The Colonial

FINAL RESULT: -6.3pts

Double bogey from Jobe on the 3rd last hole which took him out the places in to a tie for 6th was the difference between a winning week and the losing one it turned out to be.

Update after round 2:

Perry looks a likely winner now. The current Betfair odds of  2.3 - 2.4 on him are about right in my opinion. Most of the bookies however are at odds-on prices and thus there is some room for a bit of value in others.

Back Tim Clark 0.5pts e/w @66/1 at BlueSq

 BlueSq are the lowest of the lot on Perry at an incredibly skinny 1.66.  The price that stands out there is that on Tim Clark. A streaky round yesterday including 6 birdies in a row. Streaky play seems to be what is required here. Has a victory to his name already this season in South Africa which should stand him in good stead if he can get close to Perry.

Back Loren Roberts 0.3pts e/w @100/1 at SportingOdds and SkyBet

Already backed him outright and no concerns so far with his performance, but if Perry runs away with this then it could well just be a case of the rest playing for place money so having a bit on e/w.

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Update after round 1:

Nice start from Jobe, almost tempted to have a little more on at the current price, but will leave it for now. None of the others out of it, although a fair bit of catching up to be done.

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The last 8 winners of this event are Flesch, Perry, Price, Garcia, Mickelson, Browne, Watson and Frost. This suggests two things: 1. experience and 2. ball-striking. The following four players all firmly belong to both of those categories.

Back Tom Lehman 2.5pts @48 at Betfair
Back Corey Pavin 0.6pts @180 at Betfair
Back Loren Roberts 0.6pts @180 at Betfair
Back Bart Bryant 0.5pts @220 at Betfair

Tom Lehman's renaissance continues: his last two events have produced a 2nd at the Players and 13th at The Masters. All that is missing is a win. Unfortunately the longer he goes without winning the harder it will be to do it. But he has won here before and his solid ball striking game should see him have a good chance to contend and provide a possible trade at low odds.
Lehman would have been the next name on the winners roll above and after that comes Corey Pavin. Pavin struggles badly due to his lack of length on many of the courses on tour in the present day. This however is one where it shouldn't be a problem. A solid showing last week on a similar set up and good form here in the past is proof of that.
Much of the same applies for Loren Roberts, who is also not the longest, but his accuracy should be of much greater importance here. He missed the cut in his last start at Wachovia due to a terrible first round 80, but he has come in to this event off the back of a missed cut in both the last two years and finished 13th and 12th.
Bart Bryant has never played in this event before, but he ranks 16th on tour for ball striking, has several top 20 finishes this season and of course won in Texas last season.

Back Brandt Jobe 0.25pts e/w @200/1 at SportingOdds/SportingBet
Came from seemingly nowhere to make the playoff at the BellSouth Classic, since then his performances have been fairly solid, although not spectacular. Shot a final round 64 to finish in 4th place in this event last year and is well worth a stab at odds this long.