Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

Final Summary: 22.7 pt profit on the week which made up for losses elsewhere. Pity about Jacobson being the player going backwards on Sunday as we had a double play on him, but he still made a good profit. All in all a good event for us.


Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: The 3 buys are ok even although Toms shot low yesterday, he needed to. Of the sells, a bit of a mixed bag but in an event where a 69 leaves you trailing the field we cannot expect our fancied players to shoot 67 or less for 5 rounds.)

Buy David Toms FP for 0.5 pts at 30 with IG Sport M/U 31, Profit 0.5 Pts.
Toms is being priced here on reputation. Yes, we have 3 rounds to go and a full 36 holes before the cut but at the moment, Toms trails the top 20 by 4 shots. With this being an event where shooting two 69's by Thursday night leaves you detached, Toms has to go up a couple of gears just to threaten our position on him currently. At 30 it is a sound buy.

Buy Jay Haas FP for 0.5 pts at 32 with IG Sport M/U 25.5, Loss 3.25 Pts.
Topping up on Haas as he is still too low. Currently 52nd, he has to shoot really low to get up past 32nd. All three of these R3 plays are, in my opinion, a good 3 or 4 points lower than they should be.

Buy Scott Verplank FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with IG Sport M/U 25.5, Loss 4.25 Pts.
Similar to Toms, Verplank is -5 and adrift in this event. The fact there are 36 holes to the cut gives him time to catch up but looking at the current leaderboard I would rather be a buyer at IG's 34 than a seller 34 elsewhere.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Still no worries, with Allenby, of our sells, in the poorest position (52nd). Jacobson and Herron are top 10 so all in all we are in a fair position. With a 4th round cut though there is a long way to go. The two buys are cancelling each other out with Mickelson 2nd but Haas 52nd.)

Sell Loren Roberts FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with IG Sport M/U 4.5, Profit 14.75 Pts.
A first round 68 sees Roberts get a quote roughly where he is in the field. Looking at the current leaderboard though I would be inclined to rate Loren just a little lower although of course we do have 72 holes to play. Never worse than 40th in five visits here, this is fair value.

Sell Fredrik Jacobson FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with IG Sport M/U 15.5, Profit 8.75 Pts.
I can see no reason not to go in again on Freddie after a R1 68. A 68 sees him only tied 32rd as it is a low scoring tournament. I would be more worried though if he had shot in the 70's and was way behind.

Sell Kevin Sutherland FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts.
Three of our trades in R2 are on 68 and probably happy with their current position. For the same reasons as my two other trades on Roberts and Jacobson, I think mid 30's is high for a player on 68, who has two previous Top 10's here in the past.

Sell Robert Allenby FP for 0.5 pts at 37 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 6.5 Pts.
Allenby is on 69 after R1 but he has a fair record in this event which surprises me as I don't see him as the pro-am type. 11th and 12th in three events here shows he doesn't mind the format nor the easiness of the course setup.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: No major worries on the scores from these 4 so far. The scoring averages for the courses suggest there isn't a great deal of advantage/disadvantage gained in having already played a particular course in R1)

Buy Jay Haas FP for 0.5 pts at 27.6 with Spreadfair M/U 25.5, Loss 1.05 Pts.
Haas has came in for support today as he was a good couple of points higher than this yesterday. So much so that I now consider him a value buy at the price. I am a big believer in current form over course and although current form is sparse, punters have latched on to Haas' record here the last two years, 2nd and 3rd. For most of last year we were backing Haas as his price was high but this week i feel it is now too low. His record here in his career not just on these two latest efforts shows an average FP of 30.

Buy Phil Mickelson FP for 0.5 pts at 19 with Spreadex M/U 12.5, Loss 3.25 Pts.
Going to play Mickelson again, purely on price. Given that he shot a 78 last week and finished outside the top 50 i would have assumed this week he would have been around 21/22. Two wins and two 16th places in four visits suggest this is a risky bet but then he had a great record last week and struggled. With the, albeit, sparse current form we have to go on he shouldn't be 19 to buy.

Sell Fredrik Jacobson FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with IG Sport M/U 15.5, Profit 9.75 Pts.
Taking a price early here before Spreadex and Sporting price it up as I don't think this will be bettered, certainly the opening show at Spreadfair is 2 pts lower. 20th last week was a fair start for the Swede and with this field lacking the quality the Buick had 35 is a value price. 9 top 20's in 04' but the vast majority were in the first half of the year (7) so maybe a trend has started with another top 20 last week.

Sell Tim Herron FP for 0.5 pts at 36 with IG Sport M/U 6.5, Profit 14.75 Pts.
Similar here. Herron has also one top 20 from one attempt this year, but in Hawaii, at the Sony. Similar seasonal stats also for Lumpy with 6 Top 20s before June but only one after. Course form sees a missed cut last year but previously he was 3rd in 2003 (poor last round 75) so all in all a high price for a man who I wouldn't back to win but is a good FP sell.

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