Tipster: Stanley

Chrysler Classic of Tucson

Matchup plays (1.5pts):
 

Tom Lehman to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ SkyBet
Dependable player against an erratic one. Lehman has made his last eleven cuts, including seven top-25 finishes, while Baddeley has missed two of five cuts this season with just one top-25 finish. Don't see Lehman winning this event, but having finished 6th on his last visit to this course in 1998, he should certainly keep up the run of top-25 finishes.
(also available at Bet365)

Kevin Sutherland to beat Russ Cochran -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds

Similar story here. Sutherland has made the cut in each of his five starts this year, including a top-10 finish in the last event in Arizona, the FBR Open. Cochran, on the other hand, has missed two of four starts and didn't play in the FBR Open. He has also finished behind Sutherland on the last three occasions that they have both played in this event, including 2001 when Sutherland finished 2nd to Garrett Willis.

Final update: 0-2-0; -3.53pts

Lehman/Baddeley LOST by 17
Sutherland/Cochran LOST by 6

The outright picks never got close to a top-5 finish and the matchup selections never got close to their opponents. A very disappointing event.

Tipster: Shaker

Chrysler Classic of Tucson

Matchup plays (1.5 pts):

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Mark Calcavecchia -110 @ Bet365
Two veterans of the game but one is putting up a spirited fight to still be competitive while the other seems to be firmly on the downgrade, both in terms of his game and also, sadly, hit fitness/health levels. Calc has withdrawn from 3 of the last 7 tournaments he's started, including from his most recent one with a back injury mid-round. In 15 starts in the last 8 months he has not made the top 20 at all, and the top 30 only once. Olazabal managed some good finishes on both tours towards the end of 2003 and the lack of rough here should see his notoriously erratic driving not being punished.

Paul Azinger to beat Mark Calcavecchia -118 @ Expekt

Well, if playing Olazabal against Calc, we can't possibly ignore Azinger, who has form figures of 10-9-33-44 this season and stands 1st for putting average on tour and 6th for birdie average. His driving accuracy stats are poor but, again, that can usually safely be overcome here.

Carlos Franco to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Ladbrokes
In a matchup of this quality, Franco is quite consistent. He doesn't challenge for titles anymore but misses less cuts than Smith and has shot over 70 in only 3 out of 16 rounds played this season. Compare that to Smith who hasn't broken 69 in 17 rounds this season and has yet to finish better than 68th. Smith's 6th and 13th places here the last two years are the only black spot for me in this matchup, though Franco's 10th last season gives us a pleasing comparison. He has a massive 14-4 lead over Smith in head-to-heads over the past year.

Hidemichi Tanaka to beat Frank Lickliter -111 @ Ladbrokes

Lickliter may be defending champion this week but consistency isn't in his dictionary. He has missed the cut in nearly 40% of his starts in the last 2 years or so, and comparing that to Tanaka's 5 missed cuts in the last 14 months, we have a very sound basis for a matchup bet. Throw in the facts that Tanaka has 18th and 25th place finishes here the last two years and is also securing much better finishes than Lickliter at present, and we have what I feel is a bet of excellent value.