St. Jude Classic

FINAL RESULT: 1-1; +24.75pts

Leonard 1st
Jacobson 6th
Van Pelt dns

With an eight-shot lead heading into the final round, this was going to be the second stress-less win in a row on this Tour, but Toms and Leonard certainly made it rather unsettling towards the end, but it's the result that counts! A very good overall, but still feel that a few were left out there ... Jacobson had been 2nd to Leonard after 36 holes and in the end he finished 6th. Four events covered this week and in three of them, a selection finished finished one shot out of a place finish. That took a little of the gloss off this week.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Justin Leonard to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Teamed up with Dallas trainer Bob MacDonald last October, he has built up a considerable amount of muscle from powerlifting and it reaped early rewards with victory at the Bob Hope Classic at the start of the year. He showed good form last week in the Colonial where he used his extra strength to average over 300 yards on his drives and that should help on the renovated and lengthened TPC at Southwind. He has clearly focussed on his game this year and with finishes of 9th, 5th and 4th in three of his last four visits, he could be the one to take advantage of a very wide-open event.

Fredrik Jacobson to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Bet365, Ladbrokes and BlueSq
Wouldn't have looked at Freddy a week ago, so bad was his form, but a strong performance at Colonial where he a feature in the top-10 until a poor last nine holes has put him back on the radar ... on this course, at least. Two appearances and two top-5 finishes do not tell the full story. His 3rd place finish in 2003 was in only his 3rd PGA Tour start, while his 5th place finish last year was his first start after taking time away from the Tour after the premature birth of his daughter and there was clearly some rustiness in his game as he was in 87th position after the 1st round and only made the cut by a single shot. The renovations to the course and particularly the changing of the greens from Bent to Bermuda grass does not help a course form argument, but the odds still justify the play.

Bo Van Pelt to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetFred  * UPDATE: Van Pelt is a non-runner *
He was 100/1 last week against a very much stronger field and really should be no more than 50/1 against this one. He is future Tour winner and certainly within the next two years at that and is worth supporting again after he threatened to finish in the top-5 for much of last week, before galling short. His course form figures of two missed cuts mean very little as the last one was three years ago and he is far better player now, plus Tennessee has been the scene of good performances from Van Pelt on the Nationwide Tour. No need to play conservative with the place-only play this week.