this week was yesterdays Verplank 2 ball but at 7 he is a fairly confident pick to overcome Mattiace who got in yesterday with an excellent 69. 7 is too low

Sell Ian Poulter over Joey Sindelar 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit -9.75 pts)

Priced possibly on the assumption that not many people over here know the veteran Sindelar too well so if this 18H market is likely to be traded much it would all be on Poulter. Therefore it is good management to price it lop-sided towards Poulter. They should be level. Sell at 3.

Round Four Trades

Sell Ian Poulter over Shaun Micheel 18H MB at 0 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -31, Profit 23.25 pts.)

Similar to yesterday, Poulter is over-priced against Micheel. Micheel doesn't sometimes get the credit for the major win last year and is a far better player than some think. On home ground he should be a clear favourite over Poulter.

Summary. Overall Profit = 92.43 pts

Shocking results in the FP bets with only Haas making us any worthwhile money. This was covered though by our best week on 18s yet this season, which helped achieve over 113 pts profit over the two tours

 

Tipster: Shaker

The Players Championship

Tournament Trade

Sell Charles Howell FP at 38 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (MU 50, Loss 9 pts)
Reasons for support are mainly stated on the outrights page and I foresee a very steady week from Howell with this price being probably two points higher than I was willing to sell at.


Round 1 Trades

Buy Scott Verplank/Steve Flesch at 4 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts (MU 34, Profit 15 pts)
I hate jumping on bandwagons (Verplank's current form) but even forgetting this I feel he should possibly be a heavier favourite than this. So with that form being very hard to ignore this price is more than good enough for me. Flesch's decent early-season form seems to be tailing off and he has very little course form to recommend him.

Buy Chad Campbell/Loren Roberts at 8 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (MU -16, Loss 12 pts)
The only possible negative for Campbell that I can see is a possible reaction to last week's ultra-impressive win. But I think he is a real talent and will take it all in his stride this week. Roberts isn't in bad form but has no form whatsoever here the last six years and his severe lack of length will give him headaches when trying to approach these firm greens.

Adding
Sell Stuart Appleby/Nick Price at 3 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts (MU 22, Loss 9.5 pts)
This play was on the verge of making it in even before I read how Appleby is having major problems with his back. Despite seemingly stepping up to a new level the past six months, he's still not entirely reliable in my book (followed his Mercedes win with a MC) and the collapse on Sunday may have left him mentally ill-prepared for this test today. Throw in the real possibility that he's telling it exactly as it is regarding his back (and not just trying to cover up for that Sunday shocker) and he has to be opposed as this strong a favourite against Price, who had five consecutive top-tens here before last year's MC in vastly different conditions to what they are today, and is coming off an 11th place at Doral. IG and Spreadex are going an acceptable 2-5 if Cantor's price shifts shortly after opening.


Post-round 1 Tournament Trade

Buy Padraig Harrington/Darren Clarke 72H MB at 3.8 with Sporting Index or Spreadex for 2 pts (MU 10, Profit 12.4 pts)
Harrington is very upbeat about his game after yesterday and appears to be continuing his excellent record at Sawgrass. Clarke was steady in all areas yesterday but, having a late tee time today, he'll probably have the worst of conditions and any score is possible for him. That brings in the possibility of a MC (only 2 shots clear of a big group that encompasses 70th spot) and a double-score makeup. The much more consistent Harrington's morning round today is expected to see him consolidate his position near the top of the leaderboard. Bet needs to be on by 13:40 UK time.


Round Two Trades

Buy Bob Tway/Jose-Maria Olazabal 18H MB at 6 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (MU 22, Profit 8 pts)
Tway is a steady old thing (T7th for GIR yesterday) and has sprinklings of good recent form and good course form, whereas Olazabal is still a light of former days and could shoot anything today on a course of this difficulty. His driving accuracy and GIR figures yesterday were shocking and it's hard to see a turnaround today. Tee-off 12:40 UK.

Buy Jeff Maggert/Tim Petrovic 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index or Spreadex for 0.75 pts (MU -13, Loss 10.88 pts)
Petrovic's iron play was poor yesterday and only his scrambling and putting saved the day. With him, though, there are no guarantees that he'll reproduce that and he throws in plenty of poor rounds on far easier courses than this. Maggert, on the other hand, seems to need a tough course to contend these days and his long game was in good shape yesterday. He has a fine record here and should excel on what could be a tough afternoon. Tee-off 18:25 UK.

Adding:
Post-round 1 Tournament Trade

Buy Phil Mickelson NO MAX FP at 25 with Sporting Index or Spreadex for 1 pt (MU 4, Loss 21 pts)
I think the potential profit here is so much more than any potential loss. He really doesn't putt well on these Bermuda greens and when you throw into the equation the possibility his long game might suffer if he starts to attack in the reckless fashion of the 'old Mickelson', we could be quite hopeful of a hig makeup. He has a late tee-time today when conditions could be tough, and even if he does alright today, there's still the hope of a big number over the weekend. In his last four appearances here he has played 14 rounds and 6 of them have been 75-75-76-77-82-83 so we're not unrealistic in hoping for him to fall down the leaderboard. Tee-off 17:45 UK.


Round Two Trade

Sell Shigeki Maruyama/Craig Perks 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index or IG Sport for 0.5 pts (MU 28, Loss 11 pts)
Still got the gut feeling that Maruyama is going to come tumbling back to earth soon and I fancy taking him on in this speculative bet. Perks is again showing his love of Sawgrass and I can see another steady round today. His long game really was excellent yesterday in making just the one bogey. Maruyama made lots of birdies yesterday but that could be different today as players invariably find it difficult to keep the putter red-hot for two consecutive days. Tee-off 17:25 UK.

Half-time summary:
Most infuriating was Nick Price, who was awful in round 1 and therefore unbackable after that, but won by seven in round two, and Perks, where it was agony to call the hot favourite Maruyama more or less correct and yet see his over-par score still cost us plenty.


Round three trades

Buy K.J.Choi/Scott McCarron 18H MB @ 3 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (MU 0, Loss 1.5 pts)
McCarron doesn't play well here and I fancy Choi to bounce back from his bad round yesterday. He has flopped before after a good round so in hindsight yesterday's poor round wasn't such a surprise but I think he's a much better player overall than these odds suggest. Tee-off 12:53 UK time.

Buy Colin Montgomerie/Pat Bates 18H MB @ 5 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts (MU 0, Loss 2.5 pts)
Monty has been playing well recently and now he's hopefully fully over his exertions last week I fancy a decent round from him. Bates is a really poor player in comparison and hasn't had a top 30 in about 9 months. 13:02 UK.

Sell Mark Calcavecchia/Todd Hamilton 18H MB @ 2 with SportsSpread for 0.25 pts (MU 22, Loss = 5 pts)
I priced this match each-of-two based on recent form and will oppose the more volatile Calc as he is favourite. Hamilton's long game is in fine shape this week and he obviously likes these Bermuda greens. 15:44 UK.
(Above three matches: our supported players hit 4 balls between them into the water on the 18th! The first two dropped from 2 shots ahead with 1 to play -a possible 16 pt MU each- to ties and two zero MUs.)

Sell Thomas Bjorn/Tom Pernice 18H MB @ 3 with SportsSpread for 0.25 pts (MU -19, Profit 5.5 pts)
Again opposing a volatile player as he's a heavy favourite against a player with decent recent form; Pernice has 3 top 15s in his last 5 events. 16:56 UK.

Sell Sergio Garcia/Scott Hoch 18H MB @ 3 with SportsSpread for 0.25 pts (MU 25, Loss 5.5 pts)
Hoch has a wonderful record here and is hitting the ball very well this week whereas Garcia is still struggling to live up to his reputation; he really does shoot some strange scores and I'll hope for another letdown from him today at this price. 17:14 UK.

Sell Vijay Singh/Padraig Harrington 18H MB @ 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts (MU 13, Loss 2.25 pts)
Just don't believe the price should be this on this course. OK, so it is Singh's home course but he's struggled more often that not and Harrington clearly enjoys it here. Not difficult to envisage Singh struggling with the putter today and will take the renowned grinder to score adequately again. 18:17 UK.

Sell Ernie Els/Adam Scott 18H MB @ 4 with SportsSpread & Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts (MU -19, Profit 17.25 pts)
Still not convinced by Ernie's form and really fancy Scott to bounce back, score-wise, after his good battling effort yesterday. He'll have good memories of playing with Els from when nearly achieving the impossible on that Sunday at the Heineken in Australia recently. 18:26 UK.

Buy Jerry Kelly/Kevin Sutherland 18H MB @ 6 with Sporting Index & Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts (MU -13, Loss 4.75 pts)
Probably the battle of the bottlers today; neither convince when they're near the lead but I feel Kelly will last far longer than Sutherland; he is the better player overall, has superior recent form, and also by far the best course form. 18:35 UK.


Round Four Trades

Buy Joe Durant/J.P.Hayes 18H MB @ 5 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts (MU -25, Loss 15 pts)
Durant is the better player, has the better long game this week, and has by far the better results this season. Also, Durant is a dependable Sunday player; he ranks 27th on tour for 4th round scoring average (and was 11th last year) whereas Hayes is 160th this year and was 85th last. Tee-off 15:43 UK time.

Buy Stephen Ames/Rod Pampling 18H MB @ 3 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts (MU 31, Profit 14 pts)
Ames has the superior long game and has had good finishes here the last two years, nearly winning it in 2002. Pampling's long game is far from the best and hasn't beaten 71 in 5 career rounds here, he could have a tough day today. 16:19 UK.

Sell Justin Leonard/Peter Jacobsen 18H MB @ 5 with Sporting Index, SportsSpread & Spreadex for 0.5 pts (MU 40, Loss 17.5 pts)
Jacobsen is still a decent player and his long game has been far superior to Leonard's this week. Leonard is clearly the better putter but still disappoints me a lot and if he continues to hit the ball relatively inaccurately he could get into far more trouble than Jacobsen today. 16:28 UK.

Round One Trades: 1-2; -6.5 pts
Round Two Trades: 1-2; -13.88 pts
Round Three Trades: 2-6; +1.25 pts
Round Four Trades: 1-2; -18.5 pts
Tournament Trades: 1-2 : -17.6 pts

Overall 6-14, Loss 55.23 pts