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FINAL RESULT Cink (mc) was beaten by Allenby Verplank beat Appleby by 8 Chopra beat Poulter (mc) Perez tied with Watson - void Rose beat Immelman (mc) Els was beaten by Woods by 5 Singh beat Woods by 5 Bets: 7 Wins: 4 Losses: 2 Profit/Loss = +4.44 pts Matchup bets: (Total Stake: 2pts) Stewart Cink to beat Robert Allenby +104 @ Pinnacle Cink is the classier player here irrespective of whether you look at money won, average FP's, cuts made, etc. He also has the more consistent recent form and by far the better course form (Allenby has yet to beat Cink in the five times that they both played this event). Florida form is not an issue as they both have shown ability to perform in the state but in terms of h2h stats Cink leads over 3 years 24-15-2, over 12 months 11-3-0 and over 3 months 2-0-0 it is a surprise to see that Cink is not a clear favourite here. Certainly wasn't expecting odds as good as these. Scott Verplank to beat Stuart Appleby -110 @ BetInternet & Ladbrokes
It's always nice to find a value bet with a player as reliable as Verplank. Yet again this season he's been a model of consistency and he has excellent form in Florida, averaging 3 FP's better in this state and has finished in the top 10 in over 20% of his starts in Florida. Appleby does have a second place finish in this event in 2004 (Verplank was 3rd) but generally finishes 4 places worse off in Florida, with an average FP of 36.3 compared with Verplanks average of 27. The h2h's read well for Verplank as well (3 years: 26-13-4, 12 months: 10-5-2, 3 months: 1-0-0, course: 2-2-0). Verplank should be around the -125 mark here and given his consistency this looks to be a sound bet.
Daniel Chopra to beat Ian Poulter -120 @ Stan James
Chopra is another player who plays well in Florida who is up against, well Poulter. Chopra is in a fine run of form and in the last 2 years in Florida he has finishes of 37-38-40-21-10-20-13. He has never played the course before but he is long and puts well, especially this season where he has put in some excellent putting displays. Poulter has missed the cut in 50% of his starts on the PGA tour, his record in Florida reads mc-33-mc-mc-mc-mc-41 and has missed the cut in his two starts here. Chopra also clearly outperforms Poulter on the h2h's by 12-2-0 over the last 3 years. He may be odds on but Chopra is a member here at Bay Hill and should be a lot shorter to be someone of Poulters ability.
Pat Perez to beat Bubba Watson -108 @ 5Dimes Watson is turning into a bit of an enigma, hugely long and has great GIR stats but his inaccuracy off the tee and his putting generally let him down badly. With the rough being a lot thicker this week it's not going to suit Bubba and if his driving is as wayward as it can be he could be in for a torrid time. Given the high likelihood that Bubba will miss the cut I'll play against him with Perez. He has some superb form in Florida where his average finishing position is almost 10 places better. He has decent enough current form after finishing 12th in the Honda last week and he has shown the ability to handle the course form after finishing 9th in 2002 and 10th in 2003. Justin Rose to beat Trevor Immelman -110 @ SportingOdds We opposed Immelman last week based on his shocking Florida form and he did us proud by missing the cut yet again. So it would be silly not to continue and given Rose is generally reliable enough to make the cut this seems to be a decent enough price. Rose did miss the cut last time out but has only missed the cut 20% of the time on the tour which is incredibly low and nearly on a par with a player of the ability of say Adam Scott. He's played this course 3 times before and achieved finishes of 56-24-68. Nothing spectacular, but given Immelman's Florida form of mc-mc-46-mc-mc-mc-64-mc and his course form of two missed cuts out of three and Rose leading the h2h stats 15-9-0 over the last 3 years he should be the favourite here. Matchup bets: (Total Stake 1pt) Ernie Els to beat Tiger Woods +214 @ Pinnacle Vijay Singh to beat Tiger Woods +214 @ Pinnacle |
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