Wachovia Championship

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Summary: Too many losers on the week contributed to a negative result. However, with Harrington and Glover finishing as 50 M/U's the loss wasn't too high. Coupled with the Euro event though it has been a profitable week. Loss 7.15 pts

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: It all comes down to R4 to decide if we make a profit or not. The fact all our trades are buys is to our advantage but it will be a lot easier if at least 2 preferably 3 of our players fall away to 50 M/U's.)

Buy Adam Scott at 25 with IG Sport M/U 18.5, Loss 3.75 Pts

Buy Rod Pampling at 25 with IG Sport M/U 30, Profit 2.5 Pts

Buy Jay Haas at 39 with IG Sport M/U 38, Loss 0.5 Pts

Buy Charles Howell at 39 with IG Sport M/U 24.5, Loss 7.25 Pts
Same reasoning as yesterday, prices that are a little low and with a fairly large upside on the first two and a lot of effort needed by the latter two to clear the quote, all 4 prices are value. Scoring this week has been particularly hard, borne out by a +4 cut line and in those cases buying can be better value than selling.

Buy Greg Owen at 19 with Sporting Index M/U 7.5, Loss 5.75 Pts
Final bet on Owen who is priced at 18-21 elsewhere and seems to be good value at Sporting Index's offer. It leaves us with a lot of interest this week with only one player already gone but all the prices are good value and with a little bit of luck we will do ok. 

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Glover eventually did MC although we have to treat it as a closed bet and have no interest on his further participation as we are only trading prices, not taking a view on the player himself. Of the others, Harrington and Perry struggled in the conditions where scoring was akin to a US Open. Garcia still leads but at 12 that isn't a major problem yet and finally, Mickelson stayed static, so we will re-assess today where we stand.)

Sell Lucas Glover at 44 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 3 Pts
Although we look to have a really good position on Glover after R1 the current state of the leaderboard suggests that he could get into the weekend with little more than an average round today and probability suggests getting out at 44 would probably be a good move. There are a few buys that are value for the exact same reason of the compact leaderboard so we will close this bet for a few points and hope that the following trades increase that profit.

Buy Phil Mickelson at 16 with Sporting Index M/U 7.5, Loss 4.25 Pts

Buy Sergio Garcia at 12 with Sporting Index M/U 2.5, Loss 4.75 Pts

Buy Kenny Perry at 17 with IG Sport M/U 13, Loss 2 Pts

Buy Padraig Harrington 23 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 13.5 Pts
All 4 of these plays are based on the price being set to try and attract sellers who will have seen Garcia and Perry start well and the others averagely but with an expectation that they will have a better R2. The probability of this happening though is slightly less than the price offered. The leaderboard currently sees 68 players between Perry in equal 2nd and those who are Tied 51st only five shots behind. With that in mind it may pay to play these 4 "name" players and see where we stand after R2.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Lucas Glover at 33 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 8.1 Pts
33 is available to good money at Spreadfair and also at the main Cantor Sports office which I have been made aware of after putting up the initial advice. Sporting go 33-36 and that is nearer the price I would pitch him at. I believe that although he has had a great run this season and cost us money last week (who didn't) he should be played again at the price. As well as 5 Top 10's this year Glover has chucked in 4 50 M/U's in that time so its either success or failure with Glover this year, there seems no in-between.