Shaker decided to step down from the position of Betfair Tipster at the end of 2004. He put in a lot of work to establish the Betfair section at Tour-Tips and he will be missed. However, Chris has agreed to take on the mantle for 2005 and I'm sure you'll give him a warm welcome. Stanley

Sony Open

BUICK INVITATIONAL PICKS

Last week was focussed heavily on pre-tournament trading, this week I'll continue the Betfair techniques 'refresher course' with some 'back and lay' picks. The idea here is to back a player at big odds before the tournament in the hope to lay off to secure a profit if they go shorter during the tournament.

BACK Tom Lehman 2pts @80 at Betfair -- matched
BACK Jay Haas 2pts @100 at Betfair -- matched
BACK Stephen Ames 2pts @75 at Betfair -- matched

The reasons are very similar for all three. They are all very consistent players, they all have reasonable course form: Lehman 4 top 25s from last 5 starts here, Haas 3 top 25s in last 3, Ames no missed cuts in all 4 starts, and most important of all I believe they are all at far too big a price!

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SONY OPEN PICKS


FINAL RESULT:
Only returns from Cink T5 - 4.75pts (after betfair lay deducted)
Total staked was 7pts, plus we lost 0.23pts in commisson on the betfair outright market.
FINAL TOTAL: - 2.48pts

It looked like it could go very well going in to the weekend - was hopefull at least one of Lehman or Rose would manage a place. Unfortunately Rose, not for the first time, wilted over the final two rounds and Lehman's challenge was over when he failed to pick up any shots on the 'easy' 9th and 10th holes in the final round. Thankfully a good final round from Cink rescued something from the week.

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Update:
Just after writing that I realised I'd got my sums wrongs - oops! The lays on Rose were for too many points - they should be 5 and 10 as shown below now.
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Update after round 2:
Looking promising with a few picks in the mix for the weekend.

One aspect of Betfair is that less 'well known' players who get in to contention can get overlooked and offered at very big odds. a good example of that this week is Andrew Magee. He and Azinger are both 3 off the lead yet Magee is more than double the odds. I wouldn't say he's the most likely of winners, but his chances are much better than the odds suggest and he could prove a useful trade, so will have a small back of him and hope Mr Magee doesn't turn in to Mr Magoo over the weekend...

Back Andrew Magee 0.5pts @75 at Betfair -- matched

Laying off, or hedging is an area where the debate still rages on. I don't know if there is one correct way to do it. This week I will go for the pre-set lay approach on our players who have made it in to possible contention so that we will at least get some returns if one of the players goes close and blows it.

LAY Tom Lehman 30pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Tom Lehman 60pts @1.5 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Justin Rose 5pts @2 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Justin Rose 10pts @1.5 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Andrew Magee 5pts @3 at Betfair -- unmatched
LAY Andrew Magee 10pts @1.5 at Betfair -- unmatched
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Update:
Unfortunately it looks as though the Chad Campbell trade will not go as planned. Ladbrokes' price was such a standout and lasted so long that I can't help but feel that there were a lot of people with the same idea. There is now an awful lot of money wanting to be layed at 75. The golden rule with a bet placed as a trade is to trade it out as intended, no matter whether it's for a profit or for a loss. In the long run we will get a lot more right than we get wrong, but by letting one just 'run' when it doesn't go to plan, all that good work can easily be undone. In this case we can get out at break even (in fact a very small loss after commission), so I am moving the lay up to 80. If you are made of sterner stuff then you could try braving it out till Thursday and hoping the price comes in - but there is a lot of money there to be eaten up and there may well not be the liquidity (or the interest in Campbell) to do it.
It's not all bad news though - by my reckoning the 80's on Campbell to win was perhaps only very marginal value - by trading the win part back we do still keep the place part at 20/1 which is of much more solid value in my opinion and was the main thing that attracted me to the bet in the first place.

The lay on Lehman in the top 5 market has now been matched and I don't envisage any further pre-tournament plays. Net outlay so far is 6.5pts: split as 1.5 on Lehman, 1 on Triplett, 1 on Campbell and 0.5 each on Van Pelt, Cink, Parnevick, Rose, Ogilvy and Roberts.

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update:
Ladbrokes have now cut Campbell to 50's, which is his best price across the board, so quite hopefull that the lay at 65 will be taken before Thursday. Also reckon we'll see some strong support for Lehman during the week, so the lay on him in the top 5 market should be matched as well.

Obviously this week I have re-introduced the concept of pre-tournament trades, as started by Shaker last season. I don't really forsee it being possible to do this (on this scale anyway) on a regular weekly basis - a lot of the prices are very short lived for one thing, and liquidity on Betfair is always an issue when you are looking to get lays taken.
When trading prices between bookies and Betfair, commission must not be forgotten about. Fortunately I have a spreadsheet which will work out all that for us (I will base it on a 5% level of commission) when working out a final weekly return.
To illustrate the advantage you can obtain from pre-tournament trades, here are the relevant positions we now have on the outright market this week(assuming the Campbell lay is taken):

free bet on Campbell to win 16pts
0.5pts on Lehman to win 132pts : effective odds of 263/1!
free bet on Cink to win 12pts
free bet on Van Pelt to win 25.5pts

Of course, taking commission in to account, these aren't actually 'free' bets, but by my reckoning the commission in all of these trades is going to cost a maximum of 0.25 pts if none of the bets come off (if one does come off then there will be no commission as we will be making a loss in terms of just the betfair market).

Some reasons for the picks this week: Tom Lehman really found his form again towards the end of last season - but for some reason the bookies (or some of them) seem to have forgotten that! He has a good record in this tournament, although not so much in the past couple of years - but that co-incided with a general dip in his form in that period, so isn't really a worry. Triplett is a very consistent player and as such is massively overpriced here. Excellent value on the place odds - unfortunately he does tend to wobble a bit when in contention so I may look to lay off some of the win part should the opportunity arise. Bo Van Pelt showed enough last season to suggest he's one to watch this term - regularly went off at odds of around 50/1 in comparable fields last year, so 200/1 was simply too big to ignore. Cink was simply too big a price and a perfect opportunity for a trade - I think the 33/1 was an ok value price (particularly the place part), but not outstanding, so will happily lay off the win part for a free bet and some of the place part for an enhanced odds bet. Parnevick could be a bit of a dark horse here - he has a bit of course form and showed he can get off the blocks quickly with a good start to last season. For Roberts, Rose and Ogilvy I just simply feel that they are better players than those prices suggest - and may just prove useful trading opportunities during the week.
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update:
Going to cast a wide net on some high priced players, all of whom I believe are at value prices:
Back Jesper Parnevick 0.25pts e/w @125/1 at GolfingGods
Back Loren Roberts 0.25pts e/w @125/1 SkyBet,SportingOdds,GolfingGods
Back Justin Rose 0.25pts e/w @150/1 GolfingGods
Back Geoff Ogilvy 0.25pts e/w @125/1 at Bet365


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update:
The big prices just keep on coming!
Back Stewart Cink 2pts e/w @33/1 at SkyBet
LAY Stewart Cink 2pts @28 at Betfair -- matched
LAY Stewart Cink 1.5pts @6 in Top 5 finish market at Betfair --matched
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update:
another monster price:
Back Bo Van Pelt 0.5pts e/w @200/1 at William Hill
another pre-tournament trade:
LAY Bo Van Pelt 0.5pts @150 at Betfair -- matched
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Some early plays on three big prices:
Back Chad Campbell 1pt e/w @80/1 at Ladbrokes
LAY Chad Campbell 1pt@80 on Betfair -- matched

Back Tom Lehman 2pts e/w @125/1 at GolfingGods
LAY Tom Lehman 1.5pts@80 on Betfair -- matched
LAY Tom Lehman 1pt @15 in Top 5 finish market at Betfair --matched

Back Kirk Triplett 0.5pts e/w @150/1 at GolfingGods