Ford Championship at Doral

(Final Summary: Strange set of results where only Price was close to his original quote. In the end, with a great Goosen comeback, Cabrera made the difference. It was evident that Olazabal and Toms were holding their form but were never a value bet to take a hit on so we needed that last round 67 from Cabrera to ultimately bring us a good return on the week.) Profit 10.5pts

Update: Our position is better now with Goosen shooting over par yesterday and Price coming up the leaderboard into the top 40. I would suggest we lets things run as prices are fairly correct so we will let fate take over and see what R4 brings.

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: We were very close to being in a very strong position. Weir needed 3 birdies in the last 5 holes to survive but achieved the necessary by 16. Scott played badly to miss by some way and Price got over the cut line with a great run today. Our buys of the top end players hasn't improved a great deal so for Jaidee in Dubai read Weir in Miami. If Weir stays down the field then his buy and the banked cash on Scott will mostly cover what others do. Cabrera also has played well today and sits at -7.)

Buy Jose Maria Olazabal at 20 with IG Sport MU 6.5, Loss 6.75 pts
With nine of the world's Top 10 players here and all bar Weir starting well, 20 seems low for Olly even although he is currently in the lead. There are 54 holes to go and it is long odds on he will be at least 2 or 3 strokes behind when he stands on the first tee today. Last year in the Bellsouth Olly started with a 65 and finished 45th, in Germany at the Deutsche Bank he shot 66 and fell to 28th and finally at Disney he shot 65 in R1 and finished 41st. So there are examples of him starting well but falling away tamely. Strangely this is Olly's first visit to Doral so we can offer no previous course form although he has started the year ok with a 9th in Tucson. All in all, this is a fair price with so far to go in the event especially when you consider that Brian Davis, also at -8, with better current form is 3 points higher.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Mirror image of where we stood at the end of R1 in Dubai. Weir and Cabrera are in a good position for our trades just now, Price and Goosen are not, and Scott and Toms are fairly average.)

Buy Retief Goosen at 22 with Sporting Index MU 8.5, Loss 6.75 pts
Going to go against the crowd a little this week as I think the prices are just a little low on a couple of the more fancied runners. Goosen was 3rd last week at the WGC but along with 3 others in this field he played 36 holes a day for 3 solid days. Although he rarely plays here Retief was 3rd last year and in his only other appearance 33rd in 2000. He had a fairly successful year in 04' with two wins on this tour but it is noticeable that 2 of his 3 missed cuts were in Florida in March. Goosen is rarely priced as low as 22 on this tour and this is arguably one of the Top 5 fields that will assemble this year for a "common" event.

Buy David Toms at 23 with Sporting Index MU 5, Loss 9 pts
Interviewed after his win last week, Toms admitted that everything fell into place perfectly and he was supremely confident on every shot he played. He did, like Goosen, play 36 holes a day and may suffer a letdown from the euphoria last week brought. Like Goosen, 23 is as low as you will generally see for Toms, even in average fields but this is a top class field this week and on that basis Toms should be a couple of points higher than he is. Course form is very up and down, with two top 5's alongside 3 occasions he has M/U at 50 for FP purposes.

Sell Nick Price at 38 with Sporting Index MU 38.5, Loss 0.25 pts
Price is an elder statesman of the tour now and admittedly was well beaten at the WGC by Woods in R1. However, he is bullish about his game just now and he has course form here to die for. 20/2/36/10/3/7/5/48/11 is in chronological order his record round this track so it averages out FP wise at about 17/18. We have to accept that Price is not the player of old but he was 11th last year and 6th at Augusta a few weeks later so he hasn't totally lost the ability that seen him become easily the best player in the world around 1993/94.

Sell Angel Cabrera at 36 with Sporting Index MU 10.5, Profit 11.75 pts
Two Top 20s and a MC is good form here and generally Angel plays well in the States. 23rd two weeks ago at the rain delayed Nissan, this followed up a 2004 record of 3 Top 20s in 6 events where two of the others were majors. Cabrera is probably a far better player than he generally gets priced up when in the States and he is listed at prices to sell along with other players from outwith the US who have done far less on the tour than he has.

Buy Adam Scott at 28 with Spreadex MU 50, Profit 11 pts
For reasons similar to our other buys, Scott seems a tad low at 28 with Spreadex, and it is noticeable that IG who opened up 28 have moved the price upwards. Scott "won" the Nissan two weeks ago then performed well for a fair part of the matchplay last week. However, his PGA record is littered with false promises with 4 missed cuts mixed in with some impressive performances throughout last year. There is certainly an argument that Scott misses more cuts than players of his level. As this is his course debut I am prepared to trade him at a fairly low 28.

Buy Mike Weir at 30 with Spreadex MU 50, Profit 10 pts
Good course form here with 3 top 20's in 5 events but in such a quality field I reckon he is a good addition to the list of bets this week. 6 missed cuts in 04' show that Weir, like Scott, can be a bit hit and miss so 30 is worthy of a bet. We have, at the moment, 4 buys at a fairly low average price, albeit on quality players, and two sells risking 13pts of our bank so we may trade our way in and out as the event continues.

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