Michelin Championship at Las Vegas

FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -1.95pts

Furyk 2nd
Maruyama 6th
Pettersson 47th

That was disappointing! First, Maruyama was challenging for the tournament when his approach shot to the 16th hole hit the rocks and bounced backwards into the water - he finished one shot outside the places - and then Furyk did everything right to win the event until the last hole when he three-putted to allow the pack to catch him. And the least said about the playoff the better! Certainly didn't expect to be making a loss on this event.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Jim Furyk to win 12/1 e.w. available generally
This was the scene of his first PGA Tour victory in 1995 and he went on to also win in 1998 and 1999 so there can be few doubts about Furyk's compatibility with this event. In his injury-disrupted season last year, he would miss four cuts and manage only one top-20 finish in his last eight starts, but that was in this event (11th). So, even when out of form, he would be competitive in Las Vegas, but that is not a concern this year. Now he ranks 5th in the Money List, won the Western Open in July and was in contention for three rounds last week. Furyk is always short odds for this event and they are fully justified.

Shigeki Maruyama to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Maruyama is making his first start in this event since 2001 and there is one obvious reason: he currently ranks 35th on the Money List, only $52,500 behind Zach Johnson and a place in the Tour Championship. And in this form, there is every reason to expect him to get there. Not only did he push K.J. Choi all the way before finishing 2nd in Greensboro two weeks ago, but he shot 69-67-67 over the last three rounds last week and only one player shot lower over those three rounds. But such late season form should not be a surprise with Maruyama: he three October events last year yielded finishes of 16th, 19th and 2nd, while in 2003, he finished 3rd and 1st in October. In this form, he should certainly beat his 25th finish when he last played in 2001.

Carl Pettersson to finish in the top-five 20/1 @ Centrebet
Pettersson has no chance of making the Tour Championship and for the first seven months of this year, it looked as though he was certain to return to Q-School. But an upturn in form and an 11th place finish in Greensboro two weeks ago has secured his playing privileges for next year. Freed of that anxiety, there should be a further improvement in form and, like Maruyama, it is a late season phenomenon with Pettersson. He played in all five events to end in October last year and finished in the top-10 in four of them, including a 5th place finish in this event. Having already finished 4th in the Deutsche Bank Championship last month against a much stronger field, he has the potential to go close again. On that occasion he did hold the 54-hole lead, so the place-only play may be more prudent.