Summary: Bets 5, Wins 3, Losses 2, Profit 15 Pts. A good week on this tour absorbs some of the losses elsewhere.

Pre Round Two Trades

Sell Arron Oberholser over Jay Williamson 18H MB at 9 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 4 Pts
Decided to play on this one again. For long periods yesterday, these two swapped the lead only for Oberholser to pull away late on with three birdies from 15-17. This was a case of a good score from the favourite rather than a poor performance by the "dog" so it is not as if we are trying to recoup losses with a player who has played poorly. R2 stats aren't as positive for Williamson having only won 3 of 10 but the average M/U is still less than the price offered today.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Jesper Parnevik FP at 32 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts. M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts
Parnevik is playing now for the 5th week in a row and his results in that time have been solid with four made cuts and two high finishes. Jesper’s course average over the last 5 years sit at 4 points higher than his quote this week even although he has two Top 15’s in that time. The fact that the AT&T now sits at the end of a 5 week run of events that he usually takes part in may take its toll, his two good finishes happened when it was played before the Buick Invtl. Against him and others this week is the biggest field of the year, 180, and a cut set at 60 to allow the best performing amateurs to play on Sunday.

Sell Jesper Parnevik over Paul Stankowski 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.25 Pts
Four Top 25’s in 9 events makes this one of Stankowski’s better events of the year. Of course Parnevik is favourite here but just like in the other matches we are betting on the fact that the firms have over estimated the favourites’ chance. These two players only played in two events together last year as Stankowski missed most of the year through a wrist injury and although Parnevik wins 2-0, Paul won both R1’s. Stankowski came back to the tour last week with a creditable finish in Phoenix of making the cut and is allowed 14 events this year to try and obtain enough cash to retain his card.

Sell Arron Oberholser over Jay Williamson 18H MB at 9 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 3.25 Pts
Oberholser is a fairly low price on the outrights and that has transferred to his spread price here where, although he should win, he is way over priced at 9-12 to beat Williamson. Head to head betting in 2005 sees Oberholser lead 7-4 but trail 3-6 with 2 ties on R1 alone. The average M/U in those 11 matches is –2.

Sell Rory Sabbatini over Mark Brooks 18H MB at 12 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -16, Profit 7 Pts
Sabbatini has missed 3 AT&T cuts and finished Top 15 in the other three so its hit and miss with him here against Brooks who is by far the lesser player but still seems value at 12. Head to heads here sees Sabbatini lead 12-5 in R1 matches but the average M/U of those 17 matches is 10 and that is affected by Brooks putting in a lot of big scores in that sample. To justify the selection though, 76 is the worst score Brooks has shot round here in 22 rounds here since 2000. As it is a borderline bet though given Brooks’ habit of throwing in the odd big one, I wouldn’t take less than 12.