U.S. Open

72-hole matchups - Final update: 9-6-1; -0.27pts

DiMarco/Cejka WON by 16
Haas/Faxon WON by 6
Singh/Garcia LOST by 2
Goosen/Scott WON by 14
Perry/Scott LOST by 1
Perry/Cink LOST by 2
Jacobson/Furyk LOST by 8
Ames/Franco WON (Franco wd)
Jacobson/Clark LOST by 9
Price/Faxon WON by 3
Price/Leonard WON by 3
Howell/Immelman WON by 4
Hart/Baddeley WON by 7
Faxon/Campbell TIED (Push)
Woods/Garcia WON by 1
Woods/Mickelson LOST by 12

Won 60% of the plays, but only broke even thanks to a very unexpected loss on the Jacobson/Furyk play. Half of the losses were by two shot or less, but at least this was a very profitable event for other reasons!

18 Hole P/L -2.72 Pts. What a week for trying to work out 18 Holers'. Cox won today shooting a 79 being an example. 18 Hole odds markets are somewhat easier to work out when the scores usually run from the mid 60's to the mid 70's. This week the range has been vastly greater.

Round Four Trades

Karl Cox over Joachim Haeggman @ 2.37 BlueSq WON +1.37pt
I see this as a toss of a coin match so 2.37 is value.

Jim Furyk over Joe Ogilvie @ 2.0 Bet365 LOST -1pt
Is Furyk back? If so he is not an even money shot against a vastly inferior player.

Hadimichi Tanaka over Lee Westwood @ 2.2 Tote TIED -1pt
Tied yesterday, we will try again at the same price to get a win on the superior US tour player

Stephen Leaney over Lee Janzen @ 2.10 Tote LOST -1pt
Flip-flop favourites here and I would prefer to be with Leaney who should be slight odds on.

Zach Johnson over Trevor Immelman @ 2.0 SkyBet WON +1pt
Similar to Leaney, Johnson should be odds on here.

Round Three Trades

Adding:

Fred Funk over Jeff Maggert @ 2.37 Tote WON +1.37pt
Late addition as the Tote go out of line with everyone else and make Maggert a fairly heavy fav. Arguably, Funk should be a shade of odds on.

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Hadimichi Tanaka over Lee Westwood @ 2.2 Coral TIED -1pt
Tanaka is a steady US tour player who should maybe be slightly odds on against the erratic Westwood.

Peter Lonard over Dudley Hart @ 2.0 Ladbrokes LOST -1pt
Similar story here, Lonard should be odds on, at around 1.7

Phillip Price over Joachim Haeggman @ 2.2 Ladbrokes WON +1.2pt
A big price on the Welshman who has a better record on the US Tour than his opponent

Chris Riley over Craig Parry @ 2.0 BlueSq WON +1pt
Riley is another who should be odds on (higher price available on Betfair as at 1230)

Nick Price over Zach Johnson @ 2.0 Tote WON +1pt
I have been a little disappointed by Price this week as i thought he could contend. He should though be lower than 2.0

Chris DiMarco over Tim Clark @ 2.0 Paddy Power LOST -1pt
Big price on the superior player who is as low as 1.72 elsewhere

Jay Haas over Sergio Garcia at 2.75 Coral LOST -1pt
Leaving the best to last. This price is huge for a 2-ball.

 

Further 18-Hole plays (1pt)
Only Paddy Power have priced up these at the moment as others seem to be waiting on the end of R1. Feel free to look for better but these prices are acceptable at the nominated book.

JL Lewis over Billy Mayfair and Angel Cabrera @ 4.5 Paddy Power LOST -1pt
Lewis is +3 and although Cabrera has played well in his first 12 holes Lewis shouldn't be as far out as 4.5 considering he was a full point less yesterday.

Scott Verplank over Justin Rose and Corey Pavin @ 2.62 Paddy Power HALVED +0.31pt
Verplank is just a far better player than these two no matter what Pavin has done so far.

Fred Couples over Miguel Angel Jimenez and Craig Parry @ 2.37 Paddy Power LOST -1pt
Couples struggled R1 but this price is value.

Round 2 Matches (1pt stake)
Some plays from R1 that we still feel are value even although they lost in R1 and a couple of big-name players who are value to fight their way back into this event.

Chris Riley over Jeff Maggert and Brian Davis 2.75 @ BlueSq LOST -1pt

Eduardo Romero over Kris Cox and Daniel Chopra 2.75 @ Bet365 LOST -1pt

Briny Baird over Joakim Haeggman and Casey Wittenberg 2.75 @ BlueSq LOST -1pt

Davis Love over Lee Westwood and Peter Lonard 2.25 @ SkyBet LOST -1pt

Scott Hoch over Phillip Price and David Duval 2.5 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds WON +1.5pt

Kevin Sutherland over Tim Petrovic and Gabriel Hjertstedt 2.62 @ Bet365 WON +1.62pt

Ernie Els over Chris Di'Marco and Robert Allenby 2.0 @ BlueSq WON 1pt

Brad Faxon over Trevor Immelman and Thomas Bjorn 2.75 @ Bet365 LOST -1pt

Kenny Perry over Shaun Micheel and Nick Faldo 2.2 @ William Hill LOST -1pt

Further 72-hole plays (1.5pts):

Dudley Hart to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ WSEX
Always looking to oppose Baddeley. His best finish in the last three months (7 starts) is 50th, whereas Hart can count three top-4 finishes in that spell. Hart also has a much better U.S. Open, which is not surprising given Baddeley's wayward driving.

Brad Faxon to beat Michael Campbell -150 @ WSEX
Have opposed Faxon because of his poor U.S. Open record, but Campbell's prospects for this week are even worse. He has missed the last three cuts in the U.S. Open and on the PGA Tour, Faxon has a 13-1-0 h2h lead against him since the start of the 2003 season. This one should be decided by Friday night!

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -195 @ Five Dimes
For all that Tiger has been in a slump, he still leads Garcia 6-3-0 h2h this year and that means parity at these odds. Add in the fact that Tiger did look like he was nearing his best last week, that Garcia has never finished ahead of him in four U.S. Opens and that Garcia is coming off a playoff win and there should be an edge even over these odds.

Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -145 @ WSEX
Shorter odds, but more straightforward, particularly if the wind blows. Lefty is not a good wind player and has yet to even finish in the top-10 in the Open Championship on the links courses there. These two players are still nowhere near parity - Tiger on a bad day is many times better than Mickelson on a bad day - and on a links course, Tiger should win almost every time.

Further Round One plays (1 pt):

Jerry Kelly to beat Jonathan Kaye and Carlos Franco 2.6 @ Coral Void due to Franco WD
Kelly is clear favourite and rightly so at most firms, but Coral go out on a limb going very close to making all three players equal in price. That is wrong as Kelly should be favourite by some way.

Nick Price to beat Adam Scott and Bob Tway 2.75 @ Ladbrokes TIE +1.37pt
The 2nd and probably the last additional match up now that all firms have price up. The firms can't agree on this set whether Scott or Price should be favourite, but Ladbrokes are by far the shortest on Tway so offer a good price on old Nick.

Further 72-hole plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Carlos Franco -139 @ William Hill
Ames missed the cut last week, but having finished in the top-7 in his five previous events, it is probably a good thing that his run came to an end before a major. He did finished behind Franco, but it was only the second time in ten common events in 2004. Franco won the U.S. qualifier at Woodmont, but is far too erratic a driver to compete in the event itself.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -114 @ Centrebet
Jumped in last night at -137 so have no hesitation in jumping in again at even better odds and no ties lose!

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Tim Clark -139 @ William Hill
Opposing another player who finished top in his U.S. Open qualifier. Clark then finished in the top-10 in the Buick Classic in the same week so he should be tired heading into this event. Even if not, though, Jacobson is still the far superior player and could easily finish as Europe's top player.

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ SIA
As already stated, Faxon's best finish since he first played in the U.S. Open in 1981 has been 33rd; Price has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years. In terms of 2004, Faxon has finished ahead of Price only once in eight common events.

Nick Price to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Pinnacle
Leonard has a much better record in the U.S. Open - he has finished in the top-20 in four of the last five years - but he is not playing particularly well at the moment. He has secured just one top-20 finish since January and so it is not surprise that Price holds a 6-0-2 h2h lead over him in 2004.

Charles Howell to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Centrebet
Immelman has a poor record on the PGA Tour and missed the cut in his only start in this event. Howell, for his part, is on a run of eight events where he alternates between a top-15 finish and a missed cut - he is due a top-15 finish this week. He should not need it to extend his 9-2-0 h2h lifetime lead over Immelman on this Tour.

Further Round One plays (1 pt):

Eduardo Romero to beat Kristopher Cox and Daniel Chopra @ 2.62 Ladbrokes LOST -1pt
Just a price that's too big on a player with more experience, and better stats and results than his opponents. Romero has showed up well in a few events this season and should be lower than 2.62

Briny Baird to beat Casey Wittenberg and Joakim Haeggman @ 2.62 Blue SQ LOST -1pt
A lot of books have Haeggman favourite or at least joint with Baird which doesn't seem right. In football
talk it is a home game for Baird and although Wittenberg is also American he has not produced the stats
and results that Baird has so far. I would have Baird as low as even money in this 3 ball.

Fred Couples to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez and Craig Parry @ 2.37 Blue SQ LOST -1pt
Couples is in form with big finishes the last two weeks. He is up against a player who struggles badly
in the US and one who has done little since his win in March. 2.37 is high and is worthy of a trade.

Steve Flesch to beat Darren Clarke and Stuart Appleby @ 3.25 Blue SQ WON +2.25pt
One of the "marquee" pairings, Flesch is probably more likely to be correctly priced at Skybet who
are 2.50, 2.75 and 2.87 over the three players which seems a fair breakdown of their chances.

Chris Riley to beat Jeff Maggert and Brian Davis @ 2.8 William Hill LOST -1pt
Riley is priced way too high with Hills. They must be adopting the view that Maggert seems to raise his game in majors and have priced him in as favourite. As low as 2.37 favourite elsewhere, Riley must be backed at this price.

Kirk Triplett to beat Phil Mickelson and Paul Lawrie @ 3.75 William Hill LOST -1pt
Lawrie was so downbeat about his game last week that it would be hard to imagine him contending here. If we therefore consider this to be a match, then Triplett is priced way to high at 3.75. This isn't to say Lawrie can't find his game again but Triplett is high with Hills because they price Lawrie at 4.5 when others go 6.5.

Fredrik Jacobsen to beat Toshimitsu Izawa and Tim Herron @ 2.3 William Hill LOST -1pt
Jacobsen is as low as 2.0 with a number of bookies and his fair price I would say would be slightly odds on. Therefore getting the chance to back at 2.3 should be taken up.

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Chris DiMarco to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ BetandWin [3pts]
Just a huge gulf between these two players and that is reflected in DiMarco's 9-1-0 h2h lead over Cejka in 2004. Total mismatch.

Jay Haas to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Ladbrokes [3pts]
And again. Haas has a 7-1-1 h2h lead over Faxon in 2004. Faxon's highest finish in the U.S. Open since 1981 has been 33rd; Haas has beaten that mark on many occasions, including 4th around this course in 1995.

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ BetandWin
Not such a huge gulf between these players, but a marked one nonetheless. Singh delivered in the matchups last week as his form improved as expected and he should continue in the same vein this week. It is very hard to win an event the week before a major and contend, so this should be Garcia's 5th U.S. Open and the 4th time that he has finished behind  Singh.

Retief Goosen to beat Adam Scott -135 @ Pinnacle
Two missed cuts in two U.S. Opens tell a story for Scott. Last week he ranked 75th (of the 80 players that made the cut) in driving accuracy and 70th in greens in regulation. He will have to raise the standard of his game enormously if he is to make his first cut. Should be straightforward for the outright selection.

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -125 @ Paddy Power
By contrast, Perry has finished in the top-12 in his last three events, finished 3rd in this event last year and 8th around the links of Royal St. George's in the Open Championship last year. He has far more ability to control his game and could easily finish in the top-10 again this year.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -137 @ SkyBet
This has been a very good season for Cink, but he is still the player that Perry is. He trails him 3-7-0 h2h this year and his finished behind him in each of the last two U.S. Opens. Should provide stiffer opposition than Cink, but he is still not a top-10 player this week.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Jim Furyk -111 @ BetandWin [4.5pts]
They say 'beware the injured golfer', but surely not in this match. Furyk has only just announced that he will try to play this week as defending champion - he would play nine holes each practice round at Shinnecock Hills before deciding whether he is strong enough to play on Thursday. He played his first full 18 holes on Wednesday since the surgery in March to repair torn cartilage in his left wrist and is clearly not fit enough for a Tour event and especially not the U.S. Open. "I'm not fooling myself. I'm not fooling anybody else," Furyk said. "I haven't played tournament golf in six months. I'll be grinding it out." If he weren't defending champion, he would not be playing and he could easily not complete the first round. Jacobson has a real chance of winning this week. They don't come more straightforward that this.

Round One 18 Hole Betting (1 pt at all times).

NOTE: We will be advising plays at what we feel are value prices on the round by round betting for this weeks event and from now on. We feel that these prices are much higher than they should be and are therefore value to the backer. Reasoning for each bet will be brief as they are all essentially based on the price on offer. The bookmaker offering the standout price will be recommended but of course it is always best to check the Exchanges to see if a higher price is available. All plays advised though will be with Fixed Odds firms as there is no guarantee that Exchange prices will hold or that there is sufficient money available at the advertised prices. 

Cliff Kresge to beat Ian Poulter and Bob Estes 5.5 @ Paddy Power WON +4.5pt
Kresge seems high at 5.5 against a player not used to US majors and a player who has been badly out of form this year. He is by a good way the least talented of the trio but is not a 5.5 shot over 18 holes. He is as low as 3.75 elsewhere.

Todd Hamilton to beat Aaron Baddeley and Bill Haas 2.62 @ Blue SQ LOST -1pt
We have had some success opposing Baddeley on the spreads and will hopefully do so here where he is favourite over an amateur and a 2004 Tour winner. Only three firms have priced this up at the time of posting and the other two go 2.25 both pro's so 2.62 at Blue SQ is value and probably will be cut.