**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying short odds. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you wish to take these plays as recommendations, please do so but be aware that I can only manage the bets that I have actually struck and cannot give updates for bets you may have had (or not had) which are different to what is put up here.** 

Western Open @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Loss = 2 pts

Bank is now £1459.73 after 12 weeks (Up 22.99 pts overall).

Summary:
Appleby's putting was very, very poor indeed and he missed a massive chance for victory here. I would never have guessed he could be well inside the top ten for both driving accuracy and GIR this week and yet miss so many birdie opportunities. Seems I was not far away with getting the basis for the week's picks right (all the contenders did well in the putting categories and were outside the top ten for GIR) and therefore this has to go down as a disappointing week, despite getting two top tens from the picks. Still, I have to be glad that Appleby was on the premises as without him I could have easily gone in for a heavy lay of Ames prior to round four and made it a whole lot worse.





Page Update #2 (after round 3):
(Winner market)
Lay Stuart Appleby 4 pts @ 8.6
Lay Stuart Appleby 6 pts @ 4
Lay Stuart Appleby 15 pts @ 2
After what was looking like a very barren week, there is now a very real chance of collecting. The big reason for the expectation, apart from knowing that Appleby is a proven winner, is the flimsy contention records of many of those around him. Ames and Ogilvy are money-makers but, to date, absolutely not winners, Hensby is new to the main tour (although has done little wrong thus far), and Lowery is also very suspect under pressure; he has had 9 top threes since his last win at the end of the 2000 season.
Also on Appleby's side is his past course form, as mentioned below, his ability to play in the wind, and the facts that he is top 5 this week for GIR and his scores have progressed with each round; he is obviously playing excellently. Just don't mention that my reason for picking him was his putting ability and he currently lies in the bottom 20% of the field for both putting categories!
So, he will obviously need to hole more putts to win tomorrow, and other concerns are how he sometimes mysteriously loses his form badly on Sundays and also how he'll respond to playing with Tiger in round four. There is enough there for me to shy away and recoup a few points at this stage, and also to stick some other lays in should he start well.
Thought long and hard about laying almost every possible combination of all the other contenders but got tied up in all the numbers & possibilities and ultimately decided that I'm actually full of hope for an Appleby challenge. He is most definitely capable of upping that putting performance and going low under the Sunday pressure that most of the others have proved they don't enjoy.


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Davis Love 2 pts @ 21
Back Steve Flesch 1 pt @ 38
Back Stuart Appleby 1.5 pts @ 70
Back Joe Ogilvie 1.5 pts 170
I make this tournament one in which the best putters will excel. Accuracy nor length off the tee looks particularly important here, and in recent history there have been plenty of players contending at Cog Hill whose Putts Per Round stats were good, but their GIR stats were not.
First of all I'll explain why I'm going for a real touch with Joe Ogilvie, a progressive player whose putting is his undoubted strength. He sits in the top 20 on tour for both putting categories this season and has shown before (9th, 29th & 20th) that this course doesn't punish his inaccurate long game. The 9th place was his top finish of '99 and the 20th his third best of '01, which are encouraging facts, and there is little doubt that he is a much more accomplished performer now. He has secured 6 top 30s (4 top 20s) in his last eight starts, including doing absolutely nothing wrong under pressure when going right to the wire against Singh & Mickelson in New Orleans 2 months ago, and even one of the poorer finishes, last time out at Shinnecock, was no disgrace with a 40th place in a Major on a course totally unsuited to him. I would've preferred him to have qualified for the British Open on Monday just to have him in even better heart, but his first round there was a super 66 and, although missing out by a single shot, his performance showed there to be little wrong with his game at present. Over 150/1 for a promising young player who looks to have bottle, is in good form and has course form too ... a bit of a treat I feel. I'd be happy with the top bookmakers price of 125/1 even.
I think Appleby's recent form on tough tee-to-green tracks can be ignored as he too isn't very accurate, and he should relish the lesser pressure on the long game and emphasis put on putting this week. He has shown, with 5 top 20s (3 top 10s) in his last 7 appearances, that the course here is good for him and he has always been one that can bounce back without warning after a poor run. 66/1 (top bookies price) and over on a suitable course is well worth the risk as he is world class on his day.
Love too should enjoy not being severely punished for his increasingly wayward long game and his last three outings here have seen him runner-up twice and 7th. A disappointing couple of months shouldn't stop us remembering what he is capable of, and he is just like Appleby in that a five-star performance could come from anywhere. I am not overjoyed with this price but it is just about acceptable.
Flesch has suddenly managed to step up his putting in his the last two months and he's been rewarded with his second tour win, showing bottle many thought he didn't have, plus other finishes of 5th, 33rd & a superb 7th at the US Open. His long game is much better this year and, if he keeps his level of putting up to his recent standard, he looks sure to show up on a course where he has had two top tens in the past four years. There are currently bits of 40/1 around with the bookies if you look here.