Byron Nelson Championship


FINAL RESULT: -8.25pts
Nothing doing in the end. Donald looked in the picture till Saturday but just couldn't get going on a birdie run to get up in to real contention.


Update after round 3:
Back Doug Barron 1pt @18.5 at Betfair
Lay Doug Barron 2pts @3 at Betfair -unmatched
Lay Doug Barron 3pts @2 at Betfair -unmatched
Lay Doug Barron 4pts @1.5 at Betfair -unmatched
Barron hasn't exactly proven himself as someone who grabs the chance to win when it comes along, but then who at the top end of the leaderboard here has? Todd Hamilton is the only one, but his odds are very much on the short side because of that. Simply can't see why Barron is available at such big odds compared to O'Hair and Purdy and as such he looks a good trading prospect.


Putting up a hedge just in case Donald gets off to a flyer today.
LAY Luke Donald 10pts @3 at Betfair -unmatched
LAY Luke Donald 10pts @2 at Betfair -unmatched
LAY Luke Donald 20pts @1.5 at Betfair -unmatched


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Update:
Back Dudley Hart to finish in the top five 0.75pts @50/1 at Centrebet
Perhaps Dudley Hart should be nicknamed 'primrose' because round about April/May is when his game seems to flower every year, as these prunings from his PGA Tour record show:
1998:
26th April: 11th in Greater Greensboro Classic
3rd May: 4th in Houston Open
1999:
25th April: 4th in GGC
9th May: 10th in Compaq Classic
2000:
23rd April: 3rd in GGC
2001:
6th May: 11th in CC
13th May: 11th in Byron Nelson Classic
2002:
5th May: 2nd in CC
19th May: 4th in Mastercard Colonial
2003:
season disrupted due to herniated disc.
2004:
25th April: 4th in Houston Open
16th May: 2nd in Byron Nelson Championship.

That second place here last year was a rather meek playoff loss to Sergio Garcia and perhaps illustrates that Hart is not the most reliable at converting contentions in to victories. But to be placed these seem like very generous odds.


Back Tim Herron to finish in the top ten 1.5pts @8/1 at Stan James
'Lumpy' did miss the cut in his last event at New Orleans, but before that he was in some nice form, following up a 6th at The Players with an 11th at The Masters. He also has two other top ten finishes to his name this season at the Bob Hope and FBR. His performances in this event have been rather hit and miss it has to be said. In his last 6 appearances he's had a 4th (last year), a 9th and an 11th... and 3 missed cuts. As ever this is about the odds, and as he's 66/1 to win in most places, the 8/1 for a top ten seems very reasonable.


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Back Luke Donald 2.5pts e/w @33/1 at William Hill
In ten events this season he has finished outside the top 15 just once. This is a player who is not only incredibly consistent but can mix it with the big boys in the strongest of fields. Clear evidence of that is found in his last two PGA tour events: 2nd at The Players and 3rd at The Masters. He followed those up with two top 10 finishes in China - his first ever trip to Asia so he'll no doubt be glad to be back in the more familiar surroundings of the US. And on top of all that, this is an event which should be made for him. No real premium on distance off the tee and small greens has favoured players who are reknowned for excellent iron play - Nick Price for one has a phenomenal record here. Donald was 19th here two years ago, 14th last year, and he has improved enormously as a player in that time. The only question mark is over his ability to close out events on this tour. There have been one or two slight concerns on that front but certainly not enough to damn him with. At the very least this is an exceptional value e/w bet.