The Players Championship

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Final Summary: Profit 43 Pts. Most of the buys fell away in at least one of the last two rounds to ensure they finished as winners for us rather than losers. With the first quarter of the year gone now we have cleared 100pts which is a fairly good return. Hopefully the next period will bring further success.

Round Three Summary: Bjorn WD at the end of R3 so immediately becomes our 4th 50 M/U from the 11 buys. It is long odds on that Jimenez and Baddeley will be 5 and 6 as they performed poorly in R3 shooting 82 and 80 respectively.  Hensby needs to shoot 69 or better in R4 to avoid being the 7th 50 M/U. What this means is that with 4 remaining players high up the leaderboard, we need their accumulated totals to be 16 before we start making a profit IF the aforementioned 3 players do M/U at 50. Every point over 15 would then be a half point's profit to us. 

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: 84 players make the cut so with all our remaining bets Buys, that is a help rather than a hindrance to our situation. 150 points are banked from the 3 players missing the cut with a further 3 outside the Top 50 currently.  A lot will change no doubt over the two days but at the current position we are sitting ok.

Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez at 32 with IG Sport M/U 49, Profit 8.5 Pts.
Currently tied 30th, 32 seems a bit low for Jimenez who for all his European Tour success has never really managed to perform well regularly in the States. In his last 36 events on this tour he has a M/U less than 32 only 6 times and with him currently 40 for FP settling purposes 32 is probably the quote of all issued today most contestable.

Buy Luke Donald at 18 with IG Sport M/U 3, Loss 7.5 Pts
Very impressive round yesterday from Donald to shoot 66. However, with a PM start and a poor record here in the past there are enough doubts to suggest that 18 could look a good price later in the week. This is a trade that I suspect we could lose on more than we would win but the times we would win would bring far greater returns. A 72, 74 and two 76's are Donald's previous scores here and a return to those scores would easily see him fall down the leaderboard as the week goes on. We may though have a Donald who has the experience now to go on and succeed here but the price is skewed towards the 2nd option just a little too much.

Buy Thomas Bjorn at 32 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts. (Bjorn WD before R4)
This is a play on price and where the player currently stands in the competition. Bjorn has fair form here, 3 times he has finished 22nd in 4 attempts and his form in Europe this year has been ok. But, with such a depth of quality in the field and most of the bigger names likely to be here for 4 days, the price, like the other European quotes, is low.

Buy Sergio Garcia at 17 with Spreadex M/U 35.5, Profit 9.25 Pts
Garcia this season has put in rounds of 70+ in 11 of his 17 rounds played so far and it seems that he has enough poor holes to just stop him from contending at the top end of the leaderboard. He could easily kick on this morning and go into the lead in this event but like all our trades the price is arguable as it assumes he will more than the chance implies.

Sell Davis Love at 37 with Spreadex M/U 9.5, Profit 13.75 Pts
Closing one of the original trades as with an early tee time I feel that Love's true price is probably mid 30's so value suggests we close out and take a few points.

Buy Lee Westwood at 18 with Sporting Index M/U 22.5, Profit 2.25 Pts
Tied 2nd after an impressive 65 yesterday, Westwood, like Sergio, has an early tee time today and could kick on but there have been enough false dawns with Lee in the last 18 months to make any buy in the teens with 54 holes to go a fairly confident trade. We have 2 full days (weather permitting) to look at each trade we have made and see if its value to get out of.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: A fair day, with Ogilvy, the only supported player, the only real disappointment. Our position just now is quite strong so it allows us to hopefully trade some good prices tomorrow without being behind the 8 ball the way we have been recently after R1)

Buy Peter Lonard at 40 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 4.75 Pts
Lonard in his last 8 rounds has thrown in a 76 and two 78's. At Sawgrass his full record is 56th and MC with two 80's in the 6 rounds played. There is no room for error here and if he can shoot 78 in easier courses than this then he would require a big improvement in his game to better 40th place this week. Others go 39-42 and I was dithering over putting that price up even with the limited profit available but at 40 on the exchange it is definitely a bet.

Buy Davis Love III at 33 with Spreadex M/U 9.5, Loss 12.75 Pts
Davis has had an indifferent season. Two top 20's in the celebrity events have been coupled with missed cuts at Doral and a down the field 70th at the Honda. His Sawgrass record revolves round 2003 when a last round 64, arguably one of the great last rounds of recent times, won him this event but bar that year his record is suspect. In 8 visits his FP average is around 37 and you could argue that Davis's best days are behind him. He certainly hasn't averaged the Top10's in the last 18 months that he has over the previous 10 years or so. At 33, in such a high quality field, Love is value and the 34-37 offered by Sporting is nearer the mark.

Buy Aaron Baddeley at 37 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 6.5 Pts
Badds (or Dressed !) has been a Top 10 fixture now for some weeks and normally you would wait until he showed signs of falling back into his normal playing level before suggesting a buy at 37. However, we have all the benefits already stated about field quality, but we also have the fact that Badds' Top 10 record is mostly down to the fact that he is one of the games' great putters. In ball striking which is a stat measured by the Tour for players ability on total driving and greens in regulation, Baddeley sits 165th out of 185 measured players. In GIR itself he is 158 in the list and those figures in a year where he hits Top 10's regularly. His ability to putt his way out of trouble when he gets into it is less helpful here and on a course where position is everything Baddeley just doesn't have the game for the course. In his previous visit here he shot 74/81 to miss the cut by some way. If he beats 37th place this week then he has performed at a level way above what his stats for the year show he can achieve on a difficult course.

Buy Fredrik Jacobson at 42 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 4 Pts
With Freddie it is the same as Badds, he just doesn't have the game for this course (153rd and 145th on the above noted stats). Although we are paying 5 more points for the privilege of trading him we have the advantage that there isn't that nagging doubt of good form leading up to the week as this year Freddie has been very poor indeed. After a fair start with two Top 20s in the Buick and Hope, Freddie was 77th in Phoenix, missed the cut in Riviera, lost in R1 in the WGC and missed a further cut in the Honda. At Ponte Vedra he has a 73/78 last year as his only score, missing the cut like Baddeley.

Buy Loren Roberts at 39 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 5.5 Pts
This is the riskiest of the 6 buys so far. Fairly good form this year with Top 20's in Hawaii, California and last week in Orlando, but for a player a year older and in Champions Tour age range Roberts certainly hasn't done a great deal here. 3rd in 97 is the best of a rather poor set of results which shows an average FP of well into the 40's. 

Buy Mark Hensby at 39 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 6.5 Pts
Reasoning for Hensby is a bit like the reasoning for Freddie and Badds, although his stats are not quite as poor as those two, 39 is still a little on the low side. They say you need to experience this course and all its intricate problems and it surely is a hindrance to Hensby that this is his first visit. His 2005 form shows two missed cuts and two Top 25's in four strokeplay events but his stats that I believe matter on this course, the aforementioned Striking and GIR see him sit 117th and 163rd. There are too many negatives to ignore a price in the 30s for this player when some players quoted in the 40s probably have a better chance of success.  

Buy Joe Ogilvie at 36 with IG Sport M/U 35.5, Loss 0.25 Pts
Another player like Baddeley who has used his putting ability to earn him more money this year than he may have expected to have made by this stage in the season. 6 Top 20's in 9 starts this year is impressive stuff but this is Sawgrass and a completely different course to what he has been used to so far. An 80 in R2 last year put paid to any chance of a cheque and at 36 IG have dangled a carrot to sellers who see his 2005 record and the chance of double money if he gets a win here. It is noticeable IG are lowest on Joe and I would put it down to that very reason in that he will get a lot of sell support this week based purely on current form.

Sell Geoff Ogilvy at 35 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts
Our first sell, and in an event where selling players is a very risky venture, you have to be offered a good price and this is a good price. Ogilvy prefers events where scoring is harder, and he has a preference for the greens of Florida which are shown by results of 8 Top 25's in 10 Florida events. At Sawgrass his record is 21/16 after a M/C on his first visit in 02. He is arguably a better player now in 05 with his win behind him so 35 seems 3 pts or so too high.

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