PGA Championship

Update after round 3:

Mickelson's poor 3rd round has let everyone back in. Of the original picks Perez and Owen are both within range and so I will put in some hedging lays:

Lay Pat Perez 25pts @3 - unmatched

Lay Pat Perez 30pts @2 - unmatched

Lay Pat Perez 50pts @1.5 - unmatched

Lay Greg Owen 20pts @2.5 - unmatched

Lay Greg Owen 50pts @1.5 - unmatched

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Update after round 2:

Can Tiger mount a challenge after just making it right on the cut line? Unlikely, in fact Mickelson could quite easily put this out of anyone's reach with two decent rounds. I think Mickelson's price is about right and don't see any value in opposing him.

The interesting area now for me is the place market. Is it possible for a player just making the cut to force their way in to the top 5? Of course it is, but Tiger trading at below 7/1 to do so is incredibly skinny odds. Especially when compared to the odds available on some class players around him. There isn't much liquidity at big odds in the Betfair place market, so we'll have to go to the bookies:

Back Stewart Cink to finish in the top five 0.4pts @125/1 at Centrebet

Back JM Olazabal to finish in the top five 0.3pts @150/1 at Centrebet

Back Tim Clark to finish in the top five 0.2pts @250/1 at Centrebet

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Much has been made of the length of this course, however the talk coming from the practise rounds indicates that it may not be quite so important as thought. I believe the best reasoning here is to NOT restrict yourself to only the longest drivers, rather sidestep anyone who is particularly short off the tee. The middle-hitters can certainly still contend.

Another major and another batch of massive prices on Betfair..

Back Pat Perez 0.3pts @700

Distance is certainly not a problem. Neither is talent or current form - he was 5th last time out in the US at the Western Open. The only question mark is temprament, but this is a truely massive price and well worth taking a chance on.

Back Fred Couples 1pt @220

Another massive price and I don't understand why. You don't get the nickname Boom Boom by being short off the tee. In recent times he's had a second at Memorial, 15th at the US Open and was in the tie for 3rd at St Andrews. No bigger than 100/1 at the bookies: this price is just way too big.

Back Brett Quigley 0.2pts @660

Back Tom Lehman 0.4pts @350

Back Brian Davis 0.2pts @620

Back Greg Owen 0.25pts @ 520

Back Woody Austin 0.1pts @940

Back Tim Herron 0.25pts @400

Back Bob Estes 0.2pts @580

Back Arjun Atwal 0.2pts @630

I'll be here all night trying to give individual reasons for this lot. The main reason is the same for each: the price is just too big.