U.S. Open

Final Result: 0 - 12, -10.2pts

Wow! Who would have thought Goosen would go and do that?! Just goes to show how unpredictable this game is. Well done to Cambo, deserved it fully, but I don't think I'd ever have picked someone with such a poor record in the US to win this one.

Update after round 3:

I think Goosen has this more or less sown up now. He can afford to shoot a 73 today and that will probably be good enough. It is a very punishing course and there is danger on every hole, but Goosen has shown this week and in the past that he has the ideal game and temprement to close this out now with out any fuss. Having said all that, I'm not really prepared to back him at the odds  available, but certainly wouldn't oppose him either.

In the unlikely event that he doesn open the door for others, it is only sensible to have some hedges up for the two picks left in possible striking distance.

Lay Arron Oberholser 5pts @5 at Betfair

Lay Arron Oberholser 10pts @3 at Betfair

Lay Arron Oberholser 10pts @2 at Betfair

Lay Corey Pavin 5pts @5 at Betfair

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Update:

Back Tom Lehman 0.5pts @200 at Betfair

Back Tom Lehman to finish in the top ten 0.75pts @11/1 at Paddy Power

Sticking with Lehman despite 2 missed cuts in a row. He has still been striking the ball well, hitting 82% of fairways and 72% of greens last week. Back in his prime he was always a contender in US Opens, recording 3 top fives in a row between '96 and '98. I still think that he is not a spent force just yet and he could well just pop up again in another big event like he did at Sawgrass.

Back Bart Bryant 0.5pts e/w @175/1 at Boylesports (6 places)

Normally once a player chalks up a big win they are cut to unbackable odds for months, but these are still very big odds for someone as consistent as Bryant - and with the ball striking game to hopefully steer clear of much of the trouble here. His confidence should be sky high after his win at Memorial - he said this season was about justifying himself, well he's done that now and the assured manner of his victory at Muirfield Village indicates that he won't crumble should he find himself conending here.

Back Corey Pavin to finish in the top five 0.3pts @80/1 at Skybet

Back Ryuji Imada to finish in the top five 0.75pts @66/1 at Skybet

5th place last week (and ranked 4th in the field for scrambling) was his best finish so far of a very promising rookie season. He has played in a US Open before, at Pebble Beach in 2000, so hopefully the occassion won't over-awe him and he'll be approaching this with the attitude that he can compete.

Back Jay Haas 0.2pts @340 at Betfair

Back Jay Hass to finish in the top ten 0.5pts @16/1 at Paddy Power

Not as good a season as last year so far for Haas, but he still remains a very solid player, and hasn't missed a cut on this tour this season. Has a very good US Open record with 4 top 20s in his last 6, including a top 10 last year at Shinnecock.

Back Tom Pernice 0.2pts @620 at Betfair

Back Arron Oberholser 0.2pts @570 at Betfair

Back Carl Pettersson 0.2pts @680 at Betfair

Not any real special reasons to fancy these two, but these are massive prices on players who are certainly not no-hopers. These look excellent candidates for 'back and lay' trades.

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A major championship usually means we see a very liquid betfair market and as weight of money pushes the prices on the favourites and 'names' down there are often some very juicy prices available on outsiders. Hopefully will be able to grab some later, but for now a couple of real standout bookie prices which I don't think will be bettered on betfair.

Back Scott Verplank 1pt e/w @100/1 at William Hill

Reknowned for his accurate driving and is always high up in the GIR rankings, he is also often under-rated as a putter: he ranks 13th on tour for putting average this season. If the US Open is a test of every aspect of a player's game, then Verplank isn't to be found wanting in many areas: shown by his ranking of 14th in the all-around category. Five top 15 finishes in his last seven events, and a not out the top 35 in the other two shows that he is in great form - missing the Booz Allan last week is probably not a bad thing at all, as by all accounts the set up here means this course will play very differently. When the US Open was last held here in '99 Verplank finshed a respectable 17th, and in all his seven US Open he has only ever missed the cut once. 100/1 is far too big a price here.

Back Nick O'Hern 0.75pts e/w @150/1 at Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)  - also available at SportingOdds but only 5 places.

Dave Pelz has been helping Phil Mickelson with his short game preparations around Pinehurst in recent weeks and has stated that, with the greens being hard to hold, the winner here will likely be who scrambles the best. Which leads me to O'Hern. Ranked 1st in the field for scrambling in each of his last two US events - the Heritage and Memorial. Add to that the fact that he hasn't ranked outside the top 10 for driving accuracy in any event this season - including a best in the field at the Masters, and that he is regularly high up in the GIR rankings and we again have a player with the all round game to cope with the stiffest of tests that the US Open always is. Recent form is also superb, with a 9th and 6th in his last two events in the US, sandwiching a 5th and 3rd in strong fields in Europe. He certainly isn't a prolific winner, but this a very very good e/w bet.