Deutsche Bank Championship

Summary: Bets 7, Wins 2, Losses 3, Ties 2. Loss = 5.25 Pts. Another loser and a time to take stock. In the last two weeks we have suffered about 100 pts losses which would be understandable had we played 50+ bets but we haven't. Hopefully, things will get back to normal and the next time there is some rogue results we fall on the right side of them.

Pre Round Three Trades

Sell Sean O' Hair / Justin Leonard 18H MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 0
I was deliberating in passing this one over as we are supporting Leonard and opposing O' Hair in other bets but felt that I would regret it and put it down to the recent poor run if I ignored it and it turned out a winner. Leonard should be favourite and is a good bet off of levels.

Pre Round Two Trades

Buy Sean O' Hair FP at 25 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 20.5, Loss 2.25 Pts
This price just seems a little low at this stage of the event. O' Hair is a consistent performer as we stated below but with 3 rounds to go and in a current FP position of 20 he should be a bit higher. An eagle on the last yesterday made a huge difference to his score and covered what was a fairly average performance. 
 

Pre Round One Trades

Sell Vaughn Taylor / Tim Petrovic 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 5.75 Pts
Buy Shigeki Maruyama / Jason Bohn 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -25, Loss 6.62 Pts
Sell Sean O' Hair / Jonathan Byrd 18H MB at 3.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.92 Pts
Byrd is in some up and down form at the moment but that seems to have been reflected in his price. However, strip away at the full weeks work and only consider Thursdays (or Friday in this case !!!!) and his worst R1 score since April is 75, with 72 being the 2nd worst. O' Hair meanwhile is consistency personified with only one missed cut since February but he rarely shoots very low and at the price there is value in siding with Byrd. Petrovic is supported as he has knowledge of the course having finished Top 25 the last two years and it may take Taylor a round to find his feet. Arguably, Taylor is in better form but they are probably fairly equal in ability so the course info may cancel out the current form for the first day. Finally, Maruyama has similar current form but superior course form and scoring average to suggest the 0-3 at other firms is about right. Take the choice bet at IG 

Sell Greg Owen FP at 37 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.5 Pts M/U 49 Loss 6 Pts
Rarely these days do we suggest an FP sell but sometimes a price just doesn't do justice to the player in question and what we have here is an opinion that Owen is probably not as good a player as his results so far in this year suggest. 8 Top 25's in 17 starts is comparable with players who will be quoted regularly in the low 30s'. Also, strip away Woods, Love and Johnson and this is arguably one of the poorer PGA fields of the season. Chris on the Betfair page also puts a good case forward for his Ryder Cup worries and with that behind him he is fresh to play for his wages in his new full time workplace.

Sell Brad Faxon over Justin Leonard 72H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 0
A closing 61 last week saw Faxon get into and win a play off and that may have an adverse effect on him this week. It can be difficult to mentally prepare the week after but even allowing for that possibility I would argue we have the wrong favourite in this match up. Faxon does have course form that Leonard doesn't and of course the current form immediately from last week but looking at the bigger picture I would side with Leonard. He has a scoring average almost half a stroke lower than Faxon and has two wins this season where he seems to have come back to the form of the late 90's. I am quite sure that had Faxon shot 71 in R4 last week Leonard would be a clear favourite in this match up.