Summary: 11 Bets, 6 Wins, 5 Losses,  P&L = +38.1 Pts.

Tournament Trades

Update: Sell Henrik Stenson FP at 71 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts

I hate closing a bet early but in weighing up all the possibilities here it may be prudent to do so in this instance. Stenson is a 67 today away from making the cut and although that is unlikely it is not impossible. If he does miss the cut then he will M/U at the total who do, +1. That figure could be anything from 71 to 90 although is likelier to be nearer the bottom end of that range.

Buy Padraig Harrington FP at 30 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 12 Pts

Buy Luke Donald FP at 25.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 12, Loss 8.28 Pts

Going to oppose Harrington and Donald this week for the exact same reasons. Both players will quietly fancy themselves for next week and this could affect their thinking this week. If they are in contention then they will give this 100% of course, but if come late in R2 they are down the field you wonder if they will then mentally switch off their effort this week and concentrate on next week. Even if they make the cut they may see R3 and R4 as practice days rather than attempting to finish in the highest possible place. Couple that with very poor performances last week, and also the fact that the prices may reflect an expectation that they will receive support and we have value in both prices. The downside is that this field is pretty poor in depth of quality so the chances of them having a good week are probably higher than in most events, but the positives for the bets outweigh the negatives.

Buy Arron Oberholser FP at 32 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 37.5 Profit 3.3 Pts

Similar reasoning here, with Oberholser qualifying for Augusta he will have that in the back of his mind. An additional worry for Oberholser though is the fact he was leading at Sawgrass last week only to capitulate over the weekend to fall from 1^st to T45. In the case of all 3 players, they have good course form, with four top 10’s in the last 3 years between them and good current form also with Donald and Oberholser winners in 2006 and Harrington also posting a couple of good results. If it wasn’t for the Masters being next week I would probably want a lower price in this field but all 3 quotes are just low enough to warrant interest.

Buy Bo Van Pelt FP at 32.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 28.5, Loss 2.22 Pts

This is a player I have backed myself on the exchanges to win the event, but his FP price is possibly pitched a little low as too much notice has been given to his performance last week on a very different course set-up to this. Never better than 25^th here, Van Pelt is a touch of value at this price although he will be giving this 100% with no thoughts ahead to next week as he will be doing what the rest of us are doing, watching the Masters at home.

Buy Jose Maria Olazabal FP at 30 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 2.5, Loss 8.1 Pts

Olly was 2^nd here last year and had a good finish last week at Sawgrass. However, last year I feel he maybe took advantage of the conditions, and certainly it is his only good performance at this venue, having finished cut/37/27/cut/45 in five previous starts. Last years performance hurt in a variety of ways as he was poor in last years Masters having been through the emotional turmoil here of having this event virtually won only to throw it away. Like Donald and Harrington, his attitude may slacken dramatically if not in contention from the off.

Buy John Rollins FP at 31.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 11.1 Pts
Strangely Rollins has two top 10’s here followed by two missed cuts, and like Olazabal performed well last week to finish 8^th which is his 4^th Top 20 of the year so far. As stated above though, current form on Sawgrass shows a player is playing well but they are going this week to a totally different layout. At the price though, with the extra 1.5pts taken off it is a good addition to the list this week.

Buy Henrik Stenson FP at 33 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 71 (Closed early) Profit 22.8 Pts
In all honesty, four or five of the prices this week are probably more value at Sporting Index than at the firms advised. However, the fact that the total risk involved is great enough at the prices quoted, than had we advised them on Sporting’s system of scoring. Stenson, though, is 33 at Sporting and best priced 29 elsewhere and this low difference forces me towards Sporting. Henrik has played three times now on this tour having finished 77^th 47^th and 3^rd and those figures suggest the allowance Sporting give for him finishing worse than 50^th should be higher than 4pts. A great 3^rd place on Sunday means popularity for this week but a first trip to Augusta must be on his mind.

Round One Trades

Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Jeff Brehaut 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 6 Pts

Sell Ian Poulter over Jeff Brehaut 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.8 Pts

An example again of a price based on familiarity. Brehaut has made 4 cuts of 5 here and has made 19 of 34 in total since the start of 2005. Poulter has made 7 of 12 in the same time, and Jimenez gave up on this tour long before then having only made 20 of 41 since the start of 01’ when he came over here full time. Yes, both the Europeans are better players than Brehaut but this is a home tie, if you like, for Brehaut and he shouldn’t be the outsider by as much as he is in both quotes.

Sell J.B. Holmes over Heath Slocum 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.4 Pts
Holmes continues to disappoint on this tour since winning in Phoenix when he was lauded as the next big thing in Golf. 51/cut/48/38 is his results since then and although Slocum hasn’t done much in that time he is under-priced here.

Sell Henrik Stenson over Billy Andrade 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -31, Profit 11.7 Pts
Comments above show why we are against Stenson, and he is particularly high here at 8 against Andrade who plays here most years and has made 67% of cuts in that time.