Chrysler Classic of Tucson

Finishing Positions (0.5 pt stakes)

Loss 17.35 Pts. From a great position on Friday morning we find ourselves losing heavily with the one in running play softening the blow a little. On Friday we could have closed Baddeley for a 4.75pt profit but as stated below he needed a 66 to get into the weekend so I felt closing was giving 1.5 pts away. It means though we have amassed roughly 50 pts from the first two months of the year which isn't too bad considering the Euro Tour hasn't been in Europe yet and the US Tour has had a mix of multi course and celebrity infested events. As of next week the Euro tour gets a little nearer home albeit not quite Europe but it is not a co-sanctioned event like all so far. Also the US tour hits Florida and stays there all of March so form may hold up a little better.

Round Three: No trades today, no sells appeal and buys are risky as we have the minimum no. of qualifiers for the weekend, 70, so its not as easy for one player to fall rapidly down the leaderboard. We are therefore relying in Baddeley and Franco not to perform.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Very poor day, Baddeley needed to shoot 66 just to get into the weekend and shot 64. Baird only needed to break par and didn't and Coceres was never really in this event at all. Only our Franco play showed any promise. We now have two sells gone for 15 points and need Franco/Baddeley to stay static or go backwards over the weekend to produce any sort of profit.)

Buy Carlos Franco at 20 with Spreadex M/U 36, Profit 8 pts
Franco shot 65 R1 and is tied 8th, he has an afternoon tee time and may have to shoot 68 or lower to maintain his position. His event form is good with two top 10's but there is no getting away from the fact his current form is poor. Last at the Mercedes where there is no cut was followed by two events with a cut in which he did not manage to get past. Of course he has shot 65 here Thursday suggesting a return to form but with 54 holes to go on a course that gives up low scores I am happy to take 20 and then examine the position after each round.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: 2 outa 3 aint bad was the song and that's how it went last night with Coceres virtually gone but Baird at -4 and Baddeley struggling meaning we are in a fairly good position at the moment)

Sell Briny Baird at 35.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.45 pts
Baird is a bit of an enigma, when you study his stats he should produce better results than he does. In 04' though he would have covered this quote 12 times from his 31 starts so with a poorer field and a 7.5pt max loss, 35.1 seems just a little high and is worthy of interest.

Sell Jose Coceres at 35.2 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.4 pts
Quite a high price for Coceres at the exchange, as the 33-36 at Sporting is probably nearer the mark. His 04' record shows 5 top 20's and a follow up Top 20 in 05 with a 13th place in the reduced Nissan last weekend.

Buy Aaron Baddeley at 28 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 7, Loss 10.5 pts
This is an event for players not good enough to be in the Matchplay so it opens it up for lesser types to get that breakthrough win. However, it is also a week when you see 16/1 and FP quotes of 28 for the 207th best player in the world at current rankings. I have never quite got the continual over-rating of Baddeley from the media and the books, and I am sure when his 100 odd opponents line up this week they won't be seeing him as the obvious danger. He does have arguments for him of course, 7th after R2 last week, 2nd here last year but lets list his full 2004 record:- Events - 27, Top 10's - 1 (here), Top 25's - 3 (incl the Tucson), Missed Cuts - 11.

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