Fed Ex St. Jude Classic (1.5pts unless stated):
Kirk Triplett to beat John Daly -123 @
Expekt
Big contrast between the consistent Triplett and the unpredictable Daly.
Despite Daly having in best season in almost a decade, have to side with
a player who has been grinding out top-15 finishes this season and in
previous years on this course. Daly has missed three of his last five
cuts on this course.
(also available at Bet365)
Fredrik Jacobson to beat Robert Damron -164 @
SIA
Short odds, but total mismatch. Damron did finish 2nd in the Byron
Nelson Championship, but it was his only top-20 finish of the year and
he has missed half of his 14 cuts this season. Just don't see him as a
credible opponent to a player who rightly tops many outright markets
this week.
Loren Roberts to beat Robert Damron -110 @
BetInternet
The Byron Nelson Championship was the only time this year that Damron
has finished higher than Roberts on a leaderboard (seven common events).
Can't see it happening again for a while and particularly not this week
as Southwind is Roberts' home course.
Loren Roberts to beat Joe Ogilvie -110 @
Bet365
[3pts]
Similar story here. Roberts also has a 6-1-0 h2h lead in this matchup in
2004, is playing on his home course and showed good form last week to
finish 12th in the Colonial. Ogilvie has had one good week which has
netted him a runners-up spot, but otherwise it has been fairly ordinary
and he does not have the course form that Damron has either.
Tom Lehman to beat Joe Ogilvie -114 @
Expekt
[3pts]
And again. Lehman has finished ahead of Ogilvie in all but one common
event this year, had been very steady until his last event - albeit the
Players Championship - and has great course form with top-3 finishes in
each of his last two visits. If fully fit and not too rusty, he should
have little difficulty in beating Ogilvie.
Adding (3pts):
Fredrik Jacobson to beat John Daly -120 @
Centrebet
Just two very different players playing at very different levels.
Jacobson is a justifiable favourite, while Daly appears to have peaked
already this season. He also has poor course form, which is not too
surprising on a par-71 course and on fairways featuring zoysia grass
(sturdier grass than Bermuda which does not favour his huge divot-taking
swing).
Final update: 4-2-0; +3.74pts
Triplett/Daly LOST by 2
Jacobson/Damron WON by 7
Roberts/Damron WON by 4
Roberts/Ogilvie WON by 1
Lehman/Ogilvie LOST by 6
Jacobson/Daly WON by 7
Nice profit on the matchups with Roberts just scraping
home one ahead of Ogilvie (the tie would have been graded as a loss).
|