AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Pre Round Four Trades (Final Summary: Well, the choice to close out paid as abject last day performances from Magee and Funk meant they slid away. A good week though and similar results for both tours sees us kick on and be at a good profit level for the season so far.) Profit 27.58 pts.

Buy Andrew Magee FP for 0.5 Pts at 12 with Sporting Index M/U 20.5, Profit 4.25 Pts
Buy Darren Clarke FP for 0.5 Pts at 14 with Sporting Index M/U 6.5, Loss 3.75 Pts
Buy Jeff Sluman FP for 0.5 Pts at 16 with Sporting Index M/U 9.5, Loss 3.25 Pts
Buy Fred Funk FP for 0.5 Pts at 32 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts
This is now an extremely tight event. There are 6 strokes between 8th and 50th and on a course where scoring low is a regular occurrence there will be players who will go up 30+ places tonight and some who do the reverse.
Funk is in the middle of this field but the upside of closing now is a bit bigger than the down as there are 34 players equal to or two strokes within his score so an average round tonight will see him drop away quickly. With the others being so high up the leaderboard we are potentially giving away profits but having done some sums it just takes one of the three to have a bad day and fall down quickly for it to wipe out any gain from the other two. Time will tell if we are making a good move or giving away profits but at the prices available, all are value and that is all that counts.

Round Three (Summary: As in previous years a few of the players who just made the cut have been "paid off" to disappear as space is needed for the 25 Celebs who made the last day. That means that our 4 remaining players are guaranteed to be Top 64 and of course increases their chances of a high finish. 3 are Top 10 anyway so we hope to have a good week although it wouldn't take much of a poor day to fall away tamely. Funk is 30th and could of course go either way as was shown by the players backed in New Zealand.)

Round Two (Summary: No bets stood out today and with the differing courses it may be best watched until the cut. Four of our five players are high up the leaderboard and Rollins has done enough today to give him a fair shot at making the last round on Sunday)

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Rollins looks detached although he does have the advantage of 36 holes before the cut but of course that works both ways and means the others bar Magee who is -5 need to keep their initial form up. Further trades through Thu/Fri will depend on course scoring averages, if there is a distinct difference in scoring over the three courses we may just let these 5 run)

Sell Darren Clarke FP for 0.5 Pts at 33.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 6.5, Profit 12.64 Pts
A 3rd round 83 at Pebble in the 2000 US Open left Clarke trailing in 53rd place in his only visit to the Monterey Peninsula. No one that week bar a certain Mr. Woods coped with the conditions so we are in effect suggesting Clarke based on his general efforts Stateside. 9 Top 20's in 24 starts is comparable with his own tour stats so over 33 seems a tad high. The problem we have this week is we have the biggest field of the year so at face value buying should be the way to go but the prices seem to reflect this. Therefore, we will try to sort out the very best sells that are available before play starts.

Sell Andrew Magee FP for 0.5 Pts at 36 with IG Sport M/U 20.5, Profit 7.75 Pts
Most of my fancies this week have a desperate record in this event but there is a little light in Magee's record as along with 6 missed cuts he has a 3rd and a 7th. He is arguably in the form of his life, two Top 10's and a 40th place last week is better than his norm so with a known downside we will stick with him whilst he is playing well but more importantly being under-valued in the prices.

Sell Jeff Sluman FP for 0.5 Pts at 38 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 9.5, Profit 13.54 Pts
Last week Slu got the worst of the weather on day 1 and subsequently played himself right out of contention. His course form as well is quite poor, never better than 25th in 6 attempts, but I feel 38 is just about 2 to 3 points higher than it should be. We have a large field this week but arguably that just makes the quality difference more stretched.

Sell Fred Funk FP for 0.5 Pts at 36 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7 Pts
Another player with poor form here, a 33rd in three visits being his only cut made. Current form though is more encouraging with only 2 cuts missed in his last 14 events from which his first win in many years was accomplished. 6 Top 10's in 04' shows us a player who can be very consistent and if he can get off to a good start here he may turn out to be a snitch at 36 to sell.

Sell John Rollins FP for 0.5 Pts at 38.8 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 5.6 Pts
Mindful of the field quantity and that the best prices are sells this week, I am quite happy with the fact that our 5 sells have an average price of 36+ as what with the quantity of players and the course form of our picks we really don't want to be taking prices too low. Rollins is another with poor course form, where a 15th in 02' sits with a 47th and two cuts. He qualifies though for us this week with an 11th last week in Scottsdale which was another good finish as Rollins has now posted 50% Top 25's since the Western Open last July. Before then he had been absolutely woeful in the early part of 04', possibly a reaction to losing to Woods in the Matchplay when 1 up with 2 to play.

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