Honda Classic

Finishing Positions (0.5 pt stakes) Profit = 21.4 Pts.

Pre Round Four Trades: (Summary: A rollercoaster of a week and when you get swings like we have this week, Na being the perfect example, you wonder if you had done things differently could you have got more out of it. The answer honestly is no, we have traded value on every single price this season and will do so from now on. If a supported player shoots 80 or an opposed one shoots 62 there is nothing we can do about that. Today Baddeley shot low but so did Rose, Harrington shot low but so did Singh, but the P & L at the top is all that really matters, we can't win on every trade but as long as we win long term we will do ok.

Buy Bob Estes at 43 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 3.5 Pts.
Basically adopting the same policy as in the Euro event. Estes yesterday shot himself out of the event and is now Tied 52nd but the way the leaderboard is he is more likely to finish above 43rd than below it. The firms will actively look at this point to offer incentives for customers to take a bad price to close and IG are offering 39-41 on Campbell as they were lowest on him at 8 after R1. Although if Campbell returns to form today we may not make as much it is a bad value price and I would certainly advise against anyone taking the carrot that is being dangled. Closing Estes is the best option and hope that Na, Campbell and Love all fail to get over the 50 threshold.

Pre Round Three Trades: (Summary: This was easily the biggest rollercoaster day of our year so far. Breaking down the results, the two closures turned out a good move as both are still well outside the Top 50. Of our 2 sells still running, Harrington is around his original quote and Estes has fell backwards badly. Of the buys, Toms and Singh shot well today and are probably losers but Na, Campbell and Love are now outside the top 50. Finally, Baddeley is a slight winner at current scores. We shall see what tomorrow's prices bring and will react accordingly.)

Buy Carl Pettersson at 45 with IG Sport M/U 48.5, Profit 1.75 Pts.
Buy Jeff Sluman at 45 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 2.5 Pts.
Buy Padraig Harrington at 33 with Sporting Index M/U 1, Loss 16 Pts
Closing half the Harrington bet to get the risk in line with all the other trades. True price is probably around the 33 mark so we are not giving up any value to close the R2 bet out, but it isn't value by far enough though to close totally. Closing the other two for a loss may seem alien to some but the true price of both is much nearer 50 and although its hard to do, taking a loss can be better in the long run that taking a profit early. I feel that when totalling up the average expectancy of each trade left it would level us out on so its all down now to luck in running although of course we will examine the prices again tomorrow morning. Note: these prices are generally available if any of the above change.

Pre Round Two Trades: (Summary: Well the situation for us is no clearer. All 11 players have made the weekend and our best position at the moment is Estes, our worst, Na. 6 shots cover 70 players so we will have to study the new prices tomorrow morning and trade our way through the prices that appeal. I do think though that we aren't in that great a position at the current state of play although Toms, Singh and Love all bogeying 18 made a big difference.)

Buy Aaron Baddeley at 23 with Spreadex M/U 12, Loss 5.5 Pts
Badds has played the Honda 4 times. He has M/U at 50, three times out of four but more noticeably he has finished 57th twice after shooting under 70 in R1. At 23 and given his overall record on this tour I feel the price is too low. We have opposed Badds more than most on this Tour and there seems no reason at this price not to do so again. He has finished 7th (2 rounds only) and 6th in his last two events and has started well here but the leaderboard is bunched enough to mean he will need to continue this form to have us lose a significant amount

Buy Chad Campbell at 8 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 21 Pts.
The advice here is to place this bet then expect to lose 3.5 pts and anything else is a bonus. More seriously, Campbell is 3 clear and could conceivably coast to victory this week. I think though that it would only take a par round today and Chad is right back in the pack and certainly not a single figure FP quote. Like Badds, he is in great form currently and has continued it but golf goes from day to day and no two rounds are the same so they say. Therefore, 6-8 from IG is just over estimating his chances just that little bit.

Buy Vijay Singh at 18 with Spreadex M/U 2.5, Loss 7.75 Pts
This is a play on price and also on the fact that Singh is arguably at the moment not the all conquering player he has been over the last 18 months. Yes, he finished 3rd last week but he has openly admitted his putting is suspect at the moment and 31 putts yesterday continued that problem. If he continues to putt poorly then 18 may seem a very good bet come Sunday. Of course it could all click into place but mixing up all the possibilities, including a late tee time, he should be no less than 20 so 18 is fair and we can of course trade out of it if we wish later in the event.

Buy David Toms at 22 with Spreadex M/U 5, Loss 8.5 Pts
I was very close to suggesting Toms yesterday at 19 then decided against it as he had been playing so brilliantly recently. Well, after a R1 71 he now sits at a price only 3 pts above the original and has 40 players ahead of him AND an afternoon tee time today when the wind is a little stronger and greens are harder to read.

Buy Davis Love III at 25.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 12.25 Pts.
Same again, price and tee time dictates that Love is just a bit low here. Yes, he is 5pts and 9pts higher (before spread free offer) than the two above although on the same score but that is an indication of his missed cut last week and the chance of the same this week unless he shoots possibly 73 or better. Of course he should, but he might not, and even if he doesn't there are 40 players ahead of him just now and by his tee time that figure will probably be nearer 50. With all the buys placed today we will re-assess tomorrow morning

Sell Padraig Harrington at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 1, Profit 17.5 Pts.
This is a risky bet as of course if Harrington shoots over par today he is out and we blow two bets. However, with an early tee time and a fairly tight leaderboard we can have a nett one point play on Padraig at 31.5 which after today could be good value. If he just scrapes in to the weekend we will be able to close back to the same stakes on everyone else for no cost so it seems worth the extra risk.
 

Pre Round One Trades: (Summary: A bit of a mixed bag, our only buy has started well but that has been covered by a good start from Rose and Estes. Harrington, Pettersson, and Sluman especially, have a bit to do on Friday to make the weekend. Cabrera unfortunately did not start.)

Sell Carl Pettersson at 36 with Spreadex M/U 48.5, Loss 6.25 Pts
13th and 14th here the last two years, admittedly the 14th being on the sister course but still good results for the big Swede. Carl plays almost exclusively on this tour now and has posted enough good finishes to recommend him here at 36. Seven Top 10's in 04' show he can mix it in this company and this course should suit his style. 

Sell Bob Estes at 35.3 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.35 Pts
Available at 35 everywhere else it is personal choice whether to take the extra 0.3 at Spreadfair. At my forecasted FP 35.3 is a bit better than 35. Estes is a very infuriating player to follow and along with Haas and Verplank is probably the most supported player on the spreads at T/T. His stats suggest he is a far better player than some of his results show but he has performed here well in the past, 7th, 15th and 14th with 2 missed cuts sum him up perfectly. His 05' form on average is a mid 30's FP so we are trading a bit on previous Honda form here and a hope that his Tee Time in the forecasted better weather later in the day will get him off to a good start.

Sell Justin Rose at 37 with Spreadex M/U 15, Profit 11 Pts.
A windy week is anticipated and maybe will appeal to the Europeans who perform well in those conditions. Rose has started slowly this year but it mirrors his 04' results when by the time he got into the Southern swing his results picked up dramatically. 37 is too high given, like all the additional plays advised tonight, he has potentially the best conditions on Thursday. We are of course gambling on the weather forecast but if it turns out as expected there is a fairly large advantage in being late/early rather than the opposite.

Sell Padraig Harrington at 27 with Sporting Index M/U 1, Profit 13 Pts.
This bet offers a serious question, in a market where 50 points is the range of possible results, is Harrington 11 points worse than Toms. I would argue not as Harrington in the US has posted 5 Top 20's from 9 events in 04' and it's Florida where he performs best suggesting 27 is a bit high here. 52nd last week in Doral wasn't a stand out return but he now has some Florida practice behind him and is a fairly confident selection at the price. 

Sell Jeff Sluman at 35 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts
An 80 in the R1 at Phoenix in the worst of the wind has been Slu's only blip on this season. Apart from that he has posted 5 results all under the quote this week and seems a little high at 35. His course record is 59th where another 80 !!! was his score in R3. The fact that these two scores appear in any examination of course or current form may be the reasoning for his quote but other scores suggest he is on form, including a 66 in his last course outing in R4 last Sunday.

Buy Kevin Na at 32 with IG Sport M/U 27.5, Loss 2.25 Pts
This is a set of bets this week where price is everything. In spread betting you may fancy a player to have a good/bad week but his price offered on FP makes you go in a completely different direction. With Na, he has all the credentials to be a big player this week. 4th last year here when less well known, 2nd in Phoenix, 2nd to Ogilvy at Tucson in a play off and 16th at Doral last week suggests he has ticked all the right boxes. We have to look at the bigger picture though and compare Na completely and not just the selected few events and by doing that he should be just a bit higher than 32.

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