Fed Ex St. Jude Classic

Summary from Andy: 27.69 pts Profit. Excellent week on the three tours which makes up for the losses last week.

Round Four trades from Andy (-4 Pts)

Sell Ted Purdy over Paul Stankowski at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -19, Profit 5.5 pts
Similar to yesterday, Purdy seems to be over-estimated, and Stankowski under-estimated. This has resulted in a match where the price is probably a good few points higher than it should be.

Sell Joe Ogilvie over Ben Crane at 1 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 19, Profit -4.5 pts
Ogilvie has been priced the last couple of weeks on what he is achieving this spring rather than what his long term stats have shown. This is another example today where the arguably better player is the outsider in R4 when they are paired together due to their similar score. So, the only stats to go on are longer term than just this week and that points to Crane.

Buy Rich Beem over Hirofumi Miyase at 5 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts MU -22, Profit -6.75 pts
Only one loser yesterday and it was the one we were concerned about due to Beem's previous day success. However, we lost not due to Beem disappointing but Miyase playing above himself again. At roughly the same price, it is worth risking that he can't do it for a 4th day.

Buy Dennis Paulson over Kris Cox at 6 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts MU 13, Profit 1.75 pts
Another based on price, and the fact that this is R4 and the pressure to obtain as much prize money as possible may affect Cox more who is far less involved at the business end of events than Paulson.

Round Three trades from Andy (+23 Pts)

Buy Rich Beem over Hirofumi Miyase at 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts. MU -13, Profit -2.25 pts
I don't like backing players who have shot so low as Beem did yesterday but realistically he should be priced at higher than 4 against his opponent tonight.

Sell Ted Purdy over Stephen Allen at 3 with Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts MU -16, Profit 4.75 pts

Sell John Daly over Paul Stankowski at 5 with  IG Sport for 0.25 pts. MU -13, Profit 4.5 pts
Basically playing two sells that are little higher than is probably fair to the underdogs. Both bets are worthy of playing given the start received.

Sell Pat Perez over Billy Andrade at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU -19, Profit 5.25 pts
I would pitch in Andrade as slightly the more reliable player so to get a two point start is good value

Buy Bob Estes over Joel Kribel at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU 19, Profit 3 pts

Buy Fred Funk over Rich Barcelo at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU 31, Profit 5.75 pts
Happy to get with the more well known players at fairly low buy prices considering the quality of opponent now that we are down to the serious end of the event.

Buy Fredrik Jacobsen over John Senden at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU 13, Profit 2.25 pts
No reason not to go in again at the same price on this match for the reasons given previously

Round Two trades from Andy (-2.06 pts)

Buy Fredrik Jacobsen over John Senden at 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 13, Profit 2.25 Pts
Playing up the main losing bet from yesterday. Jacobsen was short of match practice and in hindsight it may have been best to let him have a run, but the price was just too appealing. Today though, he has had a run and comes up against a player who struggled yesterday so all we require is Freddie to perform to his ability and Senden to continue his poor run. Simple.

Buy Joe Durant over Chris Smith at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -16 Profit -4.31 Pts
We successfully opposed Smith yesterday and we will try again today with Durant who has been quoted at a "choice" price as he shot 75 on day 1. Smith though didn't do much better and as Durant is arguably a better player so at the price it seems fair to support Durant to perform better today.

Round One trades from Andy (+10.75 pts)

Sell Joe Ogilvie over Brendan Pappas at 6 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -19 Profit 6.25 Pts
Ogilvie is being priced high on recent successes but to price him 6-9 suggests he is a top level player playing a "rag" which he most definitely isn't. 14th last week, Ogilvie had been showing signs of falling back into his "level" which is of a journeyman pro. This 14th has prompted a price fairly high against Pappas who IS a journeyman pro who a lot of shrewd judges think is better than that. Whether he is or isn't is under debate but he is not a 6-9 underdog in this match.

Buy Fredrik Jacobsen over John Senden at 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU -13 Profit -4.25 Pts
We have supported Freddie more than oppose him this year but i can't see why his outright price is so low this week. Therefore, it is with some surprise that we find a backable price in a MB where the firms have over-estimated Senden's chance. One top 10 in two years (last week) doesn't say a great deal for Senden, and Jacobsen seems far more reliable.

Buy Stewart Cink over Chris Smith at 7 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 28, Profit 5.25 Pts
High buy but a huge diff: in quality here. Cink won a few weeks ago, Smith has a 20th at the Bellsouth as his best return. Cink is actually the favourite outright whereas Smith is 125's in places.

Buy Tom Lehman over Rich Beem at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 19, Profit 3.5 pts.
This price is just too low, simple as that. It is the battle of the major winners but Lehman has posted a few more "other" wins than Beem. Beem has really struggled this year, 33rd this year his best placing, whereas Lehman was 12th a couple of weeks ago. PGA winner Beem is very unreliable these days so 5 is a low handicap

Tournament trades from Shaker (-1.38 pts)

Buy David Toms/Bob Estes 72H MB at 0.75 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts: MU 6, Profit 2.62 pts
Two past winners here at Southwind, but two players also in desperate form. Estes' course form is (ending with most recent) 45/1/30/3 while his 2004 finishes are 36/27/MC/MC/MC/MC/31/65/25/MC/74, Toms lines up with 15/53/4/1 and MC/5/25/MC/MC/MC/34/MC/MC/44 in comparison so there is not much difference all in all. But there are definite reasons why I want to take this matchup on. Toms had surgery last December and that is the original cause of his troubles and he could reasonably be expected to start contending again very soon, but with Estes, quite simply his game has gone AWOL; there is no sign of an end to Estes' problems and Toms has at least shown signs that the struggles are much more temporary; Toms was 9th for hitting greens in regulation (the main pointer to how a player's long game is shaping up) last week and made 15 birdies in the four rounds, Estes was 52nd for GIR and incredibly made just 4 birdies all week. He putted incredibly poorly, worst of those that made the cut, in fact, and these greens have very similar grass. All in all, Toms is the better player and is showing more promise, and I agree with the gulf between these two players that is suggested by their best fixed-odds prices - 20/1 Toms but 50/1 Estes. I have to take this on at 'choice'.

Sell Geoff Ogilvy/Craig Parry 72H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts MU 8, Profit -4 pts
Have laid Ogilvy and bet Parry so I can't resist this play at these odds! Since going out in the final group at the Wachovia, Ogilvy has shown signs that his very good run has come to an end. He flopped badly with a 5 over 75 that Sunday to drop to tied 10th, and with that being followed by a 63rd last week, the omens are not good, particularly here at Southwind where he has missed the cut both times he's appeared. Parry has been quiet on Tour but won at Doral on his first look at an American tournament this season so the break is no negative, and his course record is one to have on your side - 3rd, MC, 7th and 12th from his four outings here over the last 7 years.