The Players Championship

 
FINAL RESULT: +48.64pts

Profit from Betfair market = 52.25, minus commission of 5% = 49.64, minus 1 pt on the McDowell bet. Amazed Fred had it in him, but couldn't have happened to a nicer guy, as they say!

update:

Doesn't look like there is going to be much time to assess things in between the third and fourth rounds, so sticking these speculative hedging lays for round 4 up now.

LAY Zach Johnson 10pts @4 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Zach Johnson 10pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Fred Funk 5pts @10 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Fred Funk 10pts @5 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Fred Funk 10pts @3 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Jay Haas 4pts @10 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Jay Haas 8pts @5 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Jay Haas 10pts @3 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Scott Verplank 4pts @10 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Scott Verplank 8pts @5 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Scott Verplank 10pts @3 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Graeme McDowell 5pts @4 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Graeme McDowell 10pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched

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update:

Back Ted Purdy 0.15pts @890 at Betfair

I was toying with the idea of backing Ted Purdy here earlier. Although he has done little of note this season, it is the sort of course his game should be suited to. Last season he ranked 3rd on the tour in total driving, 11th in all-around ranking, 23rd in par 4 birdies, 9th in ball-striking, all of which are favoruable on this course. Hoch's withdrawal has freed up a 'berth' so I'll bring Purdy in to replace him!

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update:
The presence of all the big names means there are some very inflated prices in the Betfair market here. While none of the following can really be considered likely winners (although stranger things have happened! - Craig Perks...), the hope is that we may be able to trade at much lower prices should they get in contention. Sorry about the precise staking plan - the idea is to bet to give us at least 100 points 'potential profit' to play with on each player.

Back Jay Haas 0.45pts @290 at Betfair
Back Fred Funk 0.25pts @540 at Betfair
Back Loren Roberts 0.3pts @420 at Betfair
Back Scott Verplank 0.45pts @260 at Betfair
Back Scott Hoch 0.25pts @480 at Betfair - NR
Back Jeff Sluman 0.25pts @480 at Betfair
Back Tom Byrum 0.15pts @930 at Betfair

Reasons: well - not that easy really - by definition they are all long shots! Part of the thinking is that Sawgrass is a unique course - some players love it, some players hate it. This is a tournament where course form is of relatively high importance.
Jay Hass ranks 4 in that category for the field, Hoch 10th, Verplank 16th, Sluman 19th, Funk 24th. Roberts and Byrum don't fair as well but did manage a 10th and 16th respectively last year.
These are big prices and thus we only really need one player to get 'in the mix' to make a decent overall profit.

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Back Zach Johnson 1.5pts @65 at Betfair
Back Tom Lehman 0.75pts @190 at Betfair
Back Graeme McDowell 0.5pts e/w @125/1 at Tote, GolfingGods

I see no reason to desert Zach this week. He has never played here before, but I think the course should be reasonably suited to his game. All the positives from previous weeks still apply.
Lehman had a very good record round here back in his prime, and while he is past his best, he has still contended already against a fairly strong field this season. It's a very big price and hopefully one that can be traded at some point in the week.
Surprised to see G McD at such high odds after playing so well last week - lets not forget he beat all but two of a very strong field by 5 shots. His confidence should sky high and there's no reason he can't go well again here.