FBR Open

Pre Round Four Trades (Final Summary: One of these "could have been worse" weeks. But, all in all to get 8 out of 9 players through a cut and lose is hard to take.)

Final total: -20.75 Pts.

Buy Stewart Cink FP for 0.5 pts at 15 with Spreadex M/U 14.5, Loss 0.25 Pts
Last play of the week. None of the traded players are value to close but Cink seems a little low at 15 with IG and Spreadex. This is one of these "bigger upside" bets where Cink would have to shoot mid 60's to lose us 6 points but were he to shoot anything above 72 he could slide quite considerably. At the current situation I would pitch him around 17/18.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: We are up against it now as not enough of our players have kicked on and moved into a profitable position. All we can hope for is a good day for our final 6 (I have discounted Jacobson) and that enough is done to cover the total starting prices.)

Buy Andrew Magee FP for 0.5 pts at 45 with IG Sport M/U 42, Loss 1.5 Pts
Buy Shigeki Maruyama FP for 0.5 pts at 43 with IG Sport M/U 38, Loss 2.5 Pts
Closing two bets to save what i feel will be 6 pts. Both players are T70 and at +3. It has been proven to be successful so far closing out bets in the mid 40s, we do so though for one reason only, that being the true price is now nearer 50 on both so long term it pays to adopt this policy.


Round Two: (Summary: The upside of our position is we have only lost one player, Sluman, to the cut. The downside is most of the rest just made it. We have 290 points grace over 9 players so we need a climb up the leaderboard from a few of them.)

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Horrendous winds seen scores go all over the place and when that happens you'd rather be a buyer. All in all though, the position isn't too bad but it all depends on tonight and how many we get through to the weekend. Only Sluman looks certain to go, whereas Haas, Oberholser and Ames have a bit to do.)

Sell Shigeki Maruyama FP for 0.5 pts at 31 with Spreadex M/U 38, Loss 3.5 Pts
Shigeki was 3rd in Hawaii at the Sony and followed up with a 30th in the Buick. So he has good current form. His course form is average, he has made all four cuts, but his best finish is 19th. We will therefore play this on current form which I always believe to be more reliable.

Sell Jay Haas FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with Spreadex M/U 46.5, Loss 6.75 Pts
We opposed Haas last week at 28, but his value has flip flopped this week and he is back at his usual pricing area from which we gained a lot of success last year. Like Maruyama, Haas has made his cuts here, albeit in only two visits, finishing 24th and 33rd. His 05' record so far is average, 23rd and 45th but he has been a reliable FP sell in the past and I see no reason in not supporting him in the mid 30's.

Sell Bob Estes FP for 0.5 pts at 37 with Spreadex M/U 33, Profit 2 Pts.
Estes had a terrible start to 04' when he became a shadow of the player we had seen contend so much in the past. Late on though, he seemed to improve and with three Top 20's in the Autumn then a 3rd place in Australia near Christmas, he has no doubt came into this year with renewed confidence. His start has been encouraging without standing out, 20th and 42nd in two events so far. 37 is fairly high for a player of his ability who has now posted 6 Top 20's in 9 events since September.

Sell Scott Verplank FP for 0.5 pts at 29.5 (spread free) with Spreadex M/U 21, Profit 4.25 Pts.
Taking advantage of Spreadex's spread free offer to get Verplank at the best price possible. We opposed him last week in running purely on price. He had too much to do to justify the quotes at that particular period of the event. He did however, go on to shoot a 62 but a R5 73 meant he finished 23rd. His late record in 04' was three top 20's in October/November and he is a player, like Haas, who is very reliable when supporting without ever looking like a tournament winner.

Sell Freddie Jacobson FP for 0.5 pts at 31 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 9.5 Pts
Freddie gave us a great run last week and he seems over-priced at 31 this week. This was Freddie's 2nd Top 20 of the year and confirms the trend he showed last year of getting better results in the first half of the season. He was 9th here last year so everything points to a fair week.

Sell Stephen Ames FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with Sporting Index M/U 25, Profit 4.5 Pts.
Ames is one of those enigma's like Verplank and Haas who rarely win, but feature on the leaderboard most weeks, great players to have on your side in this particular betting medium. Three Top 20's in Five events is similar course form to his general form last year where he posted 14 out of 27 Top 20's but like Jacobson, most in the first half of the season. He has started slow this year, hence the 34 quote but it gives us the chance to back him at a higher price than in some time in normal events.

Sell Aaron Oberholser FP for 0.5 pts at 37 with Sporting Index M/U 42, Loss 2.5 Pts
6th last week, Aaron has no real course form to boast but with a 28th in the Sony accompanying last weeks finish he is off to a good start in 05. Five Top 20's last year and a similar early/late split but arguably his greatest result last year was 13th in the PGA at Whistling Straits. 37 seems a couple of points too high.

Sell Jeff Sluman FP for 0.5 pts at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 7 Pts
Slu had a good week last week finishing well over the weekend to end up 18th to follow up his 28th in Hawaii. Slu is a steady player who rarely misses cuts (5 last year), posting a 27th in Scottsdale in 2004.

Sell Andrew Magee FP for 0.5 pts at 37 with Sporting Index M/U 42, Loss 2.5 Pts
Magee has had injury problems but since coming back from them has played particularly well. Two Top 10's this year out of two attempts is good going after missing the whole of 2004. I was still cautious about selling him this week but decided to as he has a 8 from 8 cut making record here albeit with no Top 10's. Still, he has still cleared 37 four of the eight times when in no doubt poorer form than he goes into this week with.

Sell Zach Johnson FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with Spreadex M/U 25, Profit 4.5 Pts.
Last play before they start. Johnson bedded in well to his main tour, winning in April, but more importantly for our bet type, rarely missing cuts. He has started this year similarly, two Top 25s out of 3, with the worst result 47th. His schedule was set up in a way that he didn't play too many weeks in a row so he missed this event last year. I would hope though that this is not a hindrance to our bet.






 

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