U.S. Bank Championship

Tournament Trades (Andy) (Profit 14 pts)

At one point on Friday night both these players were tied 79th and finished and looking like both missing the cut. Then with the weather getting worse they both sneaked in on Tied 69th. Luckily neither made a great in-road into the event and only an eagle late in R4 got Stricker above 50th place.

Buy Steve Lowery FP at 30 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. MU 50
A couple of years ago you could make very good money by buying FP quotes on "over-rated" players. In time though, this advantage slowly dwindled away to the point that now the firms are pricing nearer the mid-point on a players expected "mean" figure and we find ourselves supporting FP bets when we feel a player will have a big week. This week though, possibly based on the fact that Lowery had a short spell at the top of the Leaderboard at Troon, the firms are over-estimating his chance this week. Looking over his results this year he seems to either have a big week or be out at the maximum M/U of 50 whether that be by missing the cut (5 times) or by falling away. He rarely posts finishes in the middle positions between 30th and 50th (none above 36). Based on the fact he has travelled a lot these last few days and that he fell away cheaply during the Open 30 seems a low buy.

Buy Steve Stricker FP at 33 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. MU 41
Another buy, this time on a player with a great record here but questionable form over the last couple of years. I am a great believer that course form does not have as much clout as some would think and that sometimes it is just a natural run of results that makes a player look good at any one venue. Of course that doesn't mean that players don't have their favourite venues but sometimes it just gets accepted that a player will do well one week because of past years. Stricker has an over 50% cuts missed record this year although did post his only Top 15 in his last event. His average FP this year is higher than the 33 you can buy at with Cantor.