Houston Open

Final Summary: A losing week on this tour as Olazabal and Ogilvie played solidly throughout to cost us, but with results in China and the opposition of Kelly and Ogilvy after the cut, we have a winning week. Loss 6 Pts

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Up and down day with Ogilvy falling away to over 50th, Kelly doing similar and justifying the closure, but Ogilvie and Olly are still top 10. We shall see what tomorrow brings but we may need one of Olazabal, Ogilvie or Donald in China to have a bad day, and Ogilvy to stay where he is.)

Buy Jerry Kelly at 34 with IG Sport M/U 47, Profit 6.5 Pts
Having a look at the leaderboard it is arguable that Kelly is now value at 34, not by much but I would hate to lose profits from China from Ogilvie performing well in Houston and also Kelly going backwards. Therefore, I suggest we get out for no loss now and buy two more players who have been priced a bit lower than their true chance.

Buy Geoff Ogilvy at 32 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts
Ogilvy is -3 and players of not that much lesser ability who are -4 are being priced at 34-37 and even Ted Purdy who is -5 is priced 30-33. There is a possibility that it suits IG not to have any sellers of Ogilvy and that is why they have priced him at 29-32, or it could just plainly be that they think he will have a good weekend. Either way, the price is slightly wrong and is value to buy at 32. He has failed to hit half the fairways in each of his two rounds so far and in a 7500 yard long course you do need every help you can get to reach the green, and hitting it into the rough most of the time makes it that bit harder.

Buy Jose Maria Olazabal at 17 with IG Sport M/U 3, Loss 7 Pts
Olazabal had a poor day with his driver but 6 less shots on the green meant he shot 67. Putting as we all know can come and go on a daily basis but poor driving can be harder to rectify. Olly has already thrown in 5 bogeys in his first 36 holes and could easily fall back beyond 17th place if his putter doesn't continue to work for him. All in all though, although I can give a sound reason for why he could fall backwards, price is everything in Spread Betting and at 17 it is in my opinion 3 points too low.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Ogilvie shot low today and is now a likely loser unless he has a poor weekend. Meanwhile, Kelly shot 70 to be roughly where he was yesterday but easily into the weekend.)

Sell Jerry Kelly at 34 with Sporting Index M/U 47, Loss 6.5 Pts
After all prices being about right pre event we now have a couple that are worth a play at. Kelly goes out early today and is sitting at -1, which is a tie for 44th place. With a good round he will ensure qualification for the business end of the event and with a great round will find his way well inside the Top 20 the way the list of scores is currently spread out.

Buy Joe Ogilvie at 22 with IG Sport M/U 6, Loss 8 Pts
Our 2nd bet is a buy with Ogilvie -4 after R1 but with a late tee time today and only 4 shots clear of 71st place, 22 is definitely one of these numbers where the upside is definitely greater than the down.

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