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BellSouth Classic
Agonising to watch Olly miss not one but TWO very makable putts to win. His subsequent performance in the play-off has to cast major doubts on his prospects for Augusta.
However, it's another good week on the profit front. Both Lays were matched and the place money returned.
FINAL RESULT: Paid 6.6pts to the bookies, got 13.5 back. Won 13.6 pts overall on the Betfair market, which is 12.92 nett of comission. FINAL TOTAL: +19.82 pts
Update
Back Ryuji Imada 0.4pts @120 at Betfair
Back Joey Snyder 1pt @42 at Betfair
Zach Johnson won here as a rookie last year and I'm hoping that Imada or Snyder can follow in his footsteps. Imada is young and relatively inexperienced, but does have 2 titles to his name on the Nationwide Tour. He went to college at The University of Georgia so might just have a bit of a home-town following to spur him on here. Snyder is something of a journey man, attending Q-school every year for the past decade and only now this season qualifying. This represents a great chance for him to secure his playing priveleges for the forseeable future. His GIR stats have been excellent so far and if he can get the putter working then, at only two shots off the lead, these are tasty odds.
Putting up some hedges for these two as well:
LAY Imada 5pts @3 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Imada 10pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Snyder 5pts @3 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Snyder 10pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched
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Update after Sunday:
Putting in some hedges on Olazabal for the final round
LAY JM Olazabal 5pts @3 at Betfair -- matched
LAY JM Olazabal 10pts @2 at Betfair -- matched
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Update:
Sorry to have to go to the bookies again for prices, but there really isn't much action in the betfair market yet and i think there could well be strong support for these players during the week.
Back Jose Maria Olazabal 1pt e/w @50/1 available generally
The word is that there is virtually no rough to speak of on the course, which is certainly good to hear when considering backing Jose. Olazabal has had a recent purple patch, with two top 10s in his last two events and should thrive in these Augusta-like conditions.
Back Tom Pernice 0.3pts e/w @200/1 at StanleyBet (6 places) also 200/1 at Coral and GolfingGods
Straight from the horse's mouth:
"I think this course suits my game. I like the closely mowed areas around the greens. I like it when it plays firm and fast. I just kind of like, like Augusta used to be set up before they had rough, really. I kind of like that hard feel. I feel like I can pitch the ball around the greens really well when the green's really hard and mowed tight, when some people maybe struggle a little bit. I like firmer greens and faster greens. I liked it ever since I came here, to be honest with you.
Ok, he's missed 5 cuts in a row, but the switch from Florida and coming to a place he obviously likes might just be the fresh start he needs. It's big odds and I feel it's worth the risk to take them.
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Looking to the bookies for a few early prices:
Back Duffy Waldorf 0.7pts e/w @100/1 at Victor Chandler
There's not a whole lot to get excited about for Duffy this week. He has solid, but unspectacular course form, likewise with current form. Simply the price is too big - somewhere around the 66's mark looks more realistic to me.
Back Skip Kendall to finish in the top five 0.5pts @60/1 at GolfingGods
4 top 20's in his last 5 outings here for Kendall. I feel he has to be backed place only though, as he is not what you'd call a proven winner! Very large odds when you consider he is a low as 125/1 to win in most places.
Back Angel Cabrera 0.8pts e/w @80/1 at GolfingGods
This is a course where distance is an advantage and Cabrera is certainly not wanting in that department. He's settled in fairly well in America this season, with finishes of 23rd, 10th and 40th - willing to forgive his missed cut at Sawgrass as any waywardness off the tee there was punished heavily. I don't expect that to be the case this week.
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