Sony Open

Final Summary: A poor Sunday from Sabbatini (3 double Bogeys) ate into potential profits but they were covered partly by a run of 6 birdies in 8 holes from Roberts, but all in all a very average week. Profit = 3.3 Pts.

Round Four: No Bets R4, nothing appeals and quite happy with the current state of play.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Much better situation now. Waldorf is going to M/U at 50 so closing was a good move. Sabbatini hit one of the best rounds of the day to get into the Top 20 and Goosen just seems to be wishing it was Sunday night and is a couple of strokes out of the Top 50. Roberts is steady and will hopefully contribute a few points to the pot. Lehman is still top 10 but hopefully won't be a big loss, if at all.)

Buy Retief Goosen FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 8.5 Pts
Goosen just made the cut overnight and is on +2 (T60) along with 19 others. He is only here due to a last hole birdie after he had shipped 4 shots in the previous holes in his back 9. A 9 on the par 4 1st on Thursday got him off to a bad start and he has had small bursts of birdies both days which have seen him reach the weekend. However, with 78 players in the weekend it is a buyers market now and 33 just seems to give Retief just a little too much respect at the current scores.

Buy Duffy Waldorf FP for 0.5 pts at 42 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 4 Pts
Buy Justin Rose FP for 0.5 pts at 11 with Spreadex M/U 23.5, Profit 6.25 Pts
Closing out two bets here to cope with the current situation. This gets us level currently on all completed bets with 5 bets running (before any subsequent plays). Normally we would cut one bet and take a new bet on the reverse bet but Rose is just a buy at 11 and there is no real upside in backing anyone at 42 in a 50 ceiling bet.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Only two gone, but with 78 players making the weekend and two of ours equal last we need a big effort now to take anything from the bets already placed. Hopefully any bets flagged today will help that cause.)

Sell Rory Sabbatini FP for 0.5 pts at 40 with IG Sport M/U 44, Loss 2 Pts
Playing up Rory again. He is Tied 71st at +2 so a fair round today will see him make the weekend. With scoring as it was yesterday a low round would see him easily into the Top 20 and at a nett price now of 37.75 to sell we still have a value bet. Unfortunately our success or failure this week is heavily reliant on who makes the cut tonight from the bets we have placed. If somehow we can get all 6 sells in we are in a strong position. If we lose 2+ then we are then relying on Rose etc to have a big week.

Buy Tom Lehman FP for 0.5 pts at 22 with IG Sport M/U 10.5, Loss 5.75 Pts
A lot of shrewd judges are bullish about the chances of Lehman this week and a first round 67 sees him tied for 5th. This however, as usual, is a play on price. 22 is too short given we have 54 holes to go and Lehman is arguably in the home straight of his PGA Tour career. In this company i would pitch him around the 24/25 mark which for a buy is an acceptable difference. An example of this price being short is shown in the price of players on the same score. Chad Campbell is priced at 22/25 and Kaye, 2nd last week, 23/26 with a rival firm.

Sell Geoff Ogilvy FP for 0.5 pts at 44 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 3 Pts
Speculative play here on Ogilvy. After a R1 73 he finds himself two shots off the current cut line but with 70 players on +1 or better it could move towards Ogilvy easily at the start of play. Any sort of score around par should see Ogilvy make the weekend so at a risk of 3 pts we should play and then see what position and price we have tomorrow if successful.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Not the best of starts to the week although at one point the three early starters, Triplett, Waldorf and Sabbatini, were detached from the cut line but they fought their way back to have a fair shot at surviving in R2. Rose is -3 and hopefully will cover any of those who do fail today.)

Sell Kirk Triplett FP for 0.5 pts at 35.9 with Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.05 Pts
Triplett is currently trading at 33-36 with IG Sport so to get inside the buy price at a fraction to sell is worth taking early before the final two firms price this event. Triplett didn't win last year so this is his opening event of the year. In 04' he played 24 times, missing 5 cuts but hitting a 50% strike rate in Top 20 placings. On those figures alone 35.9 is high when there is no recent current form to go on.  As far as I can gather this is Triplett's first visit to this tournament as he did not stay on from the Mercedes last year or in 01' even although he played well in both. This is a slight worry as these courses can need a bit of experience but the price is too high to ignore.

Sell Duffy Waldorf FP for 0.5 pts at 38 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 6 Pts
Duffy is another player making his seasonal bow. Unlike Kirk Triplett though, he has played here most years in the past. With five trips since 1999, he averages just over 30 on FP and would be more worthy of a quote in the mid 30's in this company. His 2004 record reads, Played 25, 7 Missed Cuts, 10 Top 20's, which is not unlike Triplett's and reinforces the view that 38 is a couple of points too high.

Sell Rory Sabbatini FP for 0.5 pts at 35.5 with Spreadfair M/U 44, Loss 4.25 Pts
Usually you will look for a player with good current and course form when looking to support someone, here we have a player with no current form (like everyone else) but with a terrible course record. He withdrew last year after an opening 78 and has 3 cuts as well. There is however reasons for his choice. His 04' record was his best yet, with 13 Top 25 finishes in 25 events. A drop in 2004 seasonal scoring average of 37 places from 70th to 33rd confirms his improvement.

Sell Justin Rose FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with IG Sport M/U 22.5, Profit 6.25 Pts
The PGA Tour has never had so much British interest with Davis, Owen and Price qualifying through Q-School and Poulter and Harrington declaring an interest to spend more time there as well. Rose, though, has played a full year now playing 21 times opposed to only 5 visits back home. In those 21 he had 10 Top 25's but missed 5 cuts from the other 6. With those figures 35 in an average event is a bit higher than he maybe should be.  
(35.6 currently at Spreadfair)

Sell Loren Roberts FP for 0.5 pts at 36.3 with Spreadfair M/U 22.5, Profit 6.6 Pts
Final bet before they tee off and it is on the "Boss of the Moss". Roberts is months away from being old enough to play on the Senior Tour, but his results from 2004 compare favourably with much younger members. His Top 25 record is 11 from 21 which is excellent but it is possibly his "make the cut" % which is best of all, only 3 missed cuts equates to a 86% cut record and when selling FP quotes you like to get a run for your money thru the weekend.

Note: As prices change all the time in Spread Betting due to supply and demand I would suggest that you take no more than a 1.5 difference in the price advised at whatever firm. After that the price does not become value (unless I believe the price is badly out of line, which I will advise when appropriate). If a price has shifted by this amount, put and order in at Spreadfair and let it sit until tee-off. It may possibly get matched in that time.