**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying short odds. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you wish to take these plays as recommendations, please do so but be aware that I can only manage the bets that I have actually struck and cannot give updates for bets you may have had (or not had) which are different to what is put up here.** 

Fed Ex St. Jude Classic @ Betfair

If (when?) Toms wins the account will lose 15.5 pts and stand at £613.35 after 8 weeks (Minus 19.33 pts).

Page Update #4 (after round two):
(Winner market)
Back John Daly 1.25 pts @ 19
Back Tim Herron 1 pts @ 22
Back Ben Crane 1 pt @ 26
I'm feeling like it's a long slow agony watching Toms relentlessly improving his score. His stats are fabulous, he's seems right back to near his best after his injury, and he loves the course. But I cannot go ploughing in at odds on with two rounds to go after seeing how he has struggled this season and there can be no guarantees that he'll keep this level of performance going for another two rounds in what is his fifth consecutive tournament.
Doing a triple back here of players that could easily have been fancied (and were by many) at the start of the week but were shrewdly (??) discarded come the final choosing of the team by yours truly. If Toms does struggle to keep it going, these three have it in them to go low and low again on the weekend. Taylor may surprise us all and, although it's hard to recommend a back of him at this stage, I shall not lay him and keep him as just a small loser for the book instead of making him a big negative like Toms.
The pre-tournament laying of a number of players each week really hasn't gone well since starting this 'experiment' and I shall be considering whether to just back players pre-tournament and lay only in-running at single-figure odds in the future.


Page Update #3 (after round one):
(Winner market)
Lay Paul Stankowski 0.75 pts @ 20
Goodbye to Azinger and Parry already, so much for liking the course!
Very hopeful of a big week from Lehman now, though, as his iron play looks superb and I feel that could be of paramount importance with the field hitting on average only around 50% of the greens .. a figure that is incredibly low. Laying Stankowski as he is prone to anything happening after a good round.

Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Back Craig Parry 2 pts @ 46
Back Tom Lehman 0.75 pts @ 65
Lay Stewart Cink 0.75 pts @ 17
Lay David Toms 0.5 pts @ 24
Lay Kirk Triplett 0.5 pts @ 24
Lay Charles Howell 0.5 pts @ 26
Lay Geoff Ogilvy 0.25 pts @ 44
Lay Bob Estes 0.25 pts @ 50
All six players I want to lay have come down in price since yesterday despite Betfair not taking the non-runners out of the market. I phoned them last night to say that 3 of their top 17 weren't playing but it's like waiting for Christmas.
Cink, Triplett & Howell are very rare winners for players of these odds, Toms & Estes are in desperate form and only their reputation and course wins lead them to being so low, and Ogilvy has probably had his run for now and doesn't win anyway. Taking on these six players to lose roughly equal amounts is equivalent to laying a combined 7/2.
Two more backs for me, both have been absent from the PGA Tour for a while but had been playing well this year and have excellent course form. Parry has had finishes of 3rd, 7th & 12th from his last four appearances here and, coupled with his win at Doral and 13th at the Players Championship already this season, he looks overpriced at over 40/1. He kept his eye in with a tied 3rd behind Mark Calcavecchia in Korea three weeks ago and should enjoy the firm fairways and likely windy conditions.
Lehman should enjoy them too, but is slightly more risky on his first tournament back from arthroscopic knee surgery. But then, it has been over two months since his last outing, and presumably he had it done soon after that, so he should be OK as many professional sportsmen are back playing their contact sports competitively after 6 or 7 weeks. He may even be benefitting from it already, who knows? I'll chance it as he is an average of 4 under par for each of his last 8 rounds here, tournaments in which he finished tied 3rd and tied 2nd. He's been playing better in recent times, as 9 top 25s in his last 16 outings would testify, and had he had a recent outing I think he'd have been half these odds. I know it's chancy but let's risk it!


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Paul Azinger 1.25 pts at 85
I definitely want to do some laying in this field but have to sit tight for the moment because three fairly prominent players in the Betfair market are not playing. Riley, Baird and Hart are the three and, as they are a collective 15/1 shot, the news could easily have an effect on other prices, causing them to contract slightly.
Just the one bet for now, Azinger, who has shown good form here in the past and is having a fair season. He has been 6th and 15th on his last two outings, the former giving him his third top ten of 2004, which is more than he managed in the previous two seasons combined. With those struggles he had in mind, I can happily ignore his performances here in those years and instead concentrate on his Southwind efforts before that; 7th, 6th & 20th in '98, '99 & 2000 paints a pleasing picture and gives a current form/course form profile that is very decent in this field. It all leads me to believe that anything over 70 is very good value.