Nissan Open

Finishing Positions to 0.5 pt Stakes

Final Summary: An event best forgotten, we got out with a 0.5pt loss which after all the hoo-ha I will accept.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Not a great position on this tour either, Durant was worth the small risk but hasn't moved forward but we have lost Ames who may be best watched for now as he doesn't seem to be the player of 04. Our success on this event will rely heavily on the cut line as Haas and Verplank are on it. At least our 2 buys are currently struggling a little.)

Sell Joe Durant at 48 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 1 Pt.
Durant has made every cut so far this year and was 24th here last year. Of course he is available to sell at 48 because he is +4 and three shots off the cut line, I think though, that this price is just a bit too high. He is out first today so has every opportunity with the conditions to post a score and all we need him to do is make the weekend and we then have the option to re-assess his price and position tomorrow morning. Most players quoted at 48-50 after R1 are almost certain to miss the cut, i am not so sure that Durant is.

Sell Scott Verplank at 40 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 5 Pts.
Verplank is another player the wrong side of the cut, but at +2 and also with an early tee time he will be hoping to keep up his cut making record up. Since the 2003 PGA Champs, Scott has missed one cut, last year, at the 84 Lumber. He also shot a R1 73 last time out in Phoenix but still managed to finish 19th. At a combined 6 pt risk, I feel these two plays are value.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Three of these four players are around the cut line but Weir performed well to be -4 from the afternoon starters. If there is an am/pm advantage today then we at least have our sells early and Howell out late)

Sell Stephen Ames at 34 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 8 Pts.
Four very contestable prices from Spreadex and although Sporting Index are still to price up, I would assume their accumulated prices will not better these. Ames is a little slow out of the blocks this year with his 24th in Phoenix arguably his best performance. He was 19th in the Mercedes but then that was a 31 man field. As we have stated previously he has shown better form in the early part of the year in previous seasons and in four visits to Riviera he has made every cut.

Sell Jay Haas at 36 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7 Pts.
Another sell on Haas who regularly gets priced too high. Riviera form is ok, he plays here most years and has only missed one cut, with 12th place in 2000 his best return. Like Ames, a little slow out the blocks this year with 23rd in the Buick his best performance. Hopefully he (and Ames) can rediscover 2004 form and put in their best 05' show yet.

Buy Mike Weir at 24 with Spreadex M/U 41.5, Profit 8.75 Pts.
Everybody loves Michael. With a fast finishing 2nd last week behind Mickelson and having won here for the last two years it was clear for all to see that Weir would be at the top of most peoples short list this week. However, the spread companies know this and react accordingly. They will ensure that anyone wanting to back Weir this week will do so at a poor price. This doesn't mean Weir won't contend and cost us money, he may well do so, but we are trading prices here that are wrong and this price is wrong. Note as well, that for a man with a 1/1 record in two years on this course his 5 year average is 30 !! and his FP average this season over 4 events played is 27.

Buy Charles Howell III at 26.5 (spread free) with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 11.75 Pts.
With the advantage of the "spread free" offer we can trade Howell at 26.5. A good start to 05' for Howell with 3 Top 15's out of 4 but I would happily take 26.5 every week this year on Howell and then in November head off to the sunshine for two months. Last year Howell was 73rd here after finishing 2nd and 6th the previous two years so he has current form and course form to make a good case for support but at 26.5 we will win in the long term, of that i am certain. Whether we do this week is for the next four days to show but at these prices i'd rather be opposing Weir and Howell and supporting Ames and Haas than the reverse.
 

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