Texas Open @ Betfair

Summary:
Loss = 8pts. Will I ever get close to a winner again?

Selection 1 Back:
Fredrik Jacobson 4 pts @ 28
Was a letdown last week but I blame myself for that as it was a course, in hindsight, that was most likely not for his game. The stats from last week show that accuracy, particularly with the irons, was the key but this week I do think it will be a putter's paradise. Despite the large greens here there are some excellent scores to be had, and that would be due to the players making a large number of putts, many from decent length; as I've said before, there are few better at that than Freddie when he has his eye in. In fact all three of my selections this week are very strong putters. Jacobson's PGA Tour record has a heavy bias towards courses where the demands are away from accuracy in the long game, and historical stats show that is the case here at LaCantera. It really should suit him well despite this being his first tournament in Texas and he already has shown good form on Bermuda-grass greens in his short career, 4 top-20s from only 6 attempts.

Selection 2 Back:
Ben Crane 2 pts @ 75
Crane's record clearly shows the same trends as Jacobson's in that his record is better where there are lesser demands on accuracy, and he also has the advantage of having played here a couple of times before, respectably last year as well in finishing 17th. Currently lives in Texas and very nearly won there in only his 14th tour start back in 2002 when runner-up at the Byron Nelson, a par-70 tournament with only two par fives just like here. Can go very low when course characteristics allow, as a 64-63 weekend to win last year's BellSouth Classic and a 26 under par total (5 rounds) for his best finish of this year testify. Form has picked up in the last couple of months and this test looks ideal for him.

Selection 3 Back:
José Maria Olazábal 2 pts @ 80
Olly's undoubted strength, his putting, had actually been as unreliable as the rest of his game during his struggles in recent seasons, but lately there have been definite signs that he has rediscovered that skill. He made 12th place last week in Germany, a very good quality event, despite hitting just 20 fairways out of 56, and that super effort comes not long after two similar finishes in better events than this on the PGA Tour. On the same lines as with the other two selections, the relative lack of pressure on the long game here should enable him to compete on more of a level footing, and I can't believe 79/1 is available; I took some 66/1 earlier in the week believing that was too big. Finished second in his only Texas start in the last 3 seasons and it would be a great message to send out that he wasn't finished in world golf were he to win in Ryder Cup week; I'm sure he has something similar on his mind.

Apologies for not being able to get these lays up until now, I understood this was a 15:30UK start.
Selection 1 Lays:
Lay 4 pts @ 7.8 (to lose 27.2 pts)
Lay 6 pts @ 3.7 (16.2 pts)
Lay 6 pts @ 2.36 (8.16 pts) Profit if Jacobson successful = 56.44 pts
Selection 2 Lays:
Lay 2 pts @ 19.5 (to lose 37 pts)
Lay 4 pts @ 8.4 (29.6 pts)
Lay 6 pts @ 4.7 (22.2 pts) Profit if Crane successful = 59.2 pts
Selection 3 Lays:
Lay 2 pts @ 21 (to lose 40 pts)
Lay 4 pts @ 9.0 (32 pts)
Lay 6 pts @ 5.0 (24 pts) Profit if Olazábal successful = 62 pts

The lays are at set prices, based on the original back price, and are left up for the duration of the tournament. Please note: they are to be put up as soon as possible after the market is placed in-running.