Bay Hill Invitational

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Cink 8th
Clarke 8th
Johnson 8th

All three finished one shot out of the place money and all three could have made it with ease. Both Cink and Johnson were at the necessary 4-under-par, but bogeyed the last hole, while Clarke managed to have a NINE on his 1st round card and still only finish one shot out of the top-5.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Stewart Cink to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
The top-3 dominate the market so much that there is even a 'w/o Woods, Singh and Els' market this week. While I can't find any value in the odds for these three players, I think that it is there in the next tier of players on the PGA Tour. Cink, Clarke and Johnson fit into that category. As a two-time winner last season, Cink certainly had a memorable year and while he has yet to win in 2005, his worst finish has been 26th and he already has three 5th places finishes this season. Having made the cut in all six visits to Bay Hill, notably finishing 6th in 2000 and 2nd in 2003, he could produce another good performance this week.

Darren Clarke to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Bet365, BlueSq, BetDirect and Coral
Clarke hasn't played since the World Matchplay at La Costa, but it will have been important for him to have spent time with his family before returning to the United States for a month until the MCI Heritage. And he should find inspiration on his return from Harrington's victory last week. He was playing well enough before his break to win on the PGA Tour - finishes of 1st, 4th, 6th and 3rd in his last four strokeplay events - and was leading this event at the early stages last year, so the omens look good for this time around.

Zach Johnson to win 50/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Johnson was also in contention throughout last year's event and finished 6th alongside Clarke and fresh off a 3rd place finish at Doral, he could certainly repeat last year's performance. He had a solid start to the season on the West Coast Swing, but he does tend to play better in Florida where he won two Hooters Tour events in 2001. There has been a lot of support for Johnson this week since Ladbrokes opened for a couple of hours at 80/1 and this price will probably not last until Thursday either.