**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying long odds on. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you want to think of these as recommendations to bet or lay these players then please do so, but be aware that sometimes the price will shift and you'll have to decide whether the new odds are value or not. If the new odds are only one or two increments different to what are on here then I'm sure I'd usually suggest to still play** 


Wachovia Championship @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Profit =  5.71 pts (after commission)

Bank is now £1138.69 after 5 weeks (started at £1000).

Summary:
A fantastic end to the tournament, even the 80/1 Sunday morning pick Flesch looked like he'd maybe get there at one stage. Indeed it was one of the "steady old guns" I had looked to support, but unfortunately it was one who you couldn't have picked with 100 attempts. Still, ultimately got the lay of the final group right and came out of it with a profit, which looked extremely unlikely on more than one occasion this week.
Click below to see the summary of the account for this week.


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<--Click the image to see the state of play after Update #5.

Page Update #5 (after round three):
(Winner market)
Lay Arron Oberholser 2 pts @ 6.6
Lay Geoff Ogilvy 1.5 pts @ 6.4
Back Kirk Triplett 0.5 pt @ 15.5
Back Chad Campbell 0.75 pt @ 38
Back Steve Flesch 0.25 pt @ 80 -- ALL MATCHED
First off I should mention Stuart Appleby. It seems that while I never managed to lay him at 60, some may have gone ahead of me in the 'queue' and laid 65 pre-tournament. If that is the case I suggest that backing him back to make him a winner would be the best course of action. He can definitely go low to win and about 1.5 pts would be the stake at his current price of 11, this would make your book around 1.25 pts worse off than the book that didn't lay him - much better than watching him win.
The rest ... I don't like the two O's in the final group, Ogilvy and Oberholser. Ogilvy I'm just not convinced about when he's under pressure, whereas Oberholser probably isn't experienced enough on the main tour to do it quite yet, he sits in the bottom 10 on tour (178th out of 187) in final round scoring this season and has already shot 76 on Sunday when in a similar position at Pebble Beach in February. I'll chance some small bits on players that have gone low to win before, including making Campbell a winner after laying him at the start. He needs a hot putting round to do it, but who can forget the fantastic 66 to take the Bay Hill 6 weeks ago? Triplett and Flesch are undeniably weak in a tight finish, but both have won from way behind in recent times. Triplett won the Reno-Tahoe last year with a Sunday 63 and Flesch was brilliant when winning in New Orleans with a weekend score of 65-65. I realise that Woods or Singh will cost me dear but I don't think either will do it. Singh's stats are suffering this week and surely he can't do that final day charge again, whilst Woods' play yesterday was painful, he just didn't know where the ball was going. Absolutely gutted that Kaye double bogeyed the last, he would've been -7 with a par and in with a real chance.


Update (after round two):
Definitely in trouble here, with Woods and Singh combined being a 4/7 chance on Betfair. Have to hope that Woods doesn't stretch clear, simple as that.

Page Update #4 (after round one):
(Winner market)
Lay Phil Mickelson 3 pts @ 12
Plenty to talk about, but not much to actually do after the first day. First off Appleby .. I always thought that my lay at 60 would be taken, the price taken hovered between 60 & 70 in the time between Update #1 and tee-off and I always assumed it would go low enough for my lay to be obliged. Very grateful now that it never because he is the sort of player who once he starts well, he can go on and be a real force in the tournament. Looks like a bit of luck at the moment and I'll happily accept that! Next up, Mickelson .. am laying now at a bigger price than backing because he could well end up having the worst of the draw. Just like last year it looks extremely likely that the Thursday p.m. starters have had the best of it and come Phil's tee-time he could easily be 8,9,10,11 shots off the lead. He didn't do a lot wrong but he did worst of the big three, I had hoped for better and I'll take the point loss. Another poor set of backs for me overall and I don't know why I stand for that Nick Price. Someone shoot me if I ever put him up again please. Do have Kaye in there fighting though and he has to have a chance. Last observation is how the two players, Love & Garcia, who were quite short in the betting who I didn't lay (because I felt they could easily play well and it would be handy having them onside) both performed poorly and are probably out of the running now. Very annoying to have them plus the backed Toms all shoot over par and you get the feeling because of this that you're on the back foot somewhat. However, there are a lot of good players in there who are winners in the book .... at the moment! Click the image below to see how my book looks after the Mickelson lay.





All bets from below matched except Appleby: Have not laid Appleby.

Page Update #3:
(Winner market)
Change Funk and Pettersson prices to 160 (they both keep coming down)


Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Change Kaye price to 100 (shrunk a bit!) and Funk to 180
Back Phil Mickelson 1.5 pts @ 9.4
Back Scott Hoch 0.75 pts @ 140
Back Carl Pettersson 0.5 pts @ 210
Lay Chad Campbell 0.75 pts @ 30
Lay Chris DiMarco 0.25 pts @ 60
The more I look at this tournament, the more I see Phil Mickelson and I have to have a little more on. I can see him using his irons and playing the kind of defensive but selectively aggressive golf that won him the Masters. It should be just what this course requires with it's doglegs and treacherous greens that sometimes call for the players to ignore the pins. I envisage Hoch as being one of the steady old guns that will do well here, he has the necessary accuracy and I am forgiving him his surprising flop last week. Even in this slightly stronger field the 140 is a big difference to his top priced of 40/1 last Wednesday, even taking into account the course form he had at last week's venue. He was in great form before then, remember it was less than 10 days ago that he was chasing Singh all the way to the line in Houston. I think Pettersson is so big because people are remembering his terrible flop when leading for a long way in the recent Honda classic. But after unsurprisingly having three subsequent bad tournaments, his two most recent finishes are 3rd and 15th (5th and 6th for GIR) and I remember how the greens and approaches to them at the Honda were well removed from what we usually see on the PGA Tour - I just wonder if the unusual demands on the iron play and short game here might suit him too. He stands a very respectable 29th on the tour's All Around Ranking and is slowly becoming a bit of a player. Not sure Campbell has the variety in his game that would be required here so will lay him, and DiMarco too, who is so frustrating for one so gifted and, 3 good rounds at the Masters apart, has done little of note for a good while now.


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Phil Mickelson 2.5 pts @ 9.4
Back David Toms 1 pt @ 46
Back Nick Price 0.75 pts @ 90
Back Jonathan Kaye 0.75 pts @ 130
Back Fred Funk 0.5 pts @ 200
Lay Tiger Woods 3 pts @ 7
Lay Vijay Singh 3 pts @ 7.8
Lay K.J. Choi 0.75 pts @ 32
Lay Mike Weir 0.5 pts @ 38
Lay Charles Howell 0.5 pts @ 48
Lay Stuart Appleby 0.25 pts @ 60
Lay Robert Allenby 0.25 pts @ 70
Lay Shigeki Maruyama 0.25 pts @ 75
That'll do for now! Although Singh rightly got all the plaudits for last week, Mickelson's iron play was awesome and I'd expect him to be the top dog now we're off the Bermuda-grass greens. Singh has won two Monday finishes but started slowly each time and the effort has to take it's toll sometime. At the very least he may start slowly again. This course is reported to be a shotmaker's course and I'm therefore supporting Toms, Price & Funk (1st, 5th and 11th last year) and chancing Jonathan Kaye at three figures again. He showed form again last time out and is 3rd for ball striking this year (driving plus iron play) behind Singh and Mickelson. Despite Woods' price being higher than any time in recent memory, I truly think it's a decent price to lay at this moment in time. Four of the other six lays are struggling for form, the exceptions being Choi and Howell but those two still disappoint me and I'm happy to lay. Despite this large amount of bets there may still be more to come before tee-off.